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Proof Silver Kennedy's May Have A Future?

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 Posted 11/12/2017  07:26 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
Explain this comparison please. Many say that there are way too many modern proof silver Kennedy's made for them to ever gain much value. But when you look at the mintage of the 1964 proof, at 3.9 million, and you see that coin is selling today for $10-15 in raw condition, slabbed even more. And then you look at the mintage numbers since 2008, which have been under 700 thousand every year, how can you not think that these coins have room to rise in price, possibly substantially, and maintain their values over the years?
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 Posted 11/12/2017  09:48 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well, they don't circulate, so there is no significant attrition to the population. That makes the "demand" side of the equation problematic. They'll never be hard to find....

I remain as bullish on high-grade Kennedys from circulating years as any other Modern circulating issue, but that's about the only facet which satisfies the demand side.
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 Posted 11/12/2017  10:15 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well they'll never be hard to find, unless collectors start hoarding the ones that are very affordable right now. Kennedy's have always been extremely popular, that's why the government still makes them every year. And there are way more coin collectors in general today than in 1964.
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 Posted 11/12/2017  12:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CelticKnot to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
with SsuperDdave and jmgi.

Is then, perhaps, a good time to start putting together a 70 set of Ag Kennedys? Or is the argument that the market will stay put for some time due to availability of the coins and one can take one's time?
Edited by CelticKnot
11/12/2017 12:23 pm
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 Posted 11/12/2017  1:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
CelticKnot, I don't see any real hurry to accumulate the silver proofs, although it does look like certain ones such as the 2012 has already taken off, even if it is somewhat overpriced in my opinion compared to other low mintage dates. Most likely it will come down to earth at some point.

I remember back in 2009 I think, I was hoarding the 2008 silver proof because at the time it was the lowest silver proof mintage (620,00) in the Kennedy series outside of the 1998 matte finish. As we all know now, even lower mintages were still to come, so hoarding all those 2008's didn't produce the outcome I was hoping for. So now, here we have silver proof mintages under 400,000 with the possibility of even lower in the years to come. Until they stop making the Kennedy half, I think prices will just stay pretty much where they are with only slight increases for the very lowest mintages. Much higher bullion prices would add more value too, but I'm not holding my breath for that.
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 Posted 11/12/2017  2:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There are just too many other coins I'd rather have.
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 Posted 11/12/2017  2:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
moxking, such as?
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 Posted 11/12/2017  3:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Where does he start?
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 Posted 11/12/2017  3:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm not a big modern coin collector, mainly the older classic stuff, so to those who do specialize in the modern coins, lets just say since 1964, I'm curious what is better to buy from a price appreciation potential, if you don't like some of the silver proof Kennedy's, assuming you don't spend more than about $30/coin. Just give a few examples for me to chew on.
Edited by jmgi
11/12/2017 3:38 pm
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 Posted 11/12/2017  4:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Debrajc to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't know if they are going anywhere or not buy that hasn't stopped me from putting a complete set together and keeping it current.
I tend to collect what I like and not worry about what it may or may not sell for in the future.
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 Posted 11/12/2017  4:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I actually don't get tired of the Kennedy half, even after 53 years. I still like the design, and I'm afraid that if they ever replace it, it may end up like some of the State Quarter designs, not very attractive, and we'll be stuck looking at that for who knows how many years. I also like that its a large coin still available in 90% silver, the cameo proofs are really nice in my opinion. As for me, I do collect what I like also, but money for collecting doesn't come easy for me, so I hope to at least break even in the end, whether I sell them, or my wife and kids do.
Edited by jmgi
11/12/2017 4:58 pm
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 Posted 11/12/2017  5:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add TheForce to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
with you Debrajc. I collect what I like. I don't really concern myself with future value. Are Canadian coins super popular in the states? Probably not but I'm totally into them. The US Mint has left a sour taste in my mouth.
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 Posted 11/13/2017  07:05 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Someone earlier suggested that the modern silver proof Kennedy's will never be hard to find, thus no real demand. True, they may never be hard to find, just like the 1916-D Mercury dime will never be hard to find. Even though the 16-D had a very low mintage, it was saved being a first year issue of a new design, even if it was pulled from circulation. I'm sure there was a time early on, when the 16-D could be had for very little money, just like some of the lowest mintage proof silver Kennedy's of today.
Edited by jmgi
11/13/2017 07:14 am
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 Posted 11/14/2017  10:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BadDog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Not all Kennedy half collectors collect the Ag proofs. For them, the clad proof is sufficient to have an example from each mint, at a much cheaper cost. This holds down the demand somewhat.

