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 Replies: 11 / Views: 1,697 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4989 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
787 Posts |
Honestly,
I think silver may decrease if the world economy does not improve. Here is my basic model for this
theory.
Bad Economy = Less Jobs = Less Money Being Spend = Less Demand for Anything including Silver = LOWER Silver Price
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Kind of an old chart, it would be interesting to see an up to date one showing the recent bounce in the US$ and pull backs in silver.
I tend to agree with Ken, silver has an industrial metal side that a depression could be bad for demand/price.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
558 Posts |
I don't think we can really guess based on that chart. Keeping in mind that past performance isn't always indicative of future results. However I'm still bullish on silver and think the dollar will stay weak.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
4989 Posts |
Well I think what the chart show is that the dollar is only 20-25% below its normal 4-decade trading range. Silver, by contrast, is 1000% higher than its normal trading range.
Fear has its place but I'd really strongly caution anyone against investing money you can't easily afford to lose in the metal at these levels. An 80% wipe is not only possible but very likely.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1150 Posts |
Here is why silver will increase in value:
Fiat paper money worth nothing except toilet paper value=Silver worth more in relation to said fiat money due to silvers thousands year old history as a monetary metal.
I'm curious as to why an 80% fall is likely?
When fiat dollars crash, and demand for industrial products containing silver falls, and gold becomes unobtainable for most as a safe haven for wealth, silver will once again reign as the 'poor mans gold' and its value, in relation to ANY fiat currency, will reflect that.
I think long term, silvers industrial demand and value will factor less and less into its price. It is, after all, a monetary metal.
Edited by mitchhailey
09/12/2011 1:51 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2120 Posts |
the other thing to keep in mind is, over the course of that chart... what was the use of silver.
To clarify in the 2000's (mostly the last few years) We've seen a big increase in industrial demand and a decrease in silver reclamation.
Though this chart seems scary, its not indicative of realistic values and relative uses.
Besides, this is where diversity covers you. Have many different investments where the projected gain of one, covers the potential loss of another. I know this isn't easy to achieve , but if you even try at it, you minimize your over all risk.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2120 Posts |
You know.. the more and more I look at that chart.. the more ridiculous it becomes.
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
Quote:
You know.. the more and more I look at that chart.. the more ridiculous it becomes. Thanks. Thot it was just me. Silver expressed in current (non-adjusted) dollars. USD expressed as ? |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote:
Fear has its place but I'd really strongly caution anyone against investing money you can't easily afford to lose in the metal at these levels. An 80% wipe is not only possible but very likely. Yes, fear does have its place in that it argues in favor of caution... which is generally a useful thing. As to investing, no one should invest ANY money that they cannot afford to lose in ANYTHING, not just PMs. An "80% wipe", as you say, is possible but just barely. Think of ALL of the other things that would have to get MUCH stronger for this to happen. The position of where the US dollar would have to be to make this true isn't even on this chart. The recent tiny rise in the US dollar vs. other fiat currencies is so small as to be pathetic when people point to it and say, "See, the dollar is rising!". Rising? Holy cow, people... any of the rest of you remember when a Euro was worth about US $0.85? I do. Now it is worth about $1.35... that's roughly 60% less than back in the day when we really did have a strong dollar. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2120 Posts |
Quote:
Silver expressed in current (non-adjusted) dollars.
USD expressed as ? Exactly my thoughts. I was thinking, ok Compare Silver and the USD. Wait, compared to each other, with out account for variable change in relative comparison over time. $50 in 1980 sure doesn't equal $50 in 2011. Now if they compared the USD and Silver in ounces against a static comparison, say Gold, that would be more useful. For instance. Number of ounces of silver it took to buy one ounce of gold in 1970-2011 number of USD it took to buy one ounce of Gold in 1970-2011 Ive taken the liberty of making this chart in Paint. 'paints' quite a different picture. <pun intended>   |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2120 Posts |
The other thing to really note that is interesting is 1980. We all know what it peaked to, but the cost average for the year was only about $20/oz. Versus the above chart pegging the Value at $50.
My sources for info were
silverinstitute.org
kitco.com
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Replies: 11 / Views: 1,697 |
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Posted 09/12/2011 11:02 am
