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 Replies: 12 / Views: 1,386 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
500 Posts |
In general, I'd expect that rarity and grade would determine general wholesale and retail prices for coins. And in most cases that holds true. But in my favorite coins ( $10 Indian gold ) there is a weird case that just makes no sense to me. 1907(no motto) has an overall NGC population of 5908 and a mintage of 239,400. And in MS62 grade there are 1615 of them registered with NGC. 1914 has an overall NGC population of 2048( almost 1/3 of 1907 ) and a mintage of 151,050 ( > 50% less than 1907 ). In MS62 grade there are 663 registered ( so well below 1/2 that of 1907 ). Logic would dictate that 1914 is certainly a more rare date - pretty much across the board. Yet in MS62 the 1914 wholesale is about $1000 and retail is $1235 PCGS while the 1907 wholesale is $1325 and PCGS retail is $1900. The 1914 is rare across the board in all grades yet the 1907 is pricier also across the board. It just makes no sense to me. Most of the rest of the years "loosely" fall in line that the more rare the date the more its wholesale and retail is. Is the "cache" of 1907 being the first year minted that big a factor? They just both are way out of whack with the rest of the dates in the series.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2540 Posts |
For one thing the 1907 No motto is needed as a type coin.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
First year of issue and a two year only type with the second year probably being scarcer..
Edited by Conder101
04/19/2012 4:34 pm
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CCF Sponsor
United States
702 Posts |
I, for one, prefer the no motto design. I find it cleaner and prettier. Since it's the ONLY no motto, maybe there are others like me so the demand is simply higher?
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
987 Posts |
Price is where supply and demand meet. If there is a very low supply but also very little demand, then price will reflect that. If, on the other hand, a coin was minted in plentiful amounts but demand is so heavy that it's still hard to obtain, then that coin will carry a high price tag. Take the 1909-S VDB Lincoln Cent where 484,000 were minted. This coin in VG condition carries a price tag of around $1.000. Then look at the 1884 3 cent piece. A mere 1,700 business strikes of this coin were minted. Yet in VG condition this coin has a price tag of only $400. The difference between this coin and the 1909-S VDB is that the one coin is immensely popular and always in demand. The other one, not so much. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3294 Posts |
And yet, it is much harder to find the 1884 3 cent, whereas the SVDB can be found at most any coin show.
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CCF Sponsor
United States
702 Posts |
And yet, it is much harder to find 3 cent collectors (which is too bad in my book), whereas Lincoln Wheat collectors can be found just about anywhere.
Heheheh.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3294 Posts |
Well if anyone has those 3 cents from the 1880s that they no longer want, look me up.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
500 Posts |
See, I am oblivious to the whole TYPE scene so that does add a wrinkle I hadn't thought of.
But it doesn't explain why 1914 is priced relatively low compared to its relative rarity. Both are out of whack!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
9792 Posts |
I don't read too much into the poulation reports as so many coins that are borderline on a grade that makes money may be submitted many times hoping for an upgrade. There are known gold coins whose pop. totals surpass the entire mintage of the coin. My friend that owned ICG told me a story of getting the same (exact same) $10.00 eagle in when he was at PCGS and again at ICG over 15 times total, this was on a coin of a mintage of around 25-30 pieces. It was a proof that all the graders knew, and everytime it changed hands it was cracked out and submitted again in hopes of that elusive upgrade.
But as to your question I agree it's the no motto is needed by type collectors as well as set collectors therefore increasing the demand for the no motto coin greatly over the 1914 double eagle, and add that it is a first year of issue (another way people collect sets), there is way more demand for the 1907 no motto than the 1914 dated double eagles.
"Buy the Book Before You Buy the Coin" - Aaron R. Feldman - "And read it" - Me 2013! ANA Life Member #3288 in good standing since 1981, ANS, Early American Coppers Member (EAC), Colonial Coin Collectors Club member (C4), Conder Token Collector Club member (CTCC), Civil War Token Society (CWTS) member, Liberty Seated Collectors Club (LSCC) & Numismatic Bibliomania Society member (NBS), USMex, Member in good standing, 2¢ variety collector. See my want page: http://goccf.com/t/140440 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
500 Posts |
I am kind of using pop report and mintage together, as a relative gauge of rarity - to eliminate the skew of re-submittals you mention westcoin. I'd also expect that resubmittals would kind of even out over the whole population - so that relative counts are reasonably proportional.
So why is it that 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913 all seem to fall in line with what I'd expect, yet the relatively-rare 1914 ( compared to those ) is pretty much the same or just slightly more valued. I'd have expected it'd be a much bigger jump.
It makes me wonder if 1914's may one day "jump up" in value a bit more ( relatively speaking ) to correct this anomoly? So would that be a date to lean toward now (for purchase) if projecting to future sale value down the road? IOW! Almost a "will the market correct itself later when the relative rarity becomes more of a factor?" question.
The 1932's and 1926's are so dominantly plentiful in this coin that you'd think eventually the other dates would separate themselves out a lot more than they currently are. Just thinking out loud! ;)
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Rest in Peace
United States
4849 Posts |
When we are talking about classic gold coins....there are a lot of "better" dates available for the same price as common dates. The reason being, with gold so high, it takes a certain amount of demand to raise the value of the coin much above melt. Higher grade examples, and exceptionally difficult examples(as well as the 1907 type) all have enough demand to raise the coin to a higher percentage over melt.
This makes it easier for folks to purchase "better" dates for practically melt. With gold at this level, I can't see a 1914 indian for instance gaining much value in the future unless gold continues to rise. HOWEVER, I think one significant advantage to buying a coin like this, is that if gold drops a lot, the value of the better dates will hold somewhat better than it will for common dates....the less relevance melt value has in the equation, better dates will start to show their "premium". So I would always recommend buying a better date gold coin over a common date gold coin at a point when melt value eliminates the premium.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Quote:
And yet, it is much harder to find 3 cent collectors (which is too bad in my book), whereas Lincoln Wheat collectors can be found just about anywhere.
Sort of funny but really true. Regardless of what price guide or list you use, popularity rules in coins. Same is true of almost anything in collecting. And too, remember that all price Guides are just that, GUIDES. There is no manufactures list prices on coins. The only true value of a coin is what is written on that coin. A $10 Gold Coin is a $10 coin. If you want to pay a thosand for it, then that is what it is worth. This is so true of most collectables. Look at the pirces on a 1957 Chevy Convertible car. Just do to popularity. They are all over the place yet fantastically overpriced. I have a car from 67 that had 440 made and not worth the tires on a 57 Chevy. So be it with coins. Popularity rules. |
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Replies: 12 / Views: 1,386 |
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Posted 04/19/2012 4:32 pm
