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Replies: 162 / Views: 18,166 |
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Valued Member
United States
81 Posts |
I can't see any way they'll sell this for the same price as last year's set, given the expenses to develop the enhanced uncirculated coin. Assuming the RP costs about the same to produce as last year, and the enhanced uncirc coin being more costly than the S proof, my guess is more around the $179.95 mark. There's no doubt they'll sell more of these than the SF set, but if the enhanced uncirc looks great in hand, the increased demand should help it in the secondary market.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
899 Posts |
I just read they are going to use a new laser on this set to help create the frosted fields on this set. Apparently the laser got it's first use on the new General commemorative gold and silver pieces, so I don't think the cost needs to be recovered all at once - and it sounds like the process is going to be around to stay. The price of silver is down from last spring - I didn't look but I suspect it is at least 6 or 7 dollars less. So unless the mint plans on limiting production numbers even more by an inflated price - on an already planned controlled 30 day release - I still believe these will be $149 or at the most $159 (for the added price gouging a supposed increase in costs).
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Im skeptical of any true added cost from the new version. Whatever new method they use it wont just be used on that and then tossed away like Doug mentioned. I also dont believe they bought anything specifically for that rather just used something they already had purchased/upgraded in a new way. The engravers probably have to spend more time on the dyes, but I believe they are salaried and not paid by the hour anyway
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2764 Posts |
I agree with most that the price should NOT be more than $149.95, based on all reasons mentioned. Also, considering the regular proof is at around $60-$65 the last few year, that's equal to $120-$130, the box doesn't cost them $20 to get. The laser edging/engraving technology is nothing new (look at the Poland's Mint created the 3-D Mercury 6oz silver coin).
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2543 Posts |
This is what I don't understand, people are willing to pay $99.95 for a Canadian Maple Canopy coin or $108 for a Mythical Creatures coin or $98 for an Aurora Australis coin, but cringe at the thought of this unique , one of a kind set going for more than $150. What if the mintage was only 25000, would you pay $240 ? Despite what spot silver is, the price will not be less than last year's SF set. And the SF set was a kind of lack luster set. I see this set at $179.00. My worry is that this set is going to attract many new or fringe collectors because of this new coin, and the mintage totals are going to skyrocket.
Edited by denco7 04/05/2013 10:42 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2764 Posts |
The difference is this set doesn't have a fix mintage, that uncertainty weighted down the value of the set when the buyer consider buying it. Also, compare to Perth Mint or RCM coins with mintage in the 10K range is not appropriate. Just look at the 1995-W Proof selling in the $3000-$4000 range (mintage was around 30K). I bet that if the mintage is 25K, I am pretty sure it will be sold out in weeks even if the price is $500. I don't mind $240 for this set if the mintage is 30K or less.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
If the mintage was 25k people would pay 240 or probably even 340 in a heart beat. If they ever set a mintage like that the set wouldnt survive the day before being sold out, look how fast 100k for the 2011 set went. Like mentioned those mints work off of low mintage high premiums and really have the exact opposite model for how they produce stuff.
Really the only thing worse than setting a mintage too high is setting an unlimited mintage. The idea that as many could be made as ordered does cheapen the set to an extent, it can still be beautiful but minting things to demand seems more like circulated coinage than a collectors issue deserving of a high premium.
The 2012 set was lack luster because of being deceived about the two coins being special to the set and then the unlimited mintage. If they did a 150k or even 200k limit it would have generated a lot more buzz. The final sales would have been similar but limiting it makes it seem special.
Not to mention the mint lost millions on canceled orders where people just bought them on the after market instead of waiting for their late October/early November ship date.
Edited by basebal21 04/05/2013 11:26 pm
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Valued Member
United States
307 Posts |
So what is the consensus? buy direct from mint or wait and see the aftermarket for the ASEs in NGC/PCGS plastic?
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Generally speaking if you want them graded its cheaper to buy them that, especially if you want the 70s instead of chasing that. If its anything like last year you can put in an order from the mint at the end so your in the last batch to ship and see how the after market goes before deciding on whether or not to cancel your order
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
Just for reference, silver was just about $4 more an ounce last year at this time
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Pillar of the Community
United States
899 Posts |
Actually closer to $5 Fox... but it is cheaper today and trending south instead of north as it did last summer.
Comparing US coin releases to world coins is not really a fair - apples to apples comparison. The US coin market has always sold volumes more than any other market. Most of the other mints limit the number of coins they release - to in fact support the high prices they ask for the product. Once they ramp up the volume the prices go down. (check out the Pandas and see if that isn't true).
The laser process may not be new technology - but it is new in the US coin production. I am guessing it is slower and far fewer coins can be made using the process - which is why it is gong to have limited use. (kind of odd they are using it on a Uncirculated coin - since they say it will be used for proof production though).
My preference for new coins is to buy them from the mint. If you are looking for MS70/PF70 as basebal suggests - buy those from a 2nd party - instead of chasing them down via ordering and submitting for evaluation.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
Interesting re: silver prices last year
April 3rd...$33.00
April 5th...$31.25
Nice drop over those 2 days
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2543 Posts |
We all know it is a no win situation for the mint. If this set was a high price with a limited mintage, there would be a huge out cry, " snob pricing " , " sold out in an hour ". Only big collectors, with connections and big resources would get the bulk of the mintage, leaving the rest us to try and come up with funds to pay the obnoxious secondary market prices, or go without. The mint is not servicing the " everyman " collector that has been such a big part of their recent successful issues. On the other side collectors with larger resourses, constantly decry the unlimited or timed mintage limits, as not instilling value in their collectable coins. I was very happy with the way the SF set turned out, enough to go around for everyone who wanted one , but enough people under valued it to make the RP the third lowest Eagle in the series. I see the ASE as an " everyman " series, a more expensive version of the State Quarter series. The mint walks a thin between making exclusively priced and minted sets , and allowing everyone to be able to continue their complete collection. But they can't win either way.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote: We all know it is a no win situation for the mint. If this set was a high price with a limited mintage, there would be a huge out cry, " snob pricing " , " sold out in an hour ". Only big collectors, with connections and big resources would get the bulk of the mintage, leaving the rest us to try and come up with funds to pay the obnoxious secondary market prices, or go without. Yet those same people who complain about it are the ones who couldnt care less about the set unless it had a super low mintage. Some people really just like to complain and the mint should just ignore them in my opinion. Just look at the sales for the 2013, the first day was something like 80-90k sold then it finished at what 240ish and 10% of the total orders got canceled. Its quite clear a very significant number of those sales were large resellers. The mint may be in a no win situation but they should pick the side that will protect their products value. The lower mintage that makes people chase the product and keep the interested will have people coming back for more.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2764 Posts |
I would like to add to basebal21's comment: The USMint MUST protect/consider the "everyman"/average collectors, those who committing to collecting the series. They are the mass and they will keep the Mint running, not the big resellers (those big resellers selling to whom?).
This approach of No-limit mintage, Mint-to-order for 1 month is probably the best solution the Mint came up with. Sure that the set will not appreciate right away. However, over long time, it will have a slower but steady appreciation in value.
Looking back at the 2006 set, it was in the $200 price range for a very long time (issue was $100, I believe), only when the excitement of the 2011 set start spreading (around 2010 when the news surfaced) that's when it jump to $300 range and stay there.
So, the 2012 set will not appreciate much for at least another few years. This would give a sustaining support for this series in the long run.
Edited by SA4H 04/06/2013 5:53 pm
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Replies: 162 / Views: 18,166 |