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State Of The Canadian Coin Market?

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Pillar of the Community

United States
978 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2020  4:56 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add bosox to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
I am curious what the board thinks of the current state of the Canadian coin market. I will also be curious whether the dealers have a different perspective of the market than the collectors. I will start with my perspective of my area of interest, large cents.

1. The best of the best cents still have competitive demand and prices are strong. A little surprisingly, I see this no matter what TPG plastic holds the coin. Most who collect the best large cents prefer PCGS holders, but I know a few collectors who are working on top notch sets in ICCS holders. We all look for under-rated top coins in other holders to cross to either PCGS or ICCS.

2. As pointed out in other threads, crossing large cents is tricky business. Many mint state red ICCS coins will not cross as red at PCGS, or may get body-bagged due to differing tolerances on coins with problems. Circulated large cents tend to grade higher at PCGS than at ICCS. As I said, tricky stuff. These generalizations affect demand and pricing when buying cents online (not seeing them in hand).

3. The USD/CAD exchange rate really matters a lot. At $1.30 or so, many high value Canada large cents are moving south. I doubt very many will return to Canada until the exchange rate swings back the other way, if it ever does in our lifetimes.

4. The market for lesser mint state large cents is very, very slow. Now is not the time to be selling a common date 62 or 63 large cent. Is it time to buy them? Who knows?

5. Nice, original key date large cents are in demand at any grade. So many circulated large cents have been played with that original, problem free ones are scarce and desirable. I think this could be a sleeper area.

6. One-cent varieties are currently popular. Most collectors are into the hunt of finding them themselves. A few collectors are willing to pay for high grade or really rare varieties. I expect a few more high grade varieties may come out of older collections, but I am not sure there are a lot of the high grade rare ones (81 SSN, 59 9/6, 82 DDO) left to come out. Time will tell on these.

7. I think the one-cent variety demand is here to stay this time, but I do not know that for sure. It has come and gone a few times during the last 70 years. The real question is - will it grow, or not?

8. Variety pricing on the more common one-cent varieties will go down. We are almost ten years in on collectors looking for them, finding them, and hoarding them. Most collectors who want the common ones, have them. Unless variety collecting suddenly becomes more mainstream, selling the common ones at published values will be difficult.

9. Perhaps the biggest question of all will be how many collectors of any Canadian coins will exist in the future. I see a few encouraging signs with YN's, but not enough to make me comfortable the future market will be strong, or even average. I think the RCM and NCLT help start people into the hobby, but will they stay and move on to collecting traditional circulating Canadian coins? In my mind, these are huge questions that will impact the future market for all except the museum quality Canadian coins.

All JMHO. What do you think?
Edited by bosox
10/14/2020 4:58 pm
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3206 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2020  5:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add okiecoiner to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree with everything that you said, Rob. However, as you know, I'm not into the "bright and shiny" examples. Now, in the mid-70's, I wonder how I'll get rid of 5-6,000 large cents when I go 'poof!".
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New Zealand
1502 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2020  6:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fourmack to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Okiecoiner

Quote:
I agree with everything that you said, Rob. However, as you know, I'm not into the "bright and shiny" examples. Now, in the mid-70's, I wonder how I'll get rid of 5-6,000 large cents when I go 'poof!".

way down South
I see very few in NZ so I am having to shift my collection sideways and now collecting Aussie copper to 1939 as they have varieties as well.

My Prediction
LARGE CENTS WILL STILL BE COLLECTED BY ALL IN 50 to 100 YEARS FROM NOW
Cheers Don

Vickies cents and GB Farthings nut.
"Old" is a figure of speech and nothing more
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United States
1792 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2020  6:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ijn1944 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Wonder what explorers/archeologists from another planetary system will find on 'Earth' numismatic-wise in another 50 million years.
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Canada
9317 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2020  6:30 pm  Show Profile   Check SPP-Ottawa's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add SPP-Ottawa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Concerning point #8.

Most common large cent varieties that I list on eBay, that are generally problem-free coins in lower grades, sell quite readily for close to the 65 Charlton catalogue published prices. More collectors are getting into varieties, and they want affordable examples that show the variety well.
"Discovery follows discovery, each both raising and answering questions, each ending a long search, and each providing the new instruments for a new search." -- J. Robert Oppenheimer

Content of this post is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses...0/deed.en_US

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Canada
2311 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2020  6:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add doubleeagle59 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The Canadian coin market stinks.

Since 2008, the prices crashed, big spending collectors stopped buying and way too many auctions having super high grades flooded the market.

