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Replies: 41 / Views: 3,810 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Quote:Yet if you look at the Dollar index (DX), the dollar is higher than when the latest fall of silver occurred. It isn't the dollar decreasing that is causing the increase in PM, but the increasing uncertainty of the foreign side. I watch this chart as much as some of you watch Kitco. http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750 That looks interesting, but the link always seems to be loading for me. Do I need to sign in or something?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
860 Posts |
No, I have been reloading it all morning, but at times it is a little slower as it is on cnbc site and I think it has a lower priority level than the main pages. No sub needed. Interesting numbers today with gold doing so well, USD has gained about 14% against the German 5 year bond. Things are getting scarier every day in Europe.IMO.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Ok, now it works for me...my browser needed a little help with it.
Wow, that is dramatic move with the German 5 year. What's up with that?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
860 Posts |
If one of the larger Eurounion member defaults, who is the most logical to help out~ Germany. This situation will affect gold more than silver I think, but it will eventually crash most of the world banks if it isn't checked soon. The price of gold has increased proportionally for the main currencies, not just related to the USD. Most large money multinationals don't deal in gold, they deal in the foreign exchange markets jumping to the currency that seems safest. The USD seems to rank high in that area currently.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
It amazing to me how much credit the US dollar gets as a safe currency with such a load of debt and possible ratings down grades pending. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
The first Domino's got knocked into motion....
Edited by Silverhawk74 07/18/2011 8:50 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Quote: The first Domino's got knocked into motion.... What was that Silverhawk? I've been working on the car.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
I just meant the pieces in Europe are starting to truly crumble, via more than just Italy and Greece, and perhaps I am way off(might just be the conspiracy theorist in me always looking for the worst outcome), but I have a gut feeling this is the beginning of the end of the Euro and maybe the dollar as well....
Of course resulting in these huge increases in gold and silver, which I like most probably believe it will continue up, unless they pull a rabbit out of a magic hat, not just in Europe but here in the US as well....
And no one seems to be stepping up to the plate with the idea that will fix all this mess, that is obviously a worldwide issue now, not just an isolated country's....
Many a big bank in France and Germany will bite the bullet if Greece does what I think they are gonna do.....
Edited by Silverhawk74 07/18/2011 9:06 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: Things are getting scarier every day in Europe.IMO.  I'm wondering if they will get to a point where they HAVE to cut some of the bankrupt countries loose before they pull down their whole system? Am also wondering if they have a plan to deal with the PIIGS going bankrupt? Clearly, Germany and France cannot afford to save all of them. They can save the small fry but not countries the size of Spain or Italy. So... will they let them out of the European Union or will they try in vain to save them and lose it all? Unfortunately for us, there is already a defacto world banking system that has developed from the US dollar, Euro, and Yen. We are all interrelated now and it may not be possible to separate them in the event of a systemic Euro crash. That could very well pull us and the Japanese down with them. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: It amazing to me how much credit the US dollar gets as a safe currency with such a load of debt and possible ratings down grades pending. Yes, it is. A lot of that derives from the history of the 20th century, also known as "the American century". We became a major world power and then a super power, both economically and militarily. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. One part of this status is that the USA is the only country on Earth that does not have to exchange its currency into some other currency in order to settle international purchases. All other countries that do not use the US dollar as their currency DO have to do this, although the Russians and the Chinese are doing trade in their own currencies in some cases now. Financially, it is a bigger deal than most people think. If we were to lose WRC status, it is likely that ALL prices in the USA would move upwards by 25-30% because without WRC status, the dollar would be in far less demand. As Econ 101 shows, as demand for something declines, so does its price. Additionally, the US dollar has been the WRC because war has not touched our shores in any significant way, we have a relatively stable political system, we have always paid our debts or serviced them on time, and the currency exists in sufficient quantity that it can be used in international trade... unlike the stronger Canadian and Australian dollars, the Swiss Franc, etc. These are excellent currencies but they do not have the volume needed for world trade. The Chinese currency may have a shot at WRC status at some point. They are exhibiting the same strengths that the USA did when its currency took WRC status from the British pound sterling. They may not quite be ready for that but it may not be too much longer before they are.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
