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 Replies: 20 / Views: 2,715 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
I have been thinking a lot lately about trading some silver for gold. So,I decided to do a little "cipherin'". Using yesterdays numbers at close and today" numbers at 8:15 am(taken from the APMEX newsletter page)I calculated yesterdays gains comparing 1 oz. of gold with a dollar equivalent of silver,the amount of silver it would take to buy an ounce of gold. The silver to gold ratio at close yesterday was 40.5:1. Gold gained $25.90/oz since yesterdays close. Silver gained $1.05/oz since yesterdays close. So,comparing apples to apples,silver gained $42.54 when compared to $25.90 for the same"dollar value" of gold. I am going to try to do this comparison each morning for a couple of weeks before I make my gold trade decision. Any comments or flaws in my approach would be greatly appreciated! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
931 Posts |
Silver on a good day can move 3 or 4% and possibly more. For gold to go up 4% it would have to go up $65 today( off the top of my head). That's why I have gold and silver but dollar wise I'm much more heavily invested in gold, I guess mainly because I was poor as a kid and dreamed of collecting gold coins. I even used to chew bubble gum that came wrapped in a gold foil coin shape. I think they will both do well lookin forward, but in an emergency like if the cops ever catch up with me, I would rather put my gold in the glove box instead of filling my trunk with silver.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Sounds like a good plan, you could also look backward at the numbers over the last month.
I haven't got exact numbers on it but I know silver has gone up more than gold %wise in the last month and is up around 20-22%
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Valued Member
United States
228 Posts |
hockinzig:
This decision depends on what your personal reality is... I know that in the past year silver has gained more % wise than gold. But I also feel that silver is on its way up (now that players like JP Morgan) are losing control of the silver paper markets (which have been manipulated for many years).
I personally believe that silver is on its' way back to its historical relationship to gold of about 16-1. That means that silver in an unmanipulated market should be above $100 an ounce right now...
You wont get hurt badly by switching from silver to gold - but I do believe you would be making a mistake...
Best,
LastGold
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Valued Member
United States
397 Posts |
I keep seeing where everyone thinks silver is underpriced - and I keep hearing about this mythical 16-1 ratio. In reality, that 16-1 ratio was artificially kept in place by the government and to my way of thinking is therefore suspect as any true indicator.
But, assuming we do go back to a 16-1 ratio, why does no one ever think that maybe gold is overpriced and that it should be around $650/ounce? The way things are going, I expect gold to cross the platinum price line soon - and why would that happen if gold was not overpriced?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1026 Posts |
Waredu, good point I want to buy more gold but just can't bring myself to buy at these prices.
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Valued Member
Canada
183 Posts |
Gold up $24.00 today,maybe reach 1800.00 at the end of this year.Roll the dice and go for it?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
931 Posts |
 Dennis Gartman and Pete Najarian both said they would stay in the Gold play. To quote Gartman he said that the chart has been from the bottom left to the upper right and he sees no reason for it to change. They said that Gold is rising against all currencies as the currencies continue to show their extreme weakness. Also more central banks are jumping in on the trade. They also said that one of the strongest signs was that I bought an ounce yesterday. Edited by junior e
08/03/2011 12:55 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
LOL thanks for doing your part yesterday junior.
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Valued Member
United States
397 Posts |
Gold is up $5.80 from the open - but platinum is down $17.00. I'm not sure I've ever seen them so close, percentage-wise.
I still think gold has a ways to run up, but my gut tells me it's gonna fall hard sooner or later. Like 25% hard.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2602 Posts |
The 16:1 ratio I think stems in part from silver being about 15x more abundant than gold in the earth's crust.
If you are buying gold or silver right now, be sure it is money you don't need to liquidate in the short term, because I agree, with these historic highs, a dramatic pull back is very possbile. If you buy, be ready to absorb a big drop and still want to hold it because you want to have it.
All that said, I think there is still room to grow for both metals, given the world economic situations. And I think silver is especially underpriced, with China buying huge amounts for its industrial applications.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5832 Posts |
If Gold ever drop 25%, you can be sure I will buy as much as I can afford.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
667 Posts |
I wish gold would dip by 25%. Still kicking my self for buying gold conservatively over the past two years.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1450 Posts |
Thanks for the input folks,I really do appreciate it. My dilemma is that it is easier to replenish the silver supply bit by bit than to buy an ounce of gold in one fell swoop. Right now my silver to gold ratio is about 10:1 so if I took 41 ounces of silver and swapped it for an ounce of gold it would be easier down the road to restore my 10:1 ratio by buying a few ounces every couple of weeks. So, if gold really is climbing faster(which is the perception)I want to take advantage of it while I can without risking a bunch of "new money" all at once. I have been standing pat for about 5 months now and I've got a bad case of the PM itch that needs to be scratched.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
860 Posts |
When you go back and read postings about silver prior to the May crash ( or correction if the word "crash" bothers you) and see the number of people who expected it to continue to $100 in a short time. Looking back we can see that there was plenty of the " I can afford to buy silver for investment" and little for gold. That was IMO, pure speculation and the market showed it.Silver may gain more on a daily basis, but the opposite is true also. I am in a minority I am sure as I expect gold to hit 1800 before silver hits 50 again.Gold is considered a financial asset by people and countries. But I , as others, do not know when this will be. I feel that Europe and the BRIC nations are worse off than the US by far. The push for gold for stability will come from this area rather than mainly the US ( yes, some will also come from the US I am sure). If 10% of your savings/investments allow you to buy 5 oz of gold, then do it. If not, but will allow 5 oz. of silver than do that. IMO.
jIM
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
I feel like trying to sell all the silver an jump to gold is a safe wise move, but then if silver breaches 100 an oz. by Christmas, one may be kicking themselves, as the profits would be huge in favor of silver. Esp if you are one of these wise folk that got in at 10 to 20 an oz. on silver.... I am just gonna keep a little of both and add more of each when I can, and keep watchin....  Edited by Silverhawk74
08/03/2011 6:38 pm
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Replies: 20 / Views: 2,715 |
Posted 08/03/2011 11:53 am
