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Gold and Silver Outlook for the rest of 2018

 
 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
567 Posts
 Posted 10/03/2018  10:28 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
"History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes", Mark Twain.

What had happened in the past few years, Gold and Silver were mostly in downtrends during second half; and 2018 hasn't seemed to be any exception. First half of the year we saw gold and silver hovering above $1300 and $17; and now struggling around $1200 and $14.80.

What are Banksters doing in the futures market? CFTC commitment of traders report is weekly published here: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm The Swap Dealer category is usually the Market Maker, aka Banksters. They are both net LONG on Gold and Silver futures contracts, from the most recent report.

Actually we have witnessed a rebound in the past few days for Gold and Silver. Have Banksters been reducing their long position while jacking up spot price? We will know by Friday, and every following Fridays; because that's when CFTC releases weekly futures report where we can see their position changes.

Will 2018 be any different for Gold/Silver from last few years? I don't think so although many people kept saying this year would be different. My prediction is that Gold will test $1100, and Silver for $13; sometime after Thanskgiving. After all, for the past 6 years the best time to buy bullion and coins, was between Thanksgiving and New Years Day.

My strategy would be to take advantage of this rebound, build a short position on Gold or Silver (GLD, SLV are the trading ETFs); and when price targets get hit after Thanksgiving; cover the short position and use the profit to buy bullion and coins. Been there, done that.

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United States
7480 Posts
 Posted 10/03/2018  12:49 pm  Show Profile   Check TNG's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add TNG to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The 1200.00 dollar gold seems to be acting like an electric fence. It gets close, sometimes even gets a good zap going under but keeps bouncing back at slightly above that for the past month or so.

I think it is just plain stubborn that it is staying that high. Those who are holding refuse to give it up for anything lower at this time.

I am not an authority on precious medals. But I do think there is always a connection with interest rates and the stock markets.
With interest rates hinting for a small long overdue spike, gold should rise a little and on the other hand, with the stock market ever climbing and breaking records, I think that gold should have fallen more than it has.
So as for gold, I think it is probably going to be stagnant at the 1200 level for the rest of this year. If it gets to dropping steadily under 1200 daily, the new 1200 may be 1100.

Silver was somewhat moving in the same direction as gold proportionately there for the past half year but is staying away from that fence.
I just think silver is plain cheap. Think about it, a precious metal, that costs practically nothing when compared with the cost of other goods today.

In my opinion silver is the way to go long term. There's little to lose if it goes down and a lot to gain if it goes up.
1 oz of 999 gold today is equal to about 82 oz of silver at todays rate as I type.

My thoughts on platinum and palladium are that they are completely out of whack and reversed, the platinum should be closer to gold or even higher.
Palladium may have spiked ( just like rhodium has ) because of the new collector coins being made and the outrageous prices that are being asked.

Now I hope my math is correct and that my thinking makes some sense. I am not taking the pure gold premium into consideration here. (1200 + premium for .999) Maybe 5% or 10%.

I like gold and I like silver. It is probably not the time to sell and it might be good to have some of each.
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Edited by TNG
10/03/2018 1:10 pm
Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
1257 Posts
 Posted 10/03/2018  2:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add peter1234 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Pillar of the Community
United States
3494 Posts
 Posted 10/06/2018  08:56 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It's a well known fact that the market is rigged, with banks admitting to manipulation, paying small fines as they go.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...reluctantly

Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
Valued Member
United States
439 Posts
 Posted 10/09/2018  3:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add everything to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Good points all, metals have finally, it seems, settled out to some extent, and have been in a pretty tight range for a couple of years now. It's going to stay like this for .. most likely years, as will ZIRP policies. Only if central banks stopped stacking the thousands of tons of demand they are creating, then I feel that gold would settle below $1000. America has world reserve currency, we are all mostly near clueless to how bad inflation can get, other countries they know, and they buy/hoard gold accordingly.

I think some of us feel that we will one day be shaking our heads looking back at the ZIRP days, it's a pretty big financial setup.

As do the corporations, referring to a SEC fine to a certain electric car manufacturer quite recently, or i.e. a bank with the initials WF. Then you have complete disasters like Monsanto..

It's a well known fact that the market is rigged, with banks admitting to manipulation, paying small fines as they go.
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United States
3110 Posts
 Posted 10/09/2018  6:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BStrauss3 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It will go up. Or maybe down. Maybe stay about the same. Pretty sure it will be one of those.
-----Burton
45 year / Life ANA member (joined 12/1/1973)
Owned by four cats and a wife of 35 years (joined 1983)
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United States
3811 Posts
 Posted 10/09/2018  7:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add macmercury to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Looking at the Kitco chart, every other year I see prices going down for gold, so this year the trend would be down, unless something take its place. Market crash? Next year goes up...Its been like that for the past 5 years!

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Valued Member
Australia
436 Posts
 Posted 10/11/2018  05:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add kg5 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The price of silver falls and so does the AU$. It has been like this for years now.The story for 2018.

If I was working with US$ I would be buying as much as I could per month.

But it is a loser's game with the AU$ sadly. The AU$ could increase by 10% at any time. Nothing seems to be making sense why the AU$ is in such poor shape.

Great for Australian exports though. Fuel not so good it is now around $6.45 per US gallon in Australia. Which will push inflation....

Looks like lets see what happens next year again!
Pillar of the Community
United States
567 Posts
 Posted 10/18/2018  1:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The rebound is in the progress; Gold is around $1230, Silver still weak.

However, Since Banksters are still net long on both Gold and Silver, in futures market; it is not recommended to initiate short position now.

Tomorrow's weekly futures report will show us what Banksters been doing. The report is here, https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm updated around every Friday 3:30pm.
Pillar of the Community
United States
567 Posts
 Posted 10/19/2018  4:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add leon1998 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Weekly futures reports released today:

In the Gold futures report, Banksters increased SHORT position by a massive 21,176 contracts (each contract is 100 oz of Gold); reduced LONG position by 8,862 contracts.

In the Silver futures report, Banksters increased SHORT position by a 4,141 contracts (each contract is 5000 oz of Silver); increased LONG position by 858 contracts.

Apparently, the rally experts have been touting for a week, is quickly approaching an end. At current pace, Banksters could be READY within two weeks, to resume the downtrend for Gold and Silver.

Isn't Midterm election just two weeks away? What a timing for Banksters.
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