860 Posts |
Quote: although the Russians and the Chinese are doing trade in their own currencies in some cases now Do you have reference on this, as I checked MICEX, the Russian exchange said to do this, and could find nothing indicating it is currently operating. I had heard that the Chinese would not give transparency on their currency, so the Russians decided to keep their oil in USD pricing. This is the main reason that even with fiat waving between the countries, the Chinese will have to be transparent to the other countries if they wish to be the WRC. I suspect they have as many problems as the Euro nations, just the gov. can make what ever rules they wish, and keep quiet on their desertification, droughts, water pollution, lax mining and food regs, etc.Their only hope is to annex an oil producing area, since they have practically none. Hmmm, maybe Iran. :) The scariest part is that the members of eurozone (the countries that use and print euros) are: Austria,Belgium,Cyprus,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Ireland,Italy,Luxembourg,Malta,Netherlands,Portugal,Slovakia,Slovenia,Spain. So what happens to the value of the euro if Greece or Spain or Italy starts the Euro printing press running for their own QE? IMO.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: Do you have reference on this, as I checked MICEX, the Russian exchange said to do this, and could find nothing indicating it is currently operating. If you do a Google search for "Russia China world reserve currency", all manner of articles will show up, including the one at: http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...na-Deal.htmlMany other articles will also come up but I grabbed this one as an example. Both Russia and China are exporting countries and significant world creditors. They are not liking what they see happening to the US dollar or the Euro. Getting paid for their manufacturing or their raw materials in currencies that are shrinking visibly is something that they would prefer to avoid if they can. I don't know how extensive this non-dollar / non-Euro trade is but it is likely significant and should become more so with time. I'm just wondering how long it will be before the oil exporting countries demand payment in commodities instead of currencies. Hmmm... let's see now... yep, 1/16th of an oz. of gold will buy a barrel of oil.  Quote: I suspect they have as many problems as the Euro nations, just the gov. can make what ever rules they wish, and keep quiet on their desertification, droughts, water pollution, lax mining and food regs, etc. Probably so. They are a lot better at keeping their problems from view, though. Quote: So what happens to the value of the euro if Greece or Spain or Italy starts the Euro printing press running for their own QE? IMO. My understanding of the Euro is that no one country can decide to roll the printing presses on its own and that they have to vote on currency increases and decreases. I do not know whether a simple majority decides these issues, though. Perhaps a super-majority of some kind would be needed? Quote: Their only hope is to annex an oil producing area, since they have practically none. Hmmm, maybe Iran. :) Well, I don't know why they wouldn't try that. They gobbled up mineral-rich Tibet and there was hardly a squeak of protest from the other countries of the world. Heh... maybe they will take a bite out of Siberia... the part that has oil.  Just remembered something... there are very large oil deposits in the south China sea. (see Spratly and Paracel Islands) The Chinese are having some difficulties with this because a number of nations in that region are claiming sovereignty in the areas that are most promising for oil drilling. Their only problem is that none of them have the drilling technology to get it... but the USA and the UK do.  Also, China is working with Cuba to tap into Gulf of Mexico areas that could hold significant oil deposits. (see http://www.havana-guide.com/china-cuba-oil.html) A Google search of "China Cuba Oil" should show a number of other articles. China would LOVE to tap this oil and take it from under our noses, if at all possible. Perhaps we would reciprocate with oil drilling in the deepest areas of the south China sea? Gamemanship... deja vu all over again. :-/
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Pillar of the Community
United States
511 Posts |
Dream on if you expect silver to drop to $20 or less.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1026 Posts |
Well I remember buying my first silver so many years ago I forget but that year was a silver bull market and I paid $16.00 per ounce and then silver fell back to $8.00 took 25 years before silver got back to what I paid for it again.
