How Many Obsolete Coins Are Left?

just_carl: I sort of knew someone would say that we'll never know and I agree with you that there are so many variables.

I was thinking that since the Cent Project is analyzing Lincoln cents, we might learn some very interesting information on what's out there in circulation for Lincoln cents by sampling a small %. In a similar way, if there was someway of analyzing a small % of the non-circulating obsolete coins, we might come up with a way to get a ballpark number on at least some denominations and coin types. It might require a coordinated effort from coin dealers to tell us about inventory, what is moving and what isn't moving, etc.

Another question I thought of: What % of obsolete coins are in private collectors' hands vs in the hands of coin dealers?

I agree with what SAP said. (Don't forget that a proportion of the coins "saved" by the collectors of one generation will end up being spent by the non-collectors of the next generation). I myself was handed a silver half dollar at the bank yesterday for face 50 cents. Most newer generation people have to busy of a lifestyle or no interest to bother even looking. I was that way once. Now I'm kicking myself for not looking. I probably missed quite a few. My dad always had a jar of change from his pockets being emptied everyday.

Absolutely, around 1980 when the Hunt Brothers tried to manipulate the market driving up the price of silver. $10-15 a piece for then common 20-30 year old silver coins equaled many sold for melt. Obviously, not just Franklins were affected and all 20th century silver had a significant amount of melting in that period. Franklins just happened to be the most common and largest silver coins still floating around. 1964 Kennedys were 90% too but I imagine that many people kept at least some of those for sentimental purposes whereas the public had no real attachment to Franklins.

I like just carls answer the best. No one will ever know. This is why I pay absolutely no attention to mintage figures.
I collect 1963 world coins and have about 20 types left to get. They are proving very difficult to come across even though some have very high mintage figures. Mintage figures don't mean that much. The price coins go for is the only true indicator of rarity. If something doesn't come up on ebay very often, when it does it gets a lot of interest, and so a high price, regardless of how many millions were minted.
I don't think it is possible to apply mathematical formulaes to the question either, as you cannot factor in all the possible reasons a coin type might be removed from circulation.

Just my thoughts :~0

I would have to guess far less. There are bound to be more collectors/hoarders/people who don't even know what the heck they have squirreled away than there are dealers with bins. I would think that the greater population lies with those folks than it does with dealers and I think it would be a stretch for even THAT group to have 10%. Just one guy's opinion, however....

I metal detect for coins alot during summer months. Here is a example of the years of Indian Head cents I have found last year. You will be able to see a trend toward newer one I think. This of course may be due to the relative age of population in my state.

Year and number of IH's found. I dont know if this is interesting to anybody or not but here it goes.


1882
1889
1890 x2
1894
1897
1898 x2
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1907

There are awful lot of coins in the ground.

Like what JustCarl said nobody can know this. Formulas are useless because the only given number is the mintage of the coins. You will not be able to account all the coins in dealers/hoarders especially private collectors who wouldn't even tell you what coins they have. Plus the fact that foreign collectors like myself also have those coins. So it is next to impossible and no formulas will ever work for it. The only Math you can use is mintage less number of collectors but still it will not be an accurate answer.

Most of the coins will be melted.

Let's assume silver goes to $50 an oz again. How many FDR dimes do you think are going to get melted? JFK 40% halves.... all the 1964 coinage ( I mean I think half of the junk silver rolls are 1964)

How about all those AG-G common date Walkers and Mercuries ? Barbers? We know how people dislike them.

That would make them worth 36.17 x face value at $50 an oz.

Sure MS/AU examples would go up too, but not enough to make it not worth it to trade up. If you could trade a few G4 commons for MS 63....wouldn't you do it? MS 63 common dates are what $15 for common 1940 Mercury dimes and $40 for Walkers?

I love the Walkers and Mercury dimes, but I mean there are enough common dates that melting the junker isn't going to hurt anything. The difference between looking at the AU/MS ones vs. junk ones.... Love the pretty ones!

If silver goes to $50 an oz, then I am going to help them melt a lot of coins...and my collection is going to get a wonderful upgrade in the process!

-SFWUSC