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 Replies: 18 / Views: 3,471 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1228 Posts |
Poll Question
What do you think ? Quote:
He points out that the 2012 sets include the second rarest reverse proof silver eagle after (in theory) the 2011 coin He also points out Quote:
There may be lessons here for those who adamantly refuse to have their modern U.S. Mint coins graded, and who believe that first strike designations mean nothing. http://beforeitsnews.com/gold-and-p...2453230.htmlHappy Halloween 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2734 Posts |
Most educated collectors view "First Strike" as a bunch of baloney, but the lax quality control on the 2012-S Sets does grant some more provenance to the "PR-70"-graded 2012-S ASE's (First Strike or not). So, for 2012-S ASE's I would say "false" in the long term for First Strike PR-70's retaining a huge premium above non-First Strike PR-70's, but "true" regarding PR-70 coins in general having a substantial premium over PR-69 or raw. Edited by DNA
10/21/2012 8:47 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Definitely agree with DNA about the 70s.
As far as the first strike Id say if any set was going to have a substantial FS premium it would be this one just because theres so few of them and people always want the rarer item. Generally theres enough that the premium is small, but that may not be the case here
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
12817 Posts |
 with basebal21 and DNA. "First Strike" is a marketing gimmick made up by a 3rd party. Makes very little sense when you consider that the dies are changed out. It takes a market to buy into it and support it, which obviously (and sadly) there is a market. I wonder if the TPGs will start to assign hours/shipments to their designations to further generate demand? "1st strike, 1st 10AM UPS shpiment" |
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Valued Member
United States
492 Posts |
I only bought one set, and it's already opened so it doesn't matter to me one way or the other. To boot, I just received it last week, so couldn't get a First Strike designation anyway.
I've had a question that I've wanted to ask, but was afraid of garnering bitter invective from the dealers on this forum, but the low percentage of 70's coming back in this set makes me think the thing I'm worried about might become more prevalent, so here goes.
I have not sent any of my own coins in to be graded, and I would have to go through a local dealer to get anything graded. So if I take in my sets of 2011s or my one set of 2012 S eagles to a dealer and he bundles them up with some other submissions, do the graded coins get delivered to me at my house or do they go back to the dealer? My fear is that if they are sent to the dealer and they do come back PR70, what is to stop him from taking them 70's for himself and telling me "sorry chump, yours came back 69's?"
The low percentage of 70's coming back from the 2012 submissions makes me think that it may even tempt otherwise wholesome and normally virtuous dealers to look the other way in the integrity department for just this once and skim a little more off the top for themselves.
When you're submitting older coins with some amounts of wear, toning, etc. this scenario would be harder to play out because there might be enough distinguishing characteristics on a coin that you could tell if the one you get back is really yours or not. But with proof or reverse eagles there really isn't much distinction between one or another to be certain, especially if you sent in unopened boxes.
Of course, if they get sent back directly to the original submitter then this is all nothing to worry about. So, do I have anything to worry about?
Edited by TJB17
10/21/2012 10:03 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
I have not sent any of my own coins in to be graded, and I would have to go through a local dealer to get anything graded. So if I take in my set of 2011s or 2012 S eagles to a dealer and he bundles them up with some other submissions, do the graded coins get delivered to me at my house or do they go back to the dealer? My fear is that if they are sent to the dealer and they do come back PR70, what is to stop him from taking them 70's for himself and telling me "sorry chump, yours came back 69's?" It will all depend on the dealer and the deal you work out with him. If you stack them into a pile to get a bulk discount price the coins will go back to the dealer and they could give you a different set. If the dealer just sends in your coins they could still go back to him but I think theres a way you can put a different address for the return shipment. Basically the bottom line is if you have doubt about the dealer I wouldnt do it, I probably wouldnt do it with a dealer Id just met either. If you have a bunch you wanted to send it Id honestly probably just pay the 40 dollar membership fee and send it in yourself |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12817 Posts |
TJB17, I'd say send them in yourself unless you know your coin guy personally. What do you get by sending them with a load from your coin guy? Discounted grading rates for bulk submissions? I would suspect so, otherwise, why do it?
Either way, it goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway...caveat emptor.
How much would you save by bundling? You have to decide if those savings are enough to risk those fears you laid out.
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Valued Member
United States
492 Posts |
Thanks guys, I didn't realize that a PCGS membership is only about $40. If it saves me from getting one 70 "turned into" a 69 then it is well worth the cost. Since I have no close affiliation with any dealers yet it's probably my best bet.