Now the last time I bought silver paid $33.00 per ounce for it hope it gets back to $30 maybe I will buy more but have allot I say to myself how much is enough?
Anyway I am 62 years old and do not ever thing the economy will recover in my life time, my kids are 31 and 36 I don't think the economy will ever recover in their life time and my two grandsons are four and I hope it recovers in their life time but not sure even about that.
If you have looked at the big picture of the USA then you can see there is only one way our economy it headed down we have not hit the bottom yet. Just today you see thousands of more people getting lay-ed off. We have never recovered from the 2008 crisis just slowed it a little the only fix I could see back then and now is for a total collapse of our economy so it can get back to reality. I hope this does not happen but almost see no hope anymore of anything to stop it.
So my feeling is we will see silver go to $100 by the end of 2012 and then it may go up more, now I am by far any economist just saying what I see. Just my 2 cents.
I sure hope I am wrong but have been preparing also in away that no matter what happens my preparations will not go to waist.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Bruce - you and I are contemporaries. I will be age 62 in about 3 weeks!  I agree with your comments, probably in large part because we have both lived through the same history. Silver and gold can be looked at in many ways. For me, they are part insurance against financial disaster, part collectibles, part inflation fighter, and part a store of value. Having already seen the dollar shrink in buying power from $1 to about $0.03 within my lifetime, I am VERY unimpressed with the people running this country and have been for about 30 years now. I do not see how these incompetent thieves can get us out of the mess that they have created. Because of this, I am taking action to do my own saving. If I can use PMs to protect my family from the worst that comes along, then it will have been worth the time, money, and effort dedicated to it. If by some miracle we manage to avoid financial disaster, then my PMs will still have value in fighting inflation and preserving the wealth that I have accumulated. In order to understand our current situation, one must eliminate the lies that we are told on a daily basis. First, we are NOT in a recession. We are in a depression but the government will NOT admit it. A depression is a deep recession with persistently high unemployment. Sounding familiar? Additionally, we do NOT have 9.2% unemployment. A very detailed analysis of US employment is available on https://www.shadowstats.com and it clearly shows that US unemployment is in the area of 16-18%... and that it is trending higher, not lower. Finally, we are told that the US currently has 3.2% inflation. This is yet another bald-faced lie. REAL inflation in the US is now at 9-10% when REAL numbers are used instead of the cooked books used by Bernanke and the federal government. That the talking heads on TV parrot the government figures over and over is a complete disgrace to their profession. Apparently, they subscribe to the Big Lie Theory, which repeats a lie so often that it becomes accepted as truth. Once we have determined what the truth of our situation is, we can take sensible action to improve it. For me, that means collecting physical PMs and using a good fraction of the paper investments I have to do it. I am not rooting for a financial collapse of the Euro or the dollar. That would be a terrible situation that would do great harm to many of our fellow citizens. I will not allow such a collapse to harm my family, though. I will do this by being prepared in case it occurs. If it doesn't happen, that will be GREAT! But if it does, being prepared will be MUCH better than not being prepared. I don't know that silver will go to $100 by the end of next year. It is a pretty safe bet that silver and gold will trend higher as the world's primary currencies (US dollar, Euro, and Yen) trend lower over time. At the very least, having PMs means that a good part of a person's wealth can be protected from the ravages of inflation. Speaking of inflation, we have only seen the leading edge of that storm. Much more will soon follow. It is not possible to create trillions of fiat dollars out of thin air, "inject" them into the economy, and not expect severe repercussions from that action. Econ 101 tells us that the more common something is, the less value it has. Does this somehow not apply to currency? Hardly. It applies to EVERYTHING, including currencies. We cannot double or triple the amount of money in the economy without it producing inflation. The economists tell us that the definition of inflation is increasing amounts of money chasing the same or fewer amounts of goods and services. A trip to the local gas station, grocery store, pharmacy, and many other places will clearly demonstrate the power of inflation... Uncle Ben's comments notwithstanding.
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Replies: 41 / Views: 3,810 |
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