Nickel Search Facts @ 200,000 Coins

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nickelsearcher Moderator United States 15392 Posts	Posted 08/02/2010 8:05 pm Just passed through 200,000 circulated USA nickels searched ..... for those friends short on math skills ...... that's $10,000 face value! During this endeavor I enjoyed making great friends with a few local bank tellers. As a true positive I have come to know and enjoy all of your advise and wisdom. First roll was cracked open on 2/25/2008 ...... so I have been at this for 2 years + 5 months ....... 883 days total give or take. What great fun the nickel search has been ...... I have gained a ton of knowledge from all of you and shared what I could as my knowledge increased. Anyways ....... still need two coins to complete my humble Whitman 9009 ..... a 38-S and the 43-D that DylansDad is sucking up like mad on the Left Coast. My latest update at 190,000 coins was judged as stale ..... and it became clear to me that my dry style of reporting statistics was not working ...... sooooo .... here is my attempt at a new look of reporting .... I've found 2550 keepers in the 200,000 coins searched ..... that's an average of 25.5 keepers per $100 box. My oldest find is a G-8 1899 Liberty V. Believe I showed a picture of it a ways back. My overall find rate statistics have been amazingly consistent if you look at 50,000 coin intervals ..... the low was 25.3 coins/box at 50K coins and the high was 25.6 coins/box at 150,000 coins. Circulation Obsolescence is a direct function of find rate .... and again this is consistent at an overall loss rate for Pre-1960 Jefferson at 81.34%. For fun ...... and this could be a good contest question ..... so I'll give you a preview on the answer ..... Estimated number of War Silver Jefferson in circulation today is 15,420,000 Estimated number of Buffalo in circulation today is 8,557,000 I commend to you the humble nickel ..... great variety and a true opportunity to complete a full circulation strike coin from bank rolls. Enjoy David Take a look at my other hobby ... http://www.jk-dk.art Report this Post to the Staff

guitarmonkee Valued Member United States 70 Posts	Posted 08/02/2010 8:35 pm Thats awesome! Did you find any buffalos? Report this Post to the Staff
AndrewC Valued Member United States 335 Posts	Posted 08/02/2010 9:00 pm Very cool, as usual. Would you mind posting the updated statistics, though? I enjoy them, even if nobody else does. Report this Post to the Staff
tumbleweedtrumpet Pillar of the Community United States 1418 Posts	Posted 08/02/2010 9:00 pm I enjoy these posts, too! Report this Post to the Staff
RollHunter Pillar of the Community United States 687 Posts	Posted 08/02/2010 9:13 pm Yeah, I kinda feel disappointed that we didn't get updated stats this time. Report this Post to the Staff
DylansDad Valued Member United States 476 Posts	Posted 08/02/2010 9:44 pm Congrats on the milestone! Keep it going my friend, although you may be the first to call Iowa the left coast, unless we're talking about the left coast of the Mississippi! Edited by DylansDad 08/02/2010 9:46 pm Report this Post to the Staff
nickelsearcher Moderator United States 15392 Posts	Posted 08/03/2010 8:39 pm Quote: although you may be the first to call Iowa the left coast Indeed .... my bad on that geography error ..... although Iowa is for sure 'left' enough of Maryland to have all the darn 43-D! Soooooo ...... a major clamor for the usual statistics ...... uhhhmmmm ..... minor clamor ....... OK ...... reality is two folks want them and will most likely never read this post again. So, for those truly interested ...... here are the typical statistics I normally report with my 10,000 coin updates ..... Overall Find Rate: Recall that for me a 'find' is any USA nickel minted prior to 1960 ...... so 1959 is the earliest year I keep. Overall find rate is 1.275% ..... that's 1 find every 78.3 raw coins on average ...... and an average of 25.5 finds per $100 box. I now have 2,550 of these coins ...... well on my way towards filling my 3rd Crown Royal whiskey sack ....... someday this is going to present some problems (the nickel storage that is ..... not the whiskey). Jefferson Find Rates by Decade: 1930's: 1 find every 1,754 raw 1940's (excluding war silver): 1 find every 213 raw War Silver: 1 