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 Replies: 28 / Views: 6,272 |
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Valued Member
 United States
83 Posts |
I'd like to hear more about your attempts at coin flipping, if you wouldnt mind sending me an email and then sharing with me your experience sometime, I may have a few questions...I am too new of a member to send you an email
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3342 Posts |
For what it's worth, the only freakishly good deal I've gotten lately was on collectorscorner. The seller was just not up to date on current market, and was pricing by the book.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1747 Posts |
Quote:When you looked at ebay did you look at sold coins or coins for sale? There is a big difference. This is the key when looking for prices on ebay. You can list an item for any price. What matters is what folks actually pay for. The other part of a price/value (especially as a coin gets more expensive) as has been stated in this thread are the characteristics of the specific coins (strike, color, etc) |
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Valued Member
United States
157 Posts |
No one buys from ebay. You buy from a seller, and you're both using ebay as the platform for the transaction. ebay isn't setting the prices, the sellers are. Obviously, if buyers are paying more than NGC or HA, they're willing to do so, and it's NGC and HA that are inaccurate. |
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Valued Member
United States
83 Posts |
is there a public data base that shows the final sales data off of ebay? |
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Moderator
 United States
187446 Posts |
Not sure, but you can search ebay for completed sales to research historical pricing. |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5661 Posts |
ebay and Heritage are both selling platforms for sellers, so they should have comparable sold prices. However, one difference is that ebay sells both via auction and buy-it-now, while HA is basically just auction. BIN prices tend to be higher than auction because the seller is willing to wait for a buyer that will pay their price. If you take your example of graded MS-64 1921 Peace dollars, most of the solds on ebay in the past 3 months were BIN. There were just 7 coins that sold by auction (all straight-graded) with an average price of $1085. There also happened to be 7 straight-graded MS-64 1921 Peace dollars that sold on Heritage in the past 3 months, and the average selling price (including buyer fees) was $1235. The numbers are small, but if you compare just auction sales for the same coin and the same time period, there's not much difference, and HA prices are actually a bit higher.
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Valued Member
United States
83 Posts |
I am getting a lot of great information from you guys and appreciate it. I am a retired actuary and am intrigued about he possibility of building a model for arbitrage. It seems clear Heritage has a lot of public data available that can be sliced and diced in all sorts of ways. I 'think' the buyers on Heritage will be more sophisticated than ebay, but maybe I am completely wrong on this . I also think my Peace dollar example may be a bad one, as as has been pointed out, there is new 2021 activity ocurring.....I think maybe looking at some other coins' key dates. Zurie..can you tell me how you know that most of the sales on ebay for the Peace dollar in grade 64 were Bin and that there were 7 sales on ebay through auction at $1085.....(Incidentally, I think median will be a better data point to look at vs, average, but that is not an important point to meat this moment) |
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Valued Member
United States
83 Posts |
If 9 coins sell for $100 and the tenth coin sells for $5100; the average price was $600, but you should really only expect to pay $100 for the typical coin. This is why median is the better statistic vs. average
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5661 Posts |
Filter your search on ebay for sold items, and you can then view either all listings, auction, or BIN. The 1921 Peace dollar example is fine as long as there isn't much price movement in the time period you're analyzing. Prices in general have been strong over the past several months, so looking back 3 years on Heritage would be a mistake. I doubt there is a consistent arbitrage opportunity between selling platforms, but there might be between buying carefully at auction (whether HA or ebay) and selling BIN. ADD: Agree with your distinction between mean and median, but with this small sample size, median is problematic as well. Edited by Zurie
04/21/2021 4:03 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4233 Posts |
I tend to rely on Numismedia for price data. 1921 Peace in MS64 currently shows $1040 with +9.47% last 30 days and +13.04% YTD, which seems to align pretty well with what others have said here. As far as sophistication, there are certainly more suckers on ebay than Heritage but the material Heritage offers isn't designed to sucker people either. I agree that many/most of the BINs on ebay are inflated, but so is all of the "make offer" stuff on Heritage. Sellers seem content to leave the bait in the water for months or years. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5238 Posts |
ebay indicates if a BIN item was sold, but the original BIN price is not necessarily the sale price. Quite frequently the seller will accept a lower offer, but ebay does not tell you what the final sale price was.
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Moderator
United States
187446 Posts |
Quote:eBay indicates if a BIN item was sold, but the original BIN price is not necessarily the sale price. Quite frequently the seller will accept a lower offer, but ebay does not tell you what the final sale price was. This is true. I always look at those with a raised eyebrow, knowing the listed price cannot be trusted. |
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Replies: 28 / Views: 6,272 |
First Page
Posted 04/21/2021 1:12 pm
