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NCLT - Collectibles Surviving Beyond The Upcoming Cashless Society?

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Pillar of the Community
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 Posted 10/27/2018  10:35 pm Show Profile   Check canadian_coins's eBay Listings Bookmark this topic Add canadian_coins to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
That's a loaded, multi-facetted question.

First of all, it's pretty obvious that "hard money" - cash is gradually replaced with other forms of payment: credit, debit, Apple Pay, PayPal, etc...

In Norway, fewer than 10% of people use cash. Sweden is also virtually cashless. Even beggars have card terminals due to the lack of currency in circulation. Finland is technically cashless. In some Scandinavian countries there are businesses that have "no cash" signs.

This is an unstoppable worldwide trend. Cash is out.

Fast forward to a time when coins and bills are no longer produced: 2045.

What's your thought on that prospect, and the effect of NCLT going forward?



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 Posted 10/27/2018  11:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silveroid to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think, the "base" of NCLT, is not circulation, but bullion coin.
It kind of art on the silver / gold round plus "synthetic" denomination.
metal content - this is the bottom value, and the top influenced by scarcity and appeal.

So basically would say that NCLT will continue.

Ceramic painted plates in the souvenir shops all over the world could be close example.
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 Posted 10/27/2018  11:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hate the idea. It means every purchase is traceable and recorded. I have not ever, and do not buy illegal things. But its no one's business but my own what I am spending my money for. In a cashless society I can see people being even more bombarded with unwanted spam/advertisements b/c spending trends will be tracked and sold just like browsing habits are. I can see criminals breaking into databases to track down possible targets for specific expensive items that were bought etc.

No thank you. I will go back to bartering as much as possible if this kind of thing ever hits the US. And while I know cities are already trending cashless for convenience sake, there are still a lot of us outside of city environments who go to garage sales, flea markets, farmer's markets, auctions, hobby shows, county fairs, bake sales, and other types of private businesses/sales etc. who still use coins and bills.
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 Posted 10/27/2018  11:58 pm  Show Profile   Check canadian_coins's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add canadian_coins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I can see criminals breaking into databases to track down possible targets for specific expensive items that were bought etc.


True. But those crimes are not against the person. You won't get killed for your wallet.

In some contries, you cannot take the bus without electronic payment. It is proven to be safer for the workers.

Bank tellers and businesses would prefer not to handle cash.

Crime is actually one of the main reasons for going cashless.
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Edited by canadian_coins
10/27/2018 11:59 pm
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 Posted 10/28/2018  12:10 am  Show Profile   Check canadian_coins's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add canadian_coins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
So basically would say that NCLT will continue.


Agreed. Perhaps only coins with historical significance though.

IMO, in 2045 when the next generation lives fully without currency all currency collectibles will undergo major price drops down to bullion value unless certified. 3D printing / fakes will cast a dark cloud. Who will be able to tell the difference between real & fake ?




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 Posted 10/28/2018  01:02 am  Show Profile   Check spruett001's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add spruett001 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Bank tellers and businesses would prefer not to handle cash.

Crime is actually one of the main reasons for going cashless.


Would bank tellers exist then? In a digital cashless society, I don't see a reason for physical bank locations. I wouldn't say that crime has been a significant factor in society moving away from cash, but that's my opinion.

I do think the U.S. will eventually be technically cashless, but I think it will take longer than 2045.

NCLT would probably survive for some time after cash essentially disappears from the market. Anything non-PM would go first, but the PMs will always be with us, I believe. Existing hoards of BU common coins may sustain a future market without the PM value for quite a while.

Any shift(s) will most likely be so gradual as to be ignored easily, IMO.
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 Posted 10/28/2018  02:47 am  Show Profile   Check canadian_coins's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add canadian_coins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Would bank tellers exist then? In a digital cashless society, I don't see a reason for physical bank locations.


Bingo. In a few years from now, human bank tellers will no longer exist.


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 Posted 10/28/2018  03:28 am  Show Profile   Check NumisRob's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add NumisRob to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I am currently touring France and am quite amazed at how that country has changed from being primarily cash-based in the 1980s to very much non-cash based now. At hotels and gas stations, card payment is preferred, and when I produced a 10-euro note to pay admission to a State-run historic site yesterday, the cashier asked me if I had a card...

I imagine that, as with Postal Services, most mints around the world will just churn out more and more coins for collectors if fewer are required for actual circulation. Back in 1972, when stamps were commonly used, the British Post Office issued 6 different sets during the year (averaging 3 or 4 stamps per set), with a total face value of about 1.25. This year they are issuing about 20 different sets (averaging 10 stamps per set) with a total face value of about 140 - and hardly any of those stamps will actually be stuck on letters and used!
Edited by NumisRob
10/28/2018 03:31 am
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 Posted 10/28/2018  05:56 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JGG to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'd imagine that precious metals NCLT will no longer have a denomination assigned to it. It is a redundancy anyway, since many of the coins are not legal tender. Maybe an assay design by the RCM on each medallion.

