Apmex Buying Over Spot "Incredible Demand"

I like watching the supply of Eagles go down on APMEX..earlier today there were 5061,now theyre around 3300

The biggest problem investors (and don't kid yourself, if you buy multiples of bullion coins, you're investing, not collecting) have is no exit strategy. They watched silver climb to $50 in 1980, and held it down to $3.

A lady in our coin club had a bunch of 64 Canadian PL sets. They cost $4, and at one point dealers were selling them for $1.75 to folks who made $.16 taking them apart for face. She always said if they got back up to what she paid, she'd sell them. They did, and then she decided she'd like to make "a little profit for holding them so long."

We offered market price during the 1980 run up, but she saw ag going up, and held out for the peak.

I'll bet her son still has them.

If one is stacking for the future, and may not sell for ten to twenty, maybe even thirty years, then an exit strat is not of the fore most of concern to me anyway, esp with many ways to move product these days, options the lady with those silver sets did not have, via the Internet for one....

For example, my dad (big bass fishermen) used to use ebay, but he joined a lure club, and all the big time lure collectors buy and sell there. After being member long enough, like here you can sell there with no fees, only shipping per say. They spend 1000's and 10s of 1000's on antique vintage fishing lures, Heddon, Shakespeare and such. He built an amazing collection, some of the most impossible to find box and lure combo's 100 plus years old close to mint often. He would not sell for years, created photo album and 1600 plus members had saved it, and bugged him to sell this or that for years. He just decided to sell out not long ago, and all the lures were gone in a few days, and no telling how much that weasel pocketed on that transaction, and he still has his elite stuff, and of course will buy more, lol. Sorry for the rant, I know this is not bullion, but the product is not the point, the many ways to move a product is, and this is something that doe snot scare me, sometimes patience is required to sell an item or items, even though that can get costly as well, depending on where you sell....

The difference between tackle and silver bullion is your dad would have a heckuva time replacing what he sold, because it's not sitting out there in a warehouse.

If you sell 100 ASE boxes at $50 an ounce and silver drops to $20, you won't have a bit of trouble buying 100 to replace them. In fact, it's sometimes easier when prices are lower, because you have less competition.

Holding for the long term is fine, but intelligent buying and selling helps there, too.

If you bought 1000 ounces of silver in 1965, your $1300 investment grew to $50k in 1980, dropped to $3000 or so during the Clinton years, and today is worth $50k again. If you sold in 1980 and bought back in at $5, you'd now have 10,000 ounces worth a half million. That's what I mean about an exit strategy--having a logical point where you figure there's no reason for the current price to get much higher, selling, then buying back in later.

Just my humble opinion,

I feel there is a bubble in all this excitement in the metals
market. And I believe the rapid rise in prices reflect
the bubble.
The Bubble being the U.S. Dollar and it already popped

No doubt, that easy access to items that were not so easily acquired before the net, has watered down the market in some areas, for lack of a better word....

In the end, I think it just separates the ultra rare items from the items that are just scarce perhaps, and not that hard to find with a little patience. Just because you can't find one example of any given item on ebay at one moment in time, does not mean there is not 50 thousand out there hoarded away, and zero are currently not for sale at the time for what ever reason....

Like for example, I have been trying to get one of those raised civil war coins that are made in 5 oz and 4.5 oz. for the right price. I have a raised one that is 1.8 oz, and it has Jackson and Lee on it as it is an anniversary coin for Lexington Virginia from 1778 to 1978. Such a neat piece, pictures does it no justice, and it is noticeably thicker and heavier than a 1 oz round, and they are not ultra rare, but not so easy to find at the drop of a hat either. Still, there are probably 1000's like it out there....

APMEX is not paying an unusually high premium because they figure silver will go up. They need coins to sell, nothing more, nothing less.

If the power is out, the fact that you can have all the power you want a month from now is of no value. This is called the time utility component of the value of the product.

If the local water is contaminated, a reservoir of water 1000 miles away is of no value. This is called the place utility component of the value of the product.

Right now, there is a time utility problem. APMEX can buy all the ASE it wants at $2 over, but delivery next month is of no use if they have customers who want physicals today.

If you would call APMEX and offer to charge $100,000 to lend them 100,000 ASE immediate delivery for replacement in two months, you'd have a wire the instant they received them. It would be worth that buck a coin to have inventory for immediate shipment. I've seen that kind of deal around Christmas, when sellers need inventory for gift buyers.

If APMEX could accurately foretell the future, they would not be in the coin selling business but in the futures markets, where they could make Billion$.

APMEX makes money via rapid inventory turn-over, not by buying low and selling high.

Just my 2 pfennigs worth.