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Posted 12/21/2017 10:40 am
The most important reason why there will always be some level of uncertainty regarding rarity is the Pittman Act, under which half of all Morgans ever minted were melted - 270 million coins. 260 million of them were sent to Great Britain (look it up, it's a fascinating read) and the final 10 million were recycled into Minor coinage. What we don't know is which ones were melted.
There are certain indications allowing us a few conclusions. The GSA sales showed that a few Carson City years escaped the melt, as a large percentage of the original mintage was released in the sales. Grading populations over time indicate others, like the earlier San Francisco mintages, seem to have survived in large numbers. But for the rest, we can only make the vaguest of estimates based on numbers submitted for grading, and that's iffy because they'll be skewed towards the higher-graded examples in most cases, and we aren't really sure if a bazillion exist in circulated grades because people aren't submitting them.
And none of that has any bearing on the relative rarity of individual die pairs/VAMs. It's reasonable to assume that many die pairs pretty much disappeared completely in the Pittman Act melt, and that a "complete" listing of Morgan die pairs will never be possible. The only thing we have is time and research leading to comparative rarities. Even though this effort has been ongoing for over half a century, there's no doubt that many more individual die pairs remain to be identified, and there will be upsets in the future regarding the rarity of certain varieties.
So the only "pronouncements" available are those we know today. That might change tomorrow.
There are certain indications allowing us a few conclusions. The GSA sales showed that a few Carson City years escaped the melt, as a large percentage of the original mintage was released in the sales. Grading populations over time indicate others, like the earlier San Francisco mintages, seem to have survived in large numbers. But for the rest, we can only make the vaguest of estimates based on numbers submitted for grading, and that's iffy because they'll be skewed towards the higher-graded examples in most cases, and we aren't really sure if a bazillion exist in circulated grades because people aren't submitting them.
And none of that has any bearing on the relative rarity of individual die pairs/VAMs. It's reasonable to assume that many die pairs pretty much disappeared completely in the Pittman Act melt, and that a "complete" listing of Morgan die pairs will never be possible. The only thing we have is time and research leading to comparative rarities. Even though this effort has been ongoing for over half a century, there's no doubt that many more individual die pairs remain to be identified, and there will be upsets in the future regarding the rarity of certain varieties.
So the only "pronouncements" available are those we know today. That might change tomorrow.