In many European countries high VAT taxes are assigned to precious metals, and I think they do this to dissuade savers, tax evaders and money launderers from hiding $$ in an untraceable asset that is outside the banking system.

In a cashless society government would put measures in place to stop people from hiding money in cryptocurrency and precious metals.
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 Posted 10/28/2018  11:57 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Alex A to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Interesting question. IMHO there will always be a place for collectibles and bullion. The collectibles market will likely continue to shrink due to demographics. Bullion should continue "as is" because there is always a core demand from several different areas (jewellery, precious metals investment, preppers, etc.)

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 Posted 10/28/2018  12:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sharkman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I must admit that I had to look NCLT up in the glossary. I assume the original post refers to bullion coins, but in a cashless society, all coins will be obsolete and therefore NCLT. So I take the question as ultimately applying to all coin collecting in general.
Some aspects of the hobby will be hit hard. There will be no more fresh coin rolls to search for errors or rare varieties. Others may not be effected much. A mint state 1914-D Lincoln, for example, could remain as desirable to collectors as it is now. Casual interest in collecting could disappear as there will be no more pocket change to sort through, and the number of people in the hobby could decrease. Think of the number of serious collectors who started by looking for different coins in circulation. I did.
In a sense, collecting coins is not that much different from collecting anything else whether it be art or baseball cards. It is a non-essential luxury in which the item being collected has a market value much higher than its intrinsic value. Why do we collect such things? Because we find them aesthetically pleasing (think of the importance of grade and eye appeal), historically significant, and mentally stimulating. That seems to be true of all antiques.
To the extent that coins are indeed rare, due to either availability or condition, interest in collecting should continue, although there is no way to predict how interesting people will find "old coins" in the future. Coins will still be old, rare, beautiful and desirable to people who value such characteristics. But predicting the market will not be possible beyond making an educated guess.
People still have an interest in ancient antiquities like Greek or Roman vases, sculptures, and yes, coins.
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 Posted 10/28/2018  2:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
In some countries, you cannot take the bus without electronic payment. It is proven to be safer for the workers.

A good point I had not thought about! I guess that;s b/c I don't live in a very urban environment where bus transit, subways, etc. are a daily norm for most people.



Quote:
Crime is actually one of the main reasons for going cashless.

Crime, no matter what is done, will find a way to benefit.

When I said,

Quote:
I can see criminals breaking into databases to track down possible targets for specific expensive items that were bought etc.

I was trying to say I can see where criminals could more easily find better home targets by seeing who has the money to spend on higher priced items continually. For example, I have a friend who is a millionaire, but he chooses to have a normal sized house, a non-expensive pick up truck, etc. inside his house where not many people go is different matter matter. His having money is largely unknown, which is the way he wants it to be.
Every purchase being traceable is an invasion of this type of privacy.

I can envision organized crime getting into the databases, finding people who do buy the expensive stuff, double checking those targets also don't spend money on ammunition, can tell which kind of security system was bought (to hack that specific one), etc., and having a heyday being thankful they have new ways to cherrypick easier targets.

Loss of privacy is never a good thing = welcome to the fishbowl. Being totally cashless facilitates loss of privacy in a huge way.

I am not saying it won't eventually come. I am saying that I feel for those who will not know what it means to be able to mind their own business.
- When I value " being right" more than what IS right, I am then right...a fool.
- How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
- Prosp long and liver.
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 Posted 10/28/2018  6:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Looney4Numi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The banking cartel's cashless agenda is gaining more resistance lately:

Losing the War on Cash: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...ciety-agenda

Bank of Canada: https://wolfstreet.com/2018/10/20/b...k-of-canada/
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 Posted 10/28/2018  7:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Earle42 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Looney4Numi
I enjoyed reading those articles. Thanks for posting.
- When I value " being right" more than what IS right, I am then right...a fool.
- How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash?
- Prosp long and liver.
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 Posted 10/28/2018  7:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Looney4Numi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Earle42

You're welcome. There is hope for us yet.
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 Posted 10/28/2018  8:30 pm  Show Profile   Check canadian_coins's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add canadian_coins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Looney4Numi - good articles but as Picard once said, "Resistance Is Futile". There may be pockets of resistance here and there, but a Cashless Society is already underway. It will happen. Small things like vending machines... are now cashless where I work. Nice!

Parking downtown? Cashless. Finally!

I agree with Sharkman's comment that some aspects of the hobby will be hit hard. Obviously, younger generations will not care much about coins. Demand will drop significantly, and aging collectors will try to unload without losing too much on their investments.

Some NCLTs may in fact stay relevant for a few more years beyond cashless. Some are a vehicle for investors/speculators and others bear historical significance.



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