find every 3,390 raw 1950's: 1 find every 143 raw Special Coin Find Rates: Recall that I consider a 'special coin' to be any of the following; Pre-Jefferson nickels, war silver and any of the nine (9) Jefferson with less than 10 million annual mintage. Liberty V: 1 every 100,000 raw (found 2) Buffalo: 1 every 6,250 raw (found 32) War Silver: 1 every 3,390 raw (found 59) Low-mintage Jefferson: 1 every 7,407 raw (found 27) Circulation Obsolescence: By now the interested parties have the concept and math figured out ...... but for any newbies here is a link to an older post that goes into the details ... https://goccf.com/t/58454 Overall 1938-1959 Jefferson Obsolescence is 81.34% Hint .....Key Fact for the Contest coming up. 1930's Obsolescence is 81.35% Pre-War 1940's Obsolescence is 81.89% War Silver Obsolescence is 98.23% Post-War 1940's Obsolescence is 78.83% Early 1950's Obsolescence is 74.92% Late 1950's Obsolescence is 67.50% I can also report that Buffalo nickel Obsolescence is 99.29%. Top-10 Jefferson's: Original mintage figures do not account for obsolescence ..... so recognizing the 'hoarding' issues I discussed in my original post on the topic ..... here are the current Top-10 toughest Jefferson to pull from circulation today ...... along with their predicted find rates in raw coins per find ..... 1943-D @ 192,755 coins ..... arrrgh DylansDad 1944-S @ 136,535 coins 1944-D @ 91,305 coins 1942-S @ 89,640 coins 1939-D @ 80,050 coins 1945-D @ 79,278 coins 1950-D @ 74,418 coins 1938-S @ 68,335 coins 1942-P Silver @ 50,935 coins 1945-S @ 50,071 coins Anyways ...... there are the facts amigos. To spur some interest in the topic of searching Jefferson nickels I am going to host a contest where the prize is a stunning 1944-D PCGS MS66 War Nickel ....... so check out the contest forum ...... coming soon .... regular readers of these updates will have a leg up on how to answer the questions. Hope someone reads this ...... Enjoy David Take a look at my other hobby ... http://www.jk-dk.art Edited by nickelsearcher 08/03/2010 9:02 pm Report this Post to the Staff
mrak Valued Member United States 99 Posts	Posted 08/03/2010 11:14 pm nickelsearcher, thanks for all the hard work, love these posts. I find it really interesting comparing the top 10 to my own find rates. I'm sitting at 122K searched so far. What I see most notable, probably not surprising, is some clear geographic bias with the s-mint coins (I am in the SF Bay Area). Here are my totals through 122K: 1944S - 3 1942S - 2 1938S - 3 1945S - 10 1939S - 3 Now the D's are giving me trouble. Still need 38,39,43,45, and 50. Report this Post to the Staff
AndrewC Valued Member United States 335 Posts	Posted 08/04/2010 08:51 am Have you kept track of the odds and ends you've found (foreign stuff, tokens, etc.)? Report this Post to the Staff
TNG Bedrock of the Community United States 10284 Posts	Posted 08/04/2010 09:49 am Thanks for the updates and interesting data. Although, I don't always have a comment, I think I read almost all your posts on the searches and finds when it comes to Jefferson's. Finding the 1950 D and 1939 D nickels were sort of lucky for you and I think maybe you found them early. As you continue on, I think that your "toughest" list will realign. These will rise to the top and you will come across more 1943 D as you head closer to 1,000,000 nickels. I think it would be cool if you and CND would combine your stats when your projects are finished. We would have a better average with the LAW of LARGE NUMBERS. I find it hard to believe that out there in bank wrapped rolls in tellers drawers, cash registers and pockets walking around sit an estimated 15,420,000 War Silver Jefferson and an estimated 8,557,000 Buffalo nickels. I just wonder how you arrive at that and I think that sounds extremely high. I might be wrong and you might be right, but I would think it would have to be at least, only 1/10 th those figures. I just find that either amazing, or hard to believe. I'd also mention it has been many years since I got a Buffalo nickel with or without a date in change. Report this Post to the Staff
RPT Pillar of the Community United States 920 Posts	Posted 08/04/2010 11:06 am Thanks for the update David. I also enjoy the detailed stats. Report this Post to the Staff
