Coin Shows In The Time Of Coronavirus

Well, it's not possible at any of the shows I have ever attended. The aisles tend to be very narrow and you always end up jostling with others to see the coins. And then, of course, there's the matter of actually getting the dealer to hand you the coins or bills you want to look at...

No offense, but I don't think you fully understand how statistics or epidemics work. If you wanted to compare the number of currently infected people to the total number of people on the planet, then sure, the odds of any given individual getting the virus are quite low. But the number of people infected with the virus is steadily increasing, not remaining static. And if you happen to live in an areas where there is active community spread of the virus (as I do here in the Boston area), the odds of catching the virus go way up.

After a couple of people were infected with the virus here locally a week or so ago, the number of infected people started growing on a literally exponential basis from one day to the next, going from 2 people infected to 3 people to 8 people to 13 people to 28 people to 41 people to 92 (as of yesterday):



[Boston Globe 03/11/2020]

We'll have to wait and see whether that number keeps increasing. The latest news I've read from the CDC, however, is that the majority of Americans will likely end up being exposed to this virus over the next year or two (although hopefully we will have an effective vaccine against it before next year rolls around). I don't believe in needlessly causing panic, but at the same time I don't think it helps anybody to dismiss the risk entirely.

In other news, more and more events are being cancelled in my area. Boston's annual Saint Patrick's Day parade just got cancelled. Both Harvard and MIT are telling students not to return from Spring Break (and also kicking out students that are currently living on campus). My son had a local two-day robotics competition scheduled for this weekend that also just got cancelled. At this rate, I suspect that jbuck will be right and the coin show I planned to attend will also be cancelled.

Truth.


Next year you will just buy twice as many coins.

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

I've almost died 2 dozen times. From getting hit by a car, to a (short) coma, and many instances of anaphylactic shock. If I get offed by a stupid microbe I'm going to be very offended.

Comparisons to flu are misguided. It's not just how many people die - it's how many people are grievously ill. IT will overwhelm the healthcare system rapidly. In Italy at this particular time the ICUs are so over-crowded that, for example, if you're over 60, on chemotherapy or dialysis or have some other health concern, you are not eligible for a ventilator no matter how much you need one. They have been forced to reserve them for the people who need them and might survive.

Furthermore, mean time on ventilation is something like 12 days....it's a long-hard recovery if you get seriously ill from this virus.

I think a good modern pandemic to compare this to was the US Swine Flu Outbreak in 2009. I had it. It sucked.

Well, still no word on that coin show, but my work is now telling everybody who can work from home to do so, my wife's work sent out the same message, and my son's school just announced that it will be closed for the next two weeks.