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NGC Population Report

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Valued Member
wif99's Avatar
United States
377 Posts
 Posted 10/05/2012  4:39 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add wif99 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Does any one have the Numbers for :

2012S Acadia Quarters MS 66,67,68?

Curious because I am Trying to put together a set of MS67 PCGS and they are showing of 140 coins graded 19 are MS67 nothing higher

Then I See these on ebay
http://www.ebay.com/itm/NGC-2012-S-...em1c2b8dc592

http://www.ebay.com/itm/22112756584....m1438.l2649
And the PCGS is not even 1st Strike which counts for 11 of the 19
Valued Member
United States
102 Posts
 Posted 10/06/2012  12:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LXShutter to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
2012S Acadia Quarters MS 66,67,68?


239, 300, 3
Valued Member
wif99's Avatar
United States
377 Posts
 Posted 10/06/2012  1:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wif99 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Wow that is Quite a difference compared to PCGS

NGC MS66 MS67 MS68

239 300 3 well over 50% MS67

PCGS 110 19 0 About 15% MS67



Valued Member
United States
102 Posts
 Posted 10/06/2012  8:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LXShutter to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
well over 50% MS67

NGC total graded was 640. So a tad under 50% MS67. Also NGC graded 2X more in MS67 than PCGS did in ALL grades.
Valued Member
wif99's Avatar
United States
377 Posts
 Posted 10/07/2012  11:04 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wif99 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
NGC graded 2X more in MS67 than PCGS did in ALL grades.


That is exactly my point.
It must be pretty easy to get a MS67 from NGC.
They must be close to the same Population as ANACS
Pillar of the Community
smokeriderdon's Avatar
United States
3755 Posts
 Posted 10/07/2012  11:19 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add smokeriderdon to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Considering MS67 is kind of low for a modern coin, I would expect there to be a much higher proportion of 67s. An MS66 would be a coin I would not even send in to grade. Unless it were an error or something I wanted to get attributed. So to say they must be close to ANACS numbers, meaning it as an insult, is really ridiculous. Any and all grading companies should have high numbers of 66 and 67 coins. They really are not that good for moderns. I would not slab a modern under 68.

Oh, in this context I use modern to define coins from the 90s and up. Late year models.
Valued Member
United States
102 Posts
 Posted 10/07/2012  2:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LXShutter to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
That is exactly my point.


Actually, No. PCGS is losing market share. That is reflected in it's financial results and stock price. From the collector point of view this creates four risks:
1. Long term survival. You can't continue losing market share forever. At some point, you have to go out of business. If that happens, PCGS slabs will lose their value.
2. Low pop creates artificially high prices. Sure, there are only 19 of those coins graded MS67, but they have nearly a million brothers and sisters out there. If we extrapolate 13.5% to the total of these quarters sold, we get 128,000. Sure, the graded coins were probably cherrypicked, but even a tenth of that number is almost 13K. I bet that there are thousands of rolls that no one looked at yet. If people actually pay $300 for those things, a lot more will get graded and prices will plummet.
3. Low pop is not conducive to an active market. Scarcity helps coins that are truly rare. It hurts coins that are produced in the millions.
4. Low pop creates unreliable samples with high margin of error. With lots of coins graded, you can predict fairly accurately what number of coins will get what grade. With a low pop, you can't. That 13.5% could easily turn into 50%, if a lot more coins get graded.
Valued Member
United States
102 Posts
 Posted 10/07/2012  2:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LXShutter to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Considering MS67 is kind of low for a modern coin,


These are circulating quality coins. MS67 is fairly high for them. Since 1999, NGC graded 137K quarters, and only 12% of them got MS68 or higher.
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 10/07/2012  2:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
That is reflected in it's financial results and stock price


Theres really nothing about their stock price that indicates that at all. They have a very solid P/E Ratio and have even held their pre 08 price which is a lot more that can be said for a large percentage of stocks. The only real price drop was after a split which is what happens.

They may be losing a bit of the market to people chasing an easier 70 but they arent in danger of going out of business anytime soon.
Valued Member
United States
102 Posts
 Posted 10/07/2012  3:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LXShutter to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Theres really nothing about their stock price that indicates that at all.


Annual EPS $0.84
Annual Dividend $1.30

Sustainable? If not, the dividend will have to be cut. When that happens, the price will fall.

Current price $14.21
12 month price estimate $13.50

Not really a growth trajectory.
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 10/07/2012  4:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
May or may not be sustainable. Their profits margins are high on everything they do and they dont have the traditional high overhead expenses most companies do. Cutting the dividend doesn't always mean a long term price cut, some people will bail but others may come in seeing an oversold stock. Cutting the dividend may actually be preferred if that gets taxed like normal income in the coming year anyway, itll raise profit margins and should give the stock price a boost.

Their lastest financials arent that far enough off to say theyve taken an obvious hit and it wasnt more related to the economy. They still have a 100+ million market cap and have quite a ways to fall. Their stock price is still higher then it was a year ago and I cant find a price estimate from anywhere Id trust after looking.

Things can chance but so far theyve been surviving the current economy pretty well
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