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Replies: 49 / Views: 4,127 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5862 Posts |
Hmmm...
My point is that we didn't actually have the "sharp drop" that was experienced last time. We did see a drop after it nearly hit $50 this time around, but it wasn't all that sharp and has apparently plateaued around $30.
Again, I agree anything could happen, but I really don't think the similarities are as pronounced as you seem to think they are.
Edited by barryg 10/18/2012 3:32 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
It was a pretty hard fall from 50 imo. Maybe not as fast but the graphs are a bit misleading just because of spacing so its hard to really tell. The 80s graph covers 5 years in the about the same amount of space the other one covers 2 so theres not as much detail.
Plus remember inflation as well. 50 in the 80s was worth more so Silver was actually higher then and it leveled out around 15 for a while back then which Id guess is very close to what 30 is now.
I agree no two situations are exactly the same, but they do have a lot of things in common.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5862 Posts |
Yep, that's why I included that third chart so the spacing would be the same for both spikes: 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: Theres a ton of potential reasons... Yes, there are but are any of them realizing their potential or are they just spinning their wheels and going nowhere? Seems as if all of the news that we get on this is that those on the short side are making money and those on the long side are getting screwed. After a while, even a bankster would get out of such trades and not ever get in there again... or, in this case, a brokster. I'm with Ann Barnhardt on this one. The futures market is rigged BIG-TIME and if you don't want to personally experience an MF Global moment, you should take your money and get the #!$!#@ outta there.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Barry the humps are about as close as you can get without replicating. Dont forget the 80s spike scare died off when Carter lost and Reagan won so in a little over 3 weeks well see. If Obama wins thatll be the first significant difference between the two that could lead to a possible prolonged rate increase Quote: Seems as if all of the news that we get on this is that those on the short side are making money and those on the long side are getting screwed. After a while, even a bankster would get out of such trades and not ever get in there again... or, in this case, a brokster.
As long as a tax breaks or potential favors from people who want you invested in silver outweigh the losses theyd come out on top either way. If they got in a while ago though theyre just playing with house money right now anyway and may be waiting for the election or 2012 scare or next great spike to sell. They have the luxury of being able to asses the loss gain from a lot of angles the average investor whose just looking at it from pure dollars doesn't have
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: They have the luxury of being able to asses the loss gain from a lot of angles the average investor whose just looking at it from pure dollars doesn't have Indeed... and the BIG money that plays in these markets can stay solvent a LOT longer than the rest of us, so their time scale can be much different from ours and still work out in their favor. We are the mice among the dinos... so we need to be wary and nimble lest we be stepped upon! 
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Exactly. The right move for them isn't necessarily the right move for us. Whole different ballgame
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Comparing 1980 to today is like comparing a Pinto to a Ferrari....
To compare them, for one silver would have needed to bottom all the way out to 3 or 4 dollars per oz., in order to make that comparison, verses catching solid support in mid 20's, SEVERAL different times in last 3 years....
I will bend over backwards and kiss each and EVERYONE of your all's backsides if silver EVER drops below 20 per oz. again....
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Read the 80s graph from left to right it did the same thing as now, just backwards. It caught support a few times well above where it had been. The spikes were also higher back then taking into account inflation. But ill let you off the hook with the kiss when it does lol
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Pillar of the Community
United States
863 Posts |
OOOO be careful hawk. Dont let those words come to bite you in the future. 19.99 is below 20 and anything can happen with the way the stock market is run. you may have a lot of brown nosing to do.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1590 Posts |
 ..at Hawk... Come on it's almost exactly the same. It is just the vehicle that has changed. In 1980 it was manipulation via the physical market. Now it is manipulation of the paper market. It is just that they have learned to be better manipulators. Ya do know that all you have to do to raise the spot price, if you are a big pockets trader, is to enter the market 'heavy' enough. And to short it all you have to do is exit the market 'heavy' enough. And if you do it with a group of like minded 'big boys', then you can control the price at will. The only reason it is where it is at is because the big boys are making money. Once it is not profitable anymore they will move on to the next big money maker. No strategy last forever. Remember you have to have sheep to fleece to make this work. And after so many crashes you have less and less sheep. Eventually they will short the market one to many times and run out of sheep. You can chart things; you can talk about fundamentals, and supply and demand. But in the end it is ONLY market manipulation by the really rich to make themselves mo money, mo money, mo money. Everything else is spin and propaganda by the big boys to get enough sheep to go long. And if you think the rich won't screw the system to make money...does Madoff, Lehman bro, Goldman Sachs, or MFwhatever it was, ring a bell? These were not the odd 'bad' players. These were just the unlucky ones... Personally I am interested to see what happens Sunday when the markets open. Are the majority of sheep hoping this is just another in an endless number of 'corrections' and stick to their guns. Or do they worry that this is a downtrend and bail?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
I wish it would dip below 20, daring it to so I could really stock up.....
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
As long as there is economic upheaval which most likely they always will be in our lifetimes, G @ S will continue to soar....
When I see prosperity like the USA did perhaps in the middle of the Clinton era (at least in my 38 years I can recall no better time economically speaking), then I will buy in to sub 20 silver again....
Until that pipe dream day comes, I am stacking away with little concerns, as I have a baby coming and by the time I pass it all on to him and I am dust and gone, good chance G @ S will be worth a bit more then what I paid for it back in the early part of this new century....
Even if I am wrong and it aint worth the effort to put it in the hypothetical wheel barrel and leave outside the bank only for the thieves to come along and dumb the bullion and take the wheel barrel, I will win in the end. Via the tails you hear about post world war II Germany. Why will I win, cause its just material possessions which really mean nothing in the bigger picture of the world....
How often do I point to the story of a WEALTHY late friend of my fathers (long since past on now) who became terminal and said he would trade it all in for his health, as he had a formula he could use again to get back on top again financially, but his health was irreplaceable....
When the doc tells you that you are terminal, nothing else matters material wise anymore, minus what you leave your family to make their journey more manageable....
Edited by Silverhawk74 10/20/2012 11:20 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Theres always been economic upheaval. Every 10-20 years weve seen a recession/depression since the mid 1800s. With really the exception of the smooth sailing in the 90s from the internet boom, weve seen this pretty much every decade, happened in the early 80s, in the 70s, in the 60s, in the mid 50s ect. Theres similarities and differences between all the ones before, and this one probably will be a little harder to get out of because the world is so technology oriented now a lot of the manual labor jobs are gone. But one way or another the world will come out of it because it has too. If they just have to cook the books and rewrite the rules to save everything they will. The alternative is the human race being set back a 1000 years.
That said it will have value and you will be passing something of value onto your family that can help make their life easier which is the important part. And I agree completely that health is the most important, I'm 28 and has a knee surgery give me a blood clot in my leg that has completely changed my life. I would trade every dollar/coin/material possession I have to be 100 percent healthy again. I can get the other things back in time, the most important things in life you wont necessarily be able to get back and far to many people take it for granted and think possessions are what life is all about.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3540 Posts |
Hawk - some wise words.
Believe many of you are have the same question that I do. What can I do NOW, to help myself later? (monetarily or investment wise)
Very, very hard question to answer, as nothing is cast in stone. There is NO guarantee of anything.
I am stacking some silver for the long run. How I am putting some back? Buying whatever I can, selling what I need to cover the cost of the purchase, and putting the balance back. So, zero is invested (other than time). I cannot buy all the time, so this is also a limiting factor.
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Replies: 49 / Views: 4,127 |