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 Posted 11/15/2017  5:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A great many of the proof 1964 kennedy's were lost in the great silver melt of 79/80 and then again about 10 years ago when silver once again rose above $0 an oz. So the 3.9 million mintage figure is meaningless. The number of survivers is considerably smaller. How small is anyone's' guess. The later silver proofs survival rates are probably much higher withthe number of pieces available being much closer to the original mintages.

Then you have the demand side of the equation. How many collectors are there of Kennedy half dollars? And how many of those want the silver proofs? This figure is unknowable with any great precision, but I believe that the number of serious coin collectors (those willing to pay a significant sum for coins they need) is probably on the order of a million in the US today and not all of those collect Kennedys. So the number of Kennedy collectors is probably well less than a million. As such the current mintages of around 400,000 is probably enough to come close to satisfying the demand. The only way to increase values then would come from either a decrease in the available supply, or an increase in the number of collectors. I don't see much of a change occurring in either in the near future.

In reviewing this I find I have run off in a rant. If you want to stop reading at this point that's fine.


You tried to make a comparison to the 16 D dime. Yes it had a low mintage, and yes it MAY have been saved at a higher rate than normal as the first year of issue. But date and mint collecting was not yet popular at the time and most collectors were not aware of the low mintage until years later. So it might have a survival rate of 10 to 15% call it 26 to 40 thousand coins. (The modern proof silver Kennedys have a survival rate of nearly 100%.) And when most collectors start collecting they collect the lower denominations. SO there were at one time, and may still be, more collectors of Mercury dimes than there are of Kennedy halves. Once collecting by date and mint became popular and the rarity of the 16 D dime was known the price rose rapidly. You also have to consider if you look back at prices back then as compared to now that the purchasing power of money was much greater back then. What looking back we see as a low price, was to the people of the time a high price and significant amount of money.

Eventually though it would not surprise me to see the price of the 16 D dime falter or even decline. As time passes collectors move on to more recent series and older more expensive series fall into decline. In the early 20th century the Seated coins were more widely collected and the Barbers were somewhat ignored. In my early years of collecting the Barbers were widely collected, and the Mercurys dimes. Walkers were somewhat collected, Franklins were ignored for the most part. Today Seateds are "Specialist" field, the Barbers are not as widely collected. Mercurys and Walkers are popular,later series not so much.

We have something of a disconnect now though as far as people collecting the older series. It used to be, I believe, that collectors tended to collect the series just before the ones that were in current series being minted while they were growing up. As the say familiarity breeds contempt, and collectors want the previous series that could still be found sometimes in circulation and not he current production. But today there are very few people still alive that remember new coins being produced of a series not currently in circulation. To remember seeing a new current year Indian Head cent you would have to be close to 118 years old. A Buffalo nickel Nearly 90. A Mercury dime about 85.The youngsters would be those that remember Franklins or Eisenhowers, about 65 and 50 respectively. For the most part we don't really remember seeing anything in circulation than what is currently circulating. We get excited over seeing a Wheat cent. Those that can remember being able to search their change and finding key dates or obsolete coins are in their 60's or 70's I think this has created a losing of interest in collecting. (remember familiarity breeds contempt)

Remember the excitement when the State Quarters were first introduced (or for those older the Bicentennial coins)? The was excitement, not just among collectors but in the populace at large. This was the first real change that most of the people had seen in their entire lifetime. It caught everyone's interest. But then it went to the other extreme. Five new designs every year for ten years and it just became Ho Hum, another new design. This has been compounded by the ATB Quarters. If anything it is probably now driving more collectors off than creating.

What I would really like to see is a complete redesign of the coins with a staggered five year introduction. You get a one new design introduced every five years On the Cent this year, the five cent five after that and so on. After thirty year it comes back to the cent again. No design on a coin last longer than 30 year, and there is a new design of something to look for every five. It would keep thing fresher, no more multi-generational runs, and there would be the opportunity to seek out obsolete designs in your change again without inundating the coins with designs.
Gary Schmidt
Edited by Conder101
11/15/2017 6:28 pm
Valued Member
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160 Posts
 Posted 11/15/2017  8:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmgi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
That was quite a rant, Conder101, and I have to say I agree with you on everything. After my OP, I did have an after thought that the 1964 Kennedy probably lost many coins to the melting pot, including proofs, which I failed take into consideration when comparing mintages between it and the latest silver proof Kennedy's. I realized that the 3.9 million mintage had been reduced somewhat over the years, but you are probably correct that the survivor's are likely much, much lower in number than I thought.

The one thing I have noticed in my years collecting, is that most coin types move in and out of favor, with prices following those moves. Seems most coins have their day eventually. Will a 400,000 mintage proof silver Kennedy be one of them....who knows.



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