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Valued Member
United States
102 Posts |
Quote:
if any set was going to have a substantial FS premium it would be this one just because theres so few of them and people always want the rarer item. If the mere "rarity" was the only driver of the price, than non-FS would command a premium over FS. The simple truth is that we don't even know what the non-FS PR70 sets even sell for, since there are so few of them. The recent trend has been that the overwhelming majority of graded coins are FS/ER. I'm thinking that even if FS commands some premium now (a dubious proposition), in the long term it'll evaporate. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
The recent trend has been that the overwhelming majority of graded coins are FS/ER Right but that most likely wont be the case for this set. The other thing too is that a good amount of people do value FS for whatever reason. So you have something that already commands a premium and then you have a very limited number, unlike other sets, and I could see there being a good/substantial premium for that. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2734 Posts |
I guess not too many of us who got our sets in July bothered to send them in. Oh, well, I still have my five 2011 Sets in OGP, what do I know?  |
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Valued Member
United States
102 Posts |
Quote:
Right but that most likely wont be the case for this set. On what basis? I don't have access to PCGS population report, but I do with NGC. For 2012 ASE released back in January, 85% were graded with ER. For the SF set it's 89%. To achieve parity, the number of submissions would have to almost double. You really expect that? Quote:
The other thing too is that a good amount of people do value FS for whatever reason. According to PCGS price guide, 2006 Reverse Proof ASE graded PR70 is valued at $525 with FS and $510 without. That's a difference of $15. So if you had one of these ungraded (eligible for FS) and sent it in today, you should expect to lose 17% on the FS fee. Now, I know the PCGS Price Guide is way overblown, but that just means that the FS premium is even less and the loss percentage is higher. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:On what basis? I don't have access to PCGS population report, but I do with NGC. For 2012 ASE released back in January, 85% were graded with ER. For the SF set it's 89%. To achieve parity, the number of submissions would have to almost double. You really expect that? These sets arent comparable to the other ASEs or even the NGC ones. PCGS only graded about 30 percent of the 2012 sets as a 70 while NGC stayed close to 50. For this set and this set only I actually do expect the total number of FS sets to be relatively low considering the low number and the amount of shipping delays/different ship dates. Only a little over 4400 sets have been graded a 70 so far according to their pop report. Almost all are FS but the sheer low number alone will keep the price up. Id bet money theres more then 4400 FS ASE collectors. Quote:
but that just means that the FS premium is even less and the loss percentage is higher. I dont collect FS by any means but on ebay and things they usually do go for more. Whether thats because some casual collectors think that makes them better or people like the Mercanti Signature on them or a combination I dont know. But the unopened FS boxes sell faster on ebay then just the unopened boxes. You most likely wont see the unopened FS boxes this time around Sending these sets into PCGS for a 70 was basically a guaranteed loss either way for the normal collector who didnt have a huge lot of them. FS or not without that 70 youve lost money. But if you just buy your 70s like me Ill get FS if its the same price for the resale. It very easily could end up being a small premium, but if there ever was a set where that would carry a noticeable premium on its own, this would be the set to do it |
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Valued Member
United States
102 Posts |
Quote:
These sets arent comparable to the other ASEs or even the NGC ones. PCGS only graded about 30 percent of the 2012 sets as a 70 while NGC stayed close to 50. More importantly, what is the percentage of total mintage that was submitted for grading? NGC alone has slabbed 10% of the mintage. PCGS took another 5%, or so. That is low compared with 2011 and 2006 sets. However, in those cases, you had to submit sight unseen in order to get the non-unique coins in the set identified as part of it. Here you don't. On top of that there are many collectors who have no interest in getting their coins graded. Some of them even participate here. Even with 1995 W proof ASE (where there is a huge upside to getting a 70 and a reasonable chance of getting it), only a small minority has been graded after all those years. Quote:I dont collect FS by any means but on ebay and things they usually do go for more. More than what? I've yet to see prices for non-FS SF sets. Also ebay prices ≠ values. For example, yesterday Teletrade had a couple of PR70 sets with starting prices of $450 and $475 ($517.50 and $546.25 with BP). Both went unsold. Quote:
Sending these sets into PCGS for a 70 was basically a guaranteed loss either way for the normal collector who didnt have a huge lot of them. FS or not without that 70 youve lost money. Let's do the math. If you bought 10 sets and send them to PCGS, your total cost would be around $2,200. If you got back 7 PR69 sets and sold them for $180 each plus 3 PR70 sets that sold for $450 each, you'd collect $2,610. IOW, after paying various fees, you'd break even or clear a small profit. AFAIK, 10 sets is not a "huge lot". Now, if you bough a whole bunch of PR70 sets when they were sold for $240-$250, you'd be able to sell them now at a tidy profit, but that window was relatively short. Quote:
but if there ever was a set where that would carry a noticeable premium on its own, this would be the set to do it My point is that so far, there is absolutely no evidence of that. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1770 Posts |
first strike what a joke - I was first in line at the movies the other day my ticket stub should have gotten first strike as well  |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
On top of that there are many collectors who have no interest in getting their coins graded. People certainly do like to collect differently, but if you dont like slabbed coins you dont have any affect on their sale prices. I do agree the submissions were affected by people being able to see them and taking a look and knowing there was no chance of a 70. Quote:
More than what? I've yet to see prices for non-FS SF sets. In general with other sets Quote:Also ebay prices ≠ values. For example, yesterday Teletrade had a couple of PR70 sets with starting prices of $450 and $475 ($517.50 and $546.25 with BP). Both went unsold. ebay gives more of a market value imo because with teletrade and heritage you have to pay a buyers fee which people take into account for their bids keeping the actual sale price artificially low. Quote:
IOW, after paying various fees, you'd break even or clear a small profit. Whats the point of all that to break even though? Quote:
My point is that so far, there is absolutely no evidence of that. Theres no evidence of that with this set because we wont know till it happens. There are indicators with other things that suggest if could very well happen. Only time will tell |
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Replies: 18 / Views: 3,471 |
Posted 10/21/2012 9:32 pm
