1888-0 Hot Lips AU-58 CAC 12k. Too Expensive Or OK?

Ha! That says a lot for NGC.

Take oih82w8's advice, usdollar1977. Hot Lips coins aren't uncommon until high-AU grades, and at that point you start competing with folks who want the highest grades they possibly can. They have deep pockets, and prices frankly get a little inflated. Look in the XF-AU50 range if you want a nice one for a reasonable price - ANACS alone has slabbed more than 400 examples in that range.

I can't, in good conscience, recommend it. It's an NGC slab, and as such perceived in a lesser sense than a PCGS slab would. The jump in value from AU55 to AU58 is huge, and in my mind not supported by populations. This is not an uncommon variety, only a Conditional Rarity, and more are being found every day. I feel very strongly that this one is being artificially supported by demand; too many sellers are using them as investments and selling to other investors.

I doubt they'll ever be "cheap" in AU58 or better, but I wouldn't bet $12k on it remaining a five-figure coin in AU58 especially in an NGC slab. This isn't the coin I'd throw that much money at.

Here:

http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleN...1&lotNo=5995

NGC AU58, sold in January 2011 at the FUN Signature Auction (one where the whales come out to play), hammered at $4025.

Keep in mind, rarity concepts regarding Morgan varieties are in no way a static thing. These aren't Bust Halves or Early Silver where one might think that they've mostly been picked through. Populations change daily; varieties which were thought rare ten years ago are now known to be quite the opposite. Look at the VAMworld list of prior transactions for Hot Lips coins, and note their age. Since that time, someone has put together a close to complete grading set of Hot Lips coins....

Yes, this one will always be a Conditional Rarity over AU55. Enough people have been looking for them, for long enough, and the variety is so striking, that one may expect prices above AU50 to remain elevated. All the same, I don't believe that the Condition Census example has yet been found, nor the full population of AU+ examples. There still remain huge quantities of Morgans which have not been exposed to VAMmers. Demand will always be high, but I won't swear that supply will always be low.

I may be proven wrong in the long term. But I won't risk my own money on that idea, and that's all I can think of to say on the subject.