Is The Numismatic Community Growing Or Shrinking?

Hmm...

Assuming the numbers of collectible coins is somewhat fixed and the number of collectors is declining, then supply should outstrip demand and prices should be falling (people come and go, but coins tend to stick around). Prices, particularly for the higher end coins, do not appear to be falling (though I am not myself familiar with the market for "higher end" coins") and the rest seem at least stable. What is keeping the prices high? The number of collectors is not, in fact, declining? Or, the number of collectors *is* declining but each person is spending comparatively more money and amassing larger individual collections than in the past? A simple function of increased bullion prices or inflation in general? Or maybe the numbers of coins is shrinking? Except for inexpensive/junk silver going to the smelter, I imagine the number of coffee cans full of coins being found in attics each year is probably roughly equal to the number that accidentally get sent to the landfill (eventually though, virtually everything that can be found will be found).

Just for kicks, when I was a kid in 1980 the US population was 226,000,000. In 2010 it was roughly 309,000,000. If 5% of the population in 1980 were coin collectors and only 2.5% were in 2010, there would be a net loss of 3,575,000 collectors (effectively a 32% decline in real numbers in 30 years). If only 4% of the population were coin collectors now as opposed to 5%, there would be a net *gain* of 1,060,000 collectors (effectively a 9% gain in real numbers in 30 years). Now I'm just playing with ridiculously oversimplified numbers, but all other things being equal, it seems that *if* we've lost collectors in the US over the last 30 years, it can't be by much or else prices would have to come down.

Or not. Just some lunchtime musings...

cheers,
tbg

And just to inform, there are teenagers interested in this hobby.
I am a 17 years old :)
And I've attended 9 coin shows.
Also, I attend a coin gathering monthly where members of my local numismatic community all gather to trade coins and buy or sell.

Never been to a coin show.

For what it looks from here the US is the place to live if you are coin collector.

Yes I have went to many shops, including ones known by us locals only.
I have not found a single silver round, but I have found gold coins.
And no, they don't offer them at great prices.
One I have found wanted to sell me it for 25% over the gold price.
I am not sure if that is a good deal.

Whereas here (UK) we have .. maybe a dozen big shows a year? The main ones being the Midland, York and London (Coinex) off the top of my head.

The trouble is (IMHO) it's just a lot less exciting when the oldest coin you can find in change is a little over 30 years old. And none are silver, so there's not the thrill of picking through change you guys can get.

OK, there are the various Royal Mint issues. And bullion, but I don't know that's as popular here as in the US.

But real numismatic coin collecting, well, mostly that involves spending money. Sure, you can find odd coins in antique shops or at car boot fairs. But once you start to get serious then you need to source your coins somewhere else.

And whether it's ebay or a dealer's, that presents problems for kids who might be interested, unless they have sympathetic parents.

So however healthy or unhealthy the hobby is here, I suspect it's only people in their late teens and up that can take it seriously. And if you weren't hooked on the hobby as a kid .. well, I'm not sure what it takes to get people interested later ... certainly none of my friends or my daughter's friends are. Which to me doesn't bode particularly well for the hobby here in Britain.

I think it is growing. Maybe not as a percentage of the population but definitely by the amount of people. I live in a city of 1.2 million people. We have one big coin dealer (and I mean he has huge inventory), 2 medium sized ones, a smaller dealer who deals is expensive, rare coins and all sorts of world commemoratives and bullion and many other who deal in bullion and commemoratives. I myself started serious coin collecting only a year ago. Now my collection has grown to include a thousands of coins including Morgans, Peace dollars, a MS-60 1833 bust half and many other valuable coins. Funny thing is I only spent around $800. I got some amazing deals and had my uncles friend (He's 70 something) pass to me a few hundred dollars worth of coins. My point is, people are interested in making money. Now you may be a honest collector like me or you may be an investor but collecting numismatics and bullion provides a safe investment and guarantees (almost) that over time you will make profit. Where I see nostalgia, others see something else and ultimately humans will be drawn towards things that interest them (for example I was very happy when I got my first Morgan dollar a 1897-O). I think that the numismatic community is definitely growing and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Part of what westcoin gets to see in Texas is what happens when you have a good active numismatic community. The Texas Twin Cities (Fort Worth & Dallas) have a very active local coin club(s) that bring alot of children into the coin business which is why you see children at the Fort Worth & Dallas shows.

I agree.