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 Replies: 9 / Views: 1,436 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1302 Posts |
http://www.coinweek.com/commemorati...coinvestors/CoinWeek just published what I hope is an interesting insight into First Coinvestors and their promotion of the Booker T. and Carver Washington half dollar promotion present in Swiatek's 1982 Encyclopedia. Some new details about FCI came to light via my interview with Anthony Swiatek, to whom I'm grateful. charles Edited by cc99999
02/18/2013 3:18 pm
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CCF Master Historian of USA Commemoratives
 United States
12255 Posts |
An interesting read! I always enjoy learning more of the "back story" of these historical coins.
I pulled my copy of the Breen/Swiatek Encyclopedia off the shelf to refresh my memory regarding Apfelbaum's "Investment Forecast" section. I see that he listed the value of a 1954 W/C PDS set in MS-65 at $170. This was almost double the "Bid" price the Coin Dealer Newsletter ("Greysheet") listed in 1981. I wonder if that was the price at which First Coinvestors, Inc. was selling the set?
If it was, and you purchased a set from them in 1981, you would have done very well despite the high initial price if you had held the coins to the end of the decade (assuming you received a true MS-65 set from them). Apfelbaum's prediction that you would "see your investment triple within a decade" came true in 1987 as market prices for the set exceeded $500. Of course, by "the end of the decade" in 1989 a W/C PDS set in MS-65 retailed for over $2,100 â€" an increase of over 1,100% (vs. $170)!
It should be noted, the commemorative market collapsed in 1990 and 1954 W/C set prices plummeted to just over $500 and then continued to fall, though more gradually, for the next 10+ years.
So, even though FCI's initial offering price for the W/C set was likely higher than the current market, its peak market price did "make good" on Apfelbaum's prediction!
Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1302 Posts |
commems- great analysis. but can we say that the commem market was artificially high? why did so many leave the series? or were many more coins "discovered" than the number of takers present?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3453 Posts |
Won't get to read through this until tonight - looking forward to it...
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CCF Master Historian of USA Commemoratives
United States
12255 Posts |
Quote:
...but can we say that the commem market was artificially high? why did so many leave the series? or were many more coins "discovered" than the number of takers present? I think it would be fair to say that nearly the entire US coin market for gem mint state coins was artificially high due to several factors, including "Wall Street" getting involved in the coin market and trying to trade gem graded/certified US coins as investment instruments like they were stocks/bonds and too many coin dealers becoming "investment advisors" and over hyping the ROI of "rare" coins. At that time, large quantities of MS-65 (or better) coins were being purchased by investors with no particular interest in coins; many collectors were soon squeezed out of the market due to the escalating prices. When the investors pulled their money due to failing returns, the artificially high prices they created dropped to levels that were more reflective of collector-based supply and demand. Said another way, there were enough commemorative coins available in the market to hype them as investments to a larger audience. Once that audience left, we returned to having more than enough coins to supply the relatively small group of commemorative collectors. Commemoratives were especially hard hit in the market collapse, but I don't believe it was caused by collectors leaving the series in droves as much as it was by the short-term investors leaving the series. Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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Valued Member
United States
386 Posts |
The investment advice continues. Mark Ferguson has advised buying MS66 commemoratives for investment purposes.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3453 Posts |
Very interesting article, not what I expected. I have a question for Charles and commems. Considering the fact that investors seem to have historical amnesia for any investment vehicle, could you see a time in the future that the commemorative market will become, in my opinion, a slave to investment vehicles again?
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CCF Master Historian of USA Commemoratives
United States
12255 Posts |
Quote:
...could you see a time in the future that the commemorative market will become, in my opinion, a slave to investment vehicles again? Interesting question. I do strongly believe that the classic series of commemorative coins will continue to experience a cyclical market and become "hotter" than it presently is. During such a period, there will definitely be those that promote the coins as investments - at least in grades of MS-65 and above. I'm less confident, however, that the market will ever be promoted to the extreme levels of the 1988-1990 period â€" I'd be very surprised if current prices were to rise by 300% to 1000% in an 18-24 month period like they did 20+ years ago. The coin market is definitely different than it was 20 or so years ago, collectors are different and the way they collect has changed. Today, I see more hype around certain modern issues vs. the older coins. Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3453 Posts |
So what you are telling me is I should buy my classic commemoratives NOW  JK but if this is a down time this really should be the time to continue to jump in. Once I get my Oregon (hopefully in April), I can set the next target in my sights. I would LOVE an Isabella. The only thing that would derail me would be if one of my last 4 3cn's became available. I already have the BTW and WC's. My hubby really likes those so I strategically purchased those first.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1302 Posts |
I love the booker and carvers too. I have several issues of the carver in MS-65+ and nearly all of the booker t's in MS-66/65+. I wrote the piece after being shocked that A.Swiatek's opinion on the booker/carver coins did not match at all the rhetoric in his book from 1981.
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Replies: 9 / Views: 1,436 |
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Posted 02/18/2013 3:17 pm