Waredu Valued Member United States 397 Posts	Posted 08/04/2010 12:15 pm I also enjoy the stats updates. I've only gone through a few boxes myself - but you inspired me to keep track of what I find as well on my blog. What I find amazing is that I'm tracking about 1.15% of all nickels in rolls are pre-1959 (I don't count 1959, so my numbers are slightly less than yours) but only 0.28% of all cents in rolls are pre-1959 (wheat pennies). I appreciate your updates - because it gives me something to shoot for. Report this Post to the Staff
AGCoinHunter Pillar of the Community United States 625 Posts	Posted 08/04/2010 1:28 pm Thanks nickelsearcher, I love these posts. Keep at it! Report this Post to the Staff
Yinzi50 Pillar of the Community United States 716 Posts	Posted 08/04/2010 11:16 pm Thanks for the update. Keep it going! I have passed my 100 boxes recently. My War Nickel percent is higher (90 total); 3 V-Nickel; 3x1950D; 6x43-D; 1x38D; 1x38S; 2x39D; 3x39S I haven't counted my Buffalo yet. Edited by Yinzi50 08/04/2010 11:18 pm Report this Post to the Staff
novillero Valued Member United States 290 Posts	Posted 08/05/2010 08:52 am From this field work, what coins do you think are under and over valued? Report this Post to the Staff
nickelsearcher Moderator United States 15392 Posts	Posted 08/05/2010 9:16 pm Nickel Searching Facts Contest is now open! ...... go check it out ..... great prize (IMHO) as well .... https://goccf.com/t/69645 Wow ..... great replies to the thread and I appreciate all the interest. It does take some time to generate the updates and it's nice to know there is some interest. Anyways ..... a few replies then off to bed for work tomorrow ... Quote: I think it would be cool if you and CND would combine your stats when your projects are finished. We would have a better average with the LAW of LARGE NUMBERS. Agreed ...... although we are both very sensitive to not interfere with the 'publication rights' of each others research. I know CND is planning an article for a magazine once he reaches 1 million coins ..... and in no way do I want to preempt his data. Perhaps at the end ..... he might consider adding his data to my algorithm for the benefit of the CCF folks. Quote: From this field work, what coins do you think are under and over valued? LOL ..... there is practically NO VALUE to these coins ..... circulated Jefferson are a dime a dozen (OK ..... 60 cents) ..... and this is not a part of the hobby you should take up if financial gain is important. I do it for a passion of the search and to achieve my personal goal ...... nothing more than that. Quote: I find it hard to believe that out there in bank wrapped rolls in tellers drawers, cash registers and pockets walking around sit an estimated 15,420,000 War Silver Jefferson and an estimated 8,557,000 Buffalo nickels. I just wonder how you arrive at that and I think that sounds extremely high. Fair question ....... so let's discuss the War Silver number as an example ........ helpful hint ....... this discussion might be very useful in answering one of the Contest Questions. Sooooooo .... by my data the circulation obsolescence rate for War Silver Jefferson is 98.23%. You can believe that number or not ...... but it has held steady for over 50,000 coins and I believe it is a reasonable proxy for the real but unknown percentage. Go back and re-read my original post on 'obsolescence' (referenced above) for more information on the theory and math behind the number. Anyways ..... if you can put some faith into that number ..... the rest is easy. Since 98.23% of the original total mintage of War Silver has disappeared from circulation (the definition of circulation obsolescence) ...... then 'only' 1.77% remain in circulation. The total mintage of Jefferson War Silver is a staggering 870 million coins ...... they account for nearly 25% of the total 1938-1959 Jefferson circulation strike mintage! Soooo ..... do the math ...... 1.77% of 870 million coins remain in circulation ...... and that's 15,400,000 coins. You can do the same for Buffalo ... and .... Hint Again .... you can do the same for 1938-1959 Jefferson circulation strike coins. Hope some of you try the contest ...... Enjoy you nickel hunts. David Take a look at my other hobby ... http://www.jk-dk.art Report this Post to the Staff
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