Anybody tells you different, they're most likely a dealer.
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United States
978 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2020  7:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add bosox to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
SPP - I hope you are right that more are interested in varieties. Time will tell if that continues and holds up the prices. I think we agree that demand is far more important than supply in determining prices.
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United States
978 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2020  7:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add bosox to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Doubleeagle - We do not have an obvious apex collector in the Canadian market, such as Belzberg, or the previous owner of the Canadiana collection, or Cook. That said, there are still collectors buying five and six figure Canadian coins. I saw several at the Cook auction. I think the market problems begin below the five and six figure levels.
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Canada
1601 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2020  8:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Smallcentguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think the hobby is seeing an uptick in interest. People have time on their hands. Silver and gold prices are high. Non-copper coins are making money for collectors. I suspect a lot of common date silver has been melted recently. But there seems to be real demand for copper too. It is just one example, but TCNC last night sold a bunch of 1990s mint cent rolls. They went for more or less $50 each. Pretty nice price I would say. I have sold a few surplus coins at auction lately and I have been pleased with about 80% of the results. Not bad I would say.
Valued Member
Canada
379 Posts
 Posted 10/14/2020  9:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Talonbat to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There has been a big uptick during the pandemic. The usual stuff like most keydates seem to be exceeding trends(if properly graded, not the usual overgraded stuff you find). I also saw the insane price for 90s original cent rolls, but this only seems affect the cents for the 90s. There seems to be a similar situation with most of the 80s and some of 70s rolls for 1, 5, 10 and 25 cent. I've seen a good uptick in the multi-coloured series of bills, it's not that they are going for that much more it's just I'm selling at least 10 times as much as before. The fact that a lot of people are staying inside now and the big increase to gold and silver has brought in some fresh blood.
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Canada
2428 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2020  01:36 am  Show Profile   Check Wade's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Wade to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
TCNC last night sold a bunch of 1990s mint cent rolls. They went for more or less $50 each. Pretty nice price I would say.


$50 a roll isn't pretty nice.... it's pretty insane. CERB benefits at it's finest.

as to the current state of the market, I can't comment other than to say that the common crap on eBay is there day after day, week after week, month after month - but the good stuff seems to be moving if it's priced fairly.

Valued Member
Canada
384 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2020  07:52 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Very interesting thread.

As a return collector - currently ~2 years in - I'm very keenly trolling ebay and other auction sites and I'm buying steadily. I'm mostly buying key date NFLD Victorian silver, though, as my collection grows, I'm moving cautiously into copper as well as Canadian and the British Empire more generally. I'm also actively seeking to replace VF-30 and lower with EF and higher versions; as my own grading skill improves. I find the hunt to be very exciting and I think I'm in it for the long haul.

The question in my mind is whether there are enough people like me to sustain this hobby on into the future? I see a few people on these threads who are much younger but mostly my impression is that we're a bunch of 50+ guys. And mostly I see the same names popping up in these threads.... Will people continue to think that scarce old coins have any value 40 years from now?
Valued Member
Canada
87 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2020  2:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MathMan27 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As a still new-ish collector, my perspective might be different, and your outlook may depend on what you collect. I am not a large cent guy (except for filling out my type-set), so I can't comment on most of the OP's points.

I collect Canadian silver dollars, aiming mostly for MS examples, and I can tell you that at least from looking (all anecdotal of course) at what's available on ebay and a few dealers, it's the same stuff that was there months ago. A few of the dealers I have bought dollars from in the past seem to have depleted their inventories of the nicest examples, and without coin shows, have been much slower in acquiring new inventory. So if I want nicer stuff, I may have to go the auction route (which I have done before and might do again), or wait until coin shows return. Prices still seem high for many lower demand items, even with the price of silver's recent rise. I can be patient as I have varied and elastic collecting interests, so I can wait for the right coin to come along for a given date.

As to point 9, I am hardly a YN (I'm 42), but I did notice very few people younger than me on the bourse at the RCNA show in Calgary in 2019. That doesn't bode well for the overall future of the hobby.
Pillar of the Community
Canada
2311 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2020  3:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add doubleeagle59 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Most dealers still think it's the pre-2008 'good times' with the coin market.

Trends hasn't been lowered and the dealers haven't lowered their selling percentage price of Trends either.

They're still looking for 80% to 100% of Trends, while a lot of good to high grade material sits on Ebay at 60% of Trends.

I'm of course speaking in general terms, but a retail price from a dealer (if they truly want to move their goods) should be between 50% to 60% of Trends.
Edited by doubleeagle59
10/15/2020 3:07 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
978 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2020  3:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add bosox to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I am not a dealer so I may be wrong, but it seems to me that Canadian dealers are probably sitting on quite a bit of inventory, most of it in ICCS holders. As long as they can handle the carrying costs, they do not have much incentive to lower their sell prices or lower Trends numbers.

That may change if the market in many areas stays sluggish and dealers feel economic pressure to sell more. If that occurs, I suspect they may first sell to other dealers who can stand the pressure longer. I do not think their first choice will be to make big reductions in retail prices, as that could be self-defeating for the dealer community in the long term.
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1602 Posts
 Posted 10/15/2020  3:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add papeldog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Some interesting questions Rob, my take on them.

1) I think both holders still hold the nicer Cent coins. I prefer PCGS my self as well.

2) I have had it go both ways when cross grading from ICCS holders to PCGS holders. The EF - AU coins seem to do really well, as well nice MS 63 mark free coins with eye appeal in ICCS holders.

3) It sucks to be a Canadian when it comes to the exchange rate. I remember not long ago it was the other way around so one never knows.

5) I have done well on e-bay as a buyer in this area, for question (4) ms-62- MS-63

6) I agree my heart thumps when I see one for sale in an auction they usually go higher than my budget.

7) I agree.

8) I think it is happening already in trends and buyers.

9) Who really knows?
Edited by papeldog
10/15/2020 3:58 pm
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