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Data Driven Price Changes In The PCGS Price Guide

 
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 Posted 02/20/2021  07:54 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Winesteven to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
I read that Mark Ferguson, probably our hobby's top expert on coin pricing data, was recently hired by PCGS to be in charge of the PCGS Price Guide. I just noticed this morning that in a couple of series of interest to me (Two Cents, SLQ's, and especially Classic Silver Commemoratives) there have been pricing adjustments to the guide. What's good is that these are not just simple "across the board" increases or decreases, but appear to be specific changes that are data driven, as there are both ups and downs in certain dates and certain grades.

My sense is not all series have yet had the time to have had their prices analyzed in this detailed manner, as I'm sure this is an ongoing, never ending process, but I like it!

Guides are only guides, and every one has its limitations. But it's healthy if attempts are made to tie the prices in a guide to real life auction data!

Steve
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!

My collecting "Pride & Joy" is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.PCGS.com/setregistry/ty...edset/213996
Edited by Winesteven
02/20/2021 09:51 am
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 Posted 02/20/2021  12:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Slider23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The TPG market has two tier pricing with CAC coins and none CAC coins. With new pricing management, I would not be surprised to see PCGS make some changes to reflect CAC pricing. CDN already has a CAC pricing guide.
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 Posted 02/21/2021  7:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add bandsdean to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Glad to see the Oregon Trails finally going up. Try to find an attractive 1933-D in MS66 below 700.00 is a challenge!
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 Posted 02/21/2021  10:16 pm  Show Profile   Check Lancek's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Lancek to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I find PCGS and NGC price guides inflated. I like to use Numismedia. I also don't like that the big two try to create demand for one of their inventions. All this "First day issue" or "Early Release" hype. They have separate price guide values for many of those now. Showing them to be worth more. Well, no dealer I've ever talked to thinks they are.

You charge people for a designation. Then show on your site that the designation adds value. Conflict of interest IMHO.
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 Posted 02/23/2021  12:59 am  Show Profile   Check paralyse's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add paralyse to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
PCGS Rare Coin Price Guide is a waste of ink and paper in terms of actual pricing. It's nowhere near Greysheet, or even Numismedia FMV.

Since the data is not based on an average of realized sale prices, it is basically invented numbers. Even on Coinfacts you can see this happen, where they list a coin for, say, $700 price guide, but the last 5 years of listed sales are all between 300-500.

The pandemic has squeezed margins for dealers and right now there are lot more sellers than buyers overall based on the feedback I get from my dealer network group, especially with people dumping bullion and junk silver due to high metals prices.

People have been saying for years that commems pre-86 were going to jump, but my experience has been that the market is already oversaturated and a coin has to be pretty special to bring strong prices, such as CAC bean, toning, or a good provenance/pedigree. Obviously there are some issues which are always in demand such as Spanish Trail and the Lafayette/Pan Pac coins but for the most part there's still just not seeming to be a lot of interest in the "state" issues of the 30s and 40s. Lots of unsold inventory, and most of it is high grade and slabbed.
Longhorn Coins & Exonumia
Member ANA - EAC - TNA - SSDC - CCT #890

"Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis
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