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 Replies: 23 / Views: 3,181 |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Poll Question
A couple posts about bullion today got me thinking, is there ever a price point for silver or gold which would basically over take the numismatic value of a coin?
For example Silvers currently right around 30 but some old silver coins like the classic commens can command 100s if not 1000s of dollars. If silver were to shoot up to 1500 an ounce would all those coins rise with it or does anyone think there would eventually become a price point where people would just decide the metal content is worth more than the coin.
I dont really have an opinion on this one way or another and interested to get everyones thoughts. The only thing I know for sure that would end collecting from a numismatic stand point would be a SHTF doomsday situation
For those that do think it could happen under different circumstances would be interesting to hear what price you think that would occur at
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Valued Member
United States
223 Posts |
I went with no. I think numismatic coins will always be worth more than just the content of their silver value. This would be mainly due to mintage figures. The gap may close to a narrower margin but collectible coins should always be worth more than a same weight lump of silver. In a true SHTF scenario, please disregard everyting I just said.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1374 Posts |
I voted No, but it is possible. For example, the world economy could tank into a deep depression and all collectibles could bite the dust.
For example, the recent downturn in the economy annihilated some collectibles markets like baseball cards and beanie babies. Imagine the unemployment rises to 25%, like during the great depression. Common folk would be dumping all their collections to make ends meet, and the rich would avoid buying them for fear of no future return.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts |
Quote:
[I]s there ever a price point for silver or gold which would basically over take the numismatic value of a coin? Yes, absolutely. It's happened countless times in the past, especially with silver coinage. Literally millions of 90% silver dimes, quarters, halves, and dollars have been sold for melt without a second thought. Yes, there are some specific rare coins that do command a numismatic premium sufficient to keep them out of the smelter's crucible. But the answer to your primary questions is "yes" without a doubt. |
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Pillar of the Community
Japan
666 Posts |
I was thinking about it awhile ago ...
I believe that numismatic premium comparative to bullion value will diminish for most of the coins. But it is not the case for rare coins. So, if some 10000 coins of one issue exist today priced twice the bullion value (bearing 100% numismatic premium)and if PM rises then numismatic premium will go down with every rise ...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3184 Posts |
yes its possible. For example a lot of numismatic non key gold coins are sold for bullion prices if gold is high
Even coins like proof silver kennedies, franklins, quarters, and dimes are worth melt when silver was high
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Bedrock of the Community
 13014 Posts |
After reading the responses I do agree that it has happened before and the coins with the lower premiums are in the most danger of this happening again. I could see this happening with the mid level ones too. I guess my question was two parts both in general and for the higher end rarer collectables.
I definitely agree with Drsandman that a bad economic situation has dragged collecting down as a whole as people will sell them off if the choice is that or paying a bill. I can certainly see the same thing happening with coins the longer this situation drags out. I will be interested to see if things ever do improve if the baseball card market will come back or if some of those other collectables are gone for good.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1374 Posts |
basebal21, Well said. Another facet I think about are hoarders. For example, I know of someone who has 11 rolls of 1909-S VDBs. Imagine if he dumped them all on ebay at once. I wrote a post a long time ago about playing the market on both sides: buying PMs as economies burst, and buying rare coins as bubbles form. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
It is interesting how 1 person could essentially crash the market at least on ebay for the time being if they put it all out at once. Unfortunately I didnt get into coins for the most part till we hit the downturn. In someways its good because I do think I'm getting some deals on my classic commems especially that didnt exist probably even 5 years ago. But I cant help but look back at the pm prices and think to myself if I had just saved a bar tab a week in college I could have been stacking gold eagles or platinum ones for about 1/8th of their current price. Currently I dont mind buying silver especially if its for a coin I really like. Most of my silver coins are my graded 70 moderns which I am not that concerned about crashing if silver goes back to 5 bucks but have stayed away from gold and platinum just because the loss could be so huge. Your point about releasing all at once would be well seen if gold started to plummet the market would be flooded with sellers. I think platinum is probably the safer bet between the two but still higher than I am comfortable with currently Edited by basebal21
08/24/2012 12:38 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1903 Posts |
As long as PMs move in lock step with inflation, numismatic value will always trump the metal value. It is when things get out of whack and PMs outpace inflation that we see the metal value begin to lap at the shores of numismatic values...and the higher the PM "tide" gets the more it will erode further up the beach. It is times like we are seeing now though that could be called a "rogue wave" that runs so far up the beach that it takes a degree of everything with it. Most of what is lost "far up the beach" is just what was on the surface, lost to the chaos as the unexpected wave rushes in. What is interesting to note is that, unlike the beach, there is no "sand" to fill the beach back in with when it comes to coin populations. This then imparts a self fulfilling aspect that, eventually, over time this "wave action" will improve numismatic values of coins once thought common that now become more scarce.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
That may be the best analogy to describe the situation. That 50 dollar spike really was a lot like a tidal wave, but low and behold it washed back out to sea for the time being
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
Quote:
coinwatch wrote:
Yes, absolutely. It's happened countless times in the past, especially with silver coinage. Literally millions of 90% silver dimes, quarters, halves, and dollars have been sold for melt without a second thought. Yes, there are some specific rare coins that do command a numismatic premium sufficient to keep them out of the smelter's crucible. But the answer to your primary questions is "yes" without a doubt.
This is correct. The gold and silver in coins will often be more valuable than the coins themselves. As PM prices go up, this happens more and more. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3294 Posts |
Numismatic value of things like MS Roosevelt dimes from the early 60s is already swamped by PM prices. I have gotten decent Barber coins for melt price as well, so I voted yes since it has already happened before. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts |
As long as there are collectors with the money to spend, they will pay the amount it take to save history from melting pots. As numismatic enthusiasts, that is our duty.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1391 Posts |
So silver hits $1500 an oz. What does that mean in reality? Some say the market wouldn't support that. I heard people say that about all sorts of things. They forget about inflation and wage increases. My grandparents talk about buying large candy bars that make our king size ones look small for a nickel. If you told them at the time that they would cost a couple of buck in 60 years, yeah that seems unbelieveable. But (in theory) we make are making more than a few cents an hour now. If silver hits $1500 an oz and stays there then minimun wage will probably be around $500 dollars an hour. Those of us with better jobs will probably be making $2000 an hour. So you have two coins that cost four hours wage, one is MS and the other is almost worn slick. Which one are you really going to buy?
Edited by allranger
08/24/2012 1:36 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
With silver at $80/oz, Mint State Morgans would be flying into melting pots around the world. It's a shame, but it will happen.
Edited by BH1964
08/24/2012 5:21 pm
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Replies: 23 / Views: 3,181 |
Posted 08/23/2012 11:28 pm
