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Biggfredd Still Contributing From Beyond...

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Forum Dad
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 Posted 09/24/2012  12:09 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add bobby131313 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
One of our members questioned Fred via email about using the word slobbed in reference to slabbed coins. This member shared the response with us at the World's Fair of Money. The Staff has come to the conclusion that we would be doing the members here a disservice if we didn't share...


Quote:

Hi, -

I contributed to the initial $50,000 that the ANA raised to form ANACS, before I even became an ANA-LM, and I have an ungraded svdb and its certification and pix from ANACS. Why ungraded? That was how they came.

It wasn't until PCGS came up with their idea that they scrood the pooch. Their whole concept was based on the idea that if coins could be put in tamper-proof holders and guaranteed to be genuine and a standard grade, then anyone could trade coins sight unseen, just like stocks, where no one cares what the stock certificate looks like. They spent tons of money promoting this exact concept.

As anyone who knows anything about grading can tell you, not all ms63 are created equal, but here we have a program that claims they are, which means it's doomed to failure from the start. So why did it succeed at all?

By promoting a no-peek price market, they could get the backing of big dealers and investment brokers. How many 1881s dollars does a Morgan collector need? A grand total of one. How many collectors are putting together a date set of ms Morgans? 100? 1000? 10,000? (In your dreams)

By comparison, you can show an investor with $100,000 that $1000 invested in coins in 1970 would be worth $181,000 in 5/89. Common date Morgans in ms65 were $500, so he can buy 200. There are over 55 bags of ms65 81s slobbed. Even under the ridiculous assumption of 10,000 date collectors wanting a minimum ms65 and having the $500 to buy one, there's still 45,000 coins more than needed by the market.

However, if you can convince just 225 investors to buy 200 each (or a few multi-million dollar investment groups to buy 2000 each), you can get rid of all of these common coins that every dealer has a bunch of, making them (and PCGS) wealthy.

In 5/89, the bubble burst. Silvertowne lost $3 million in bid value of slobbed inventory in one weekend. Dealers couldn't understand what hit them, but it's obvious--that's how investors react. Someone put 2+2 together and realized that no matter whose hands they were in, 55,000 coins for 10,000 collectors = common.

Did slobbing solve any problems? Not really, they just changed the faces and created new problems.

There used to be fake coins, now there are fake coins in fake slabs, AND since even a seven year old girl understands coins should be slabbed, people not only have no incentive to learn how to detect counterfoots or grade, but they blindly believe whatever the piece of plastic says. AND you now have pariah basement TPG, slobbing fakes and overgrading both.

I saw two posts from a Clewless Gnubee™ today, wanting to know which CWT were rare, and a list of rare coins to look for. Does that sound like a collector, or like someone who's gonna buy the first overgraded piece of crap with a low price?

How about the 95% of coins that aren't textbook examples of a grade? First, they got bodybagged, creating a dual market: slobbed and worthless. Then when they ran out of "textbook" coins, they changed to "market" grading, which isn't grading at all, but pricing. So a pretty au58 is now ms63, which means the no-peek price for ms63 has to drop to what an au58 us worth, because you have to take anything with a ms63 label.

Meanwhile, the big three have slobbed 50 million coins, and taken at least a half billion dollars for their services. That's a half billion dollars that could have been spent on coins instead of plastic.

If I was a new person to CCF this would make me double think. Good, because that's exactly what you should do. Measure twice, cut once. Study the book before buying the coin. Investigate before you invest.

BTW, coins are only down 62% from 5/89, having recovered 44.5% from the 12/94 low. At that growth rate, they should be reaching a new peak around 12/2046.

I'll be happy to listen to counterarguments, but slobbing has ruined the hobby, on many levels.

Fred

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 Posted 09/24/2012  1:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jeffrose to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Anotherr Pearll of Wisdomm from BiggFredd

I look forward to members opinions on this subject. I also believe it would get more attention in the Main Coin Forum.
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 Posted 09/24/2012  1:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bryan1315 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Very informative and to the point, I don't see how there could be any thing negative said about the post. It definitely shows no matter how quirky he was at times he also had a wealth of knowledge to share and didn't mind doing so.

I think the reason it was put here is because it is discussing TPG's in his response and in the GD area only the ones that have asked to be involved in those discussions will see it, here the whole forum has access to it
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 Posted 09/24/2012  1:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add oih82w8 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I took BiggFredd's comments on "slobbed" as non-offensive and thought (originally) that he was referring to the effect that coins usually placed in these holders brought.
Edited by oih82w8
09/24/2012 1:53 pm
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 Posted 09/24/2012  1:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add macmercury to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I like BiggFredd direct point in bring the truth to the fact statement.

The Mercury Dimes Specialist!
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 Posted 09/24/2012  2:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ArrowsAndRays to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Great post! Thanks for sharing this gem!
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 Posted 09/24/2012  2:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add harrison2 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Bobby, thank you for sharing Bigg Fredd's insights...I never knew about the bubble and crash, but it makes sense and very relevant to how things are going today.

Again, thank you.
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 Posted 09/24/2012  5:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add bpoc1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A wealth of information and opinion from BiggFredd's , "Slobbed Coins." Thanks for the post and respect.
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 Posted 09/24/2012  5:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SteveCaruso to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Preach it Fredd.

*Sigh*... I miss him. Didn't even know him well. 'Still miss him.
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 Posted 09/24/2012  8:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Don't ya just love that cynicism? It is always good for true numismatists to think with circumspection before they invest.

I am always sceptical of marketeers.
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 Posted 09/24/2012  9:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add nickelsearcher to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Enjoyed the read and respect the opinion.

We all have our own views on slabbed coins ... appreciate the opportunity Bobby to read the words from Fred.

Thanks for sharing it with us.

David
Take a look at my other hobby ... http://www.finewoodcrafter.com
Too many hobbies .... too much work .... not enough time.
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 Posted 10/12/2012  6:31 pm  Show Profile   Check westcoin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add westcoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks for the posting Bobby! That is some good writting Fred did on this subject, captures a lot, billions spent on plastic not coins, ouch.
"Buy the Book Before You Buy the Coin" - Aaron R. Feldman - "And read it" - Me 2013!
ANA Life Member #3288 in good standing since 1982, EAC Member #6202, NBS Member, 2˘ variety collector.

See my want page: http://goccf.com/t/140440
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 Posted 10/12/2012  8:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks for the post Bobby. Some of us who were around when the TPG concept was started saw all of this coming.
The slabbed Half dollar No FG farce: Download No-FG half vs. Grading Company Claims report here:
https://tinyurl.com/yalrstjz or higher resolution version: https://tinyurl.com/y7rksxu8

- How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
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 Posted 10/12/2012  8:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Fredd: I have always reacted negatively to marketeering, be it in coins or anything else.
Marketeering that was in part responsible for the GFC.

For us all: Just remember, if you are a target for marketeering, and you take the bait, sooner or later, you will be a victim. The problem is be able to differentiate between what is honest promotion and what is marketeering.
Perhaps good warning for ALL investors, not just for PM and numismatics investors.

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 Posted 10/12/2012  9:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mdpmedia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
With all due respect Fredd was and will continue to be sardonicism at its best always divulging the veiled truth.
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