Another Whack At A Dead Horse

Hey FlipOfACoin, take a look at this article if you haven't already;

http://www.coinweek.com/market-repo...n-gold-sale/

not quite the same coin types but the sentiment is there, some stuff exists in quantities while other stuff is impossible to get even at full catalog pricing. Census data is also only an indicator, my buddy that owned ICG told me a story of one gold coin that had a total pop of around 55 at all the TPG's only a dozen examples are known, he told me every year they would see the same coin come through trying for an upgrade, same hairlines, it was obvious to the graders, every time it sold it was cracked out sent around to all the TPG's hoping for that one point, which of course it never got, he said all the TPG's were aware of it. I doubt this would happen with modern coins as they have pretty high mintage's, but still an interesting tidbit. My boss buys a ton of modern mint products, he has never sent any of them in for grading, I suspect there are many like him, more than those that do submit for grading. So the likely hood of census numbers going way up in the future remains to be seen, I'm trying to get him to send in his 1995W ASE it's a 70 but I doubt PCGS would give it a 70, NGC no problem, the spread in money is just too great.

But you also have to realize that what remains in a dealers inventory that doesn't sell at $310 is not likely "A" Grade material.

I sold a high grade coin to a specialist in that series for 3X the "price guide" price at PCGS. In this instance we both agreed that the price was fair, it was negotiated out, and while I was happy to conclude the sale, I realized that the coin I sold was of such quality that I would likely not find another one to replace it.

The guide is something that leaves open tons of room for manipulation. I'm currently working on a book that scrutinizes 50 years of coin pricing- the approach I took is too multi-layered for a discussion board thread- and I also want to SELL the book at some point- so I'll have to hold off from getting into it- but let's just say in every coin series, every year, and every mintage contains real numismatic treasures- and likewise, there are lots of pretenders out there- going up in price due to the romantic ideal of "value". the key in this hobby is to do either do it for fun- whereas price is irrelevant- or know exactly what you are doing and the difference between the "floor" and the "ceiling" when it comes to coin prices.

There was one coin that was cracked out something like 14 times before it was sufficiently overgraded.

The RedBook had a simple solution for ultra rarities. They'd list a price like (1986 Bigdeal sale, VF $100,000.06)

There's no point in guessing what a coin "might" bring, even if the number cruncher was qualified to make such a decision.

You put it better than I did! Exactly what happens.