Effect Of Flood Of New NCLTs On The Value Of Older NCLTs?

I wish there was an option of no change. I think it won't change. For me I don't find it would increase or decrease any value. If a coin is in high demand then it will always have a premium whether a whole bunch of products are being minted and if it does not then it may stay at retail price or go down but that is just because there is little market for it.

I dont know how to answer the question...but what I think will happen is that all new NCLTS will over time lose their value. I guess that would go along with option 1.

I think that with SO MANY new coins and series being pumped out, serious collectors will just get annoyed and leave that market or invest a lot less money. How many more "limited edition" coins are they going to make? There will come a point where there will be 10 coins that have a mintage of 5000 and no one will care because the other 9 coins have the same "rare" mintage.

Also, the mint is pretty much overlapping old themes and series. The butterfly series was already done, same with the canadian wildlife series. How many more unique themes are left? Not many. Sure there are a lot of things Canada has to offer that can be placed on coins, but nothing spectacular or something that hasnt already been done before.

This "re-make" of old series and designs will attract new investors and collectors...but I think, overtime, older and more seasoned collectors will probably focus on OLD OLD NCLT or solely on flipping the exuberant amount of "limited edition" coins.

Seriously, there were SO many coins that had a mintage under 10,000, and even under 7,500 in 2012 that ts really hard to call the new NCLTS rare and unique.

First of all, I selected the option of - will have no effect.

I see you are comparing NEW RCM NCLT releases to value of OLD RCM NCLT, as opposed to comparing NEW RCM NCLT releases to the value of NEW RCM NCLT. I don't have a problem with this, in my (limited) experience people discussing the large increase of new releases are talking about how it will affect coins in the present, and the hobby/coins overall, as opposed to specifically how it will affect old nclt, so I find this interesting.

My issue with this survey (and I apologize, my economics background can really be a pain sometimes) what do you mean when you used the word 'value'? Did you really mean value? Or were you referring to price? Because there is a huge (well at least to me) difference between the two.

Okay, so the first option was Decrease - people will spend more on newer coins decreasing the demand for older coins.
I can see if the mint puts out a large number of new releases, and assuming there is a wide variety in those releases (the mint can release 6000 coins this year, but if they are all just 6000 different angles of looking at the same Alpaca... there won't be much excitement on the 6000th coin) there's a higher chance that all people into coins will find one they are interested in. This could result in more people buying coins, because more people are finding coins they like, or the same amount of people buying coins, but buying larger amounts (larger variety) of coins.

Now, will this decrease the demand for older coins? Well, say its the second scenario, where we have the same amount of people buying coins, but buying larger amounts. There's a few ways this could go. Assuming the amount of money the buyers have is fixed, the more they spend on new coins, the less money they have to spend on old coins (unless they adjust their budget, but I am not gettting into that). So you could argue that people will be spending less money on old nclt, because they'll have less money to spend. But, say these people doing the buying have all been coin collectors since (I'm just going to pick a year) 1950. Before the mint started to do 'big' releases. If these people were interested in a older nclt coin, what stopped them from buying it? Was it hard to find? The mint releasing 6000 coins this year is not going to make that coin any harder to find. Could they not justify spending the money at the time? Sure, its possible. If the mint released 0 coins this year, they still might not be able to justify spending that money. Does it make them want the coin any less? I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that if someone has been collecting coins for a long period of time, they probably have most of the old nclt they want already (unless it's hard to find, etc) and they will focus on new coins. It's my personal opinion that the increase in new coins will not decrease the demand for older ones, but for the sake of this discussion, let's say it does. Pretend the demand for older nclt dropping. We all know what is related to demand - supply! Now this is an odd circumstance because the total supply of the coins is fixed - the mint isn't making any more (yes, you could argue that total supply could be decreasing, because people could destroy coins, but economists have to make assumptions of they would never get anywhere). As that demand for old nclt drops, people are going to be wanting to get rid of their old nclt (yay! time for me to buy all that stuff I want!). So yes, if the demand for older nclt drops, the price of older nclt will drop. But I said PRICE, not VALUE.

Now say it's the first scenario, where we have more people buying these new coins. Some of these new people are new to coins completely. Say for example we have Jane, who buys her first coin - one of the $20 for $20 wolves. Up until seeing this coin she had no idea what nclt was, so her personal demand for older nclt was 0 (hard to want something if you don't know it exists). Now she could buy this one coin, and enjoy it, and decide that it's enough, and not give a second thought to older nclt - letting old nclt continue as is. Or she might decide she really likes this coin and wants more. More what? Does she want to purchase the next $20 for $20? Maybe she just like wolves, and will keep an eye out to see if the mint releases a new wolf coin. These two options will also have no bearing on the older nclt. If however, Jane decides she wants a complete $20 for $20 set, she now has to go out and purchase all of the previous coins in the series. Or, if Jane is less interested in the $20 for 20 and just into wolves, she might want to buy older nclt coins with wolves on them. Both of these situations will increase the demand for older nclt (of course holding all else constant). Which brings us to another of the poll options - "Increase - will result in more new collectors with increasing demand for older coins" Yes, if Jane and a bunch of new collectors are interested in older nclt, then yes, they will drive up that demand, and the price of older nclt will increase. Once again, price not value.

Now I'm new to nclt, and I've only collected things that have been released from the mint in the last two years. Is there older nclt I'm interested in? Definitely. Am I buying it? No. For me it's due to a couple of reasons. First it's because the coins are not available from the mint, so I look at dealers, and they don't have them, and then I have to go through other avenues, and I am not interested in investing that much time into it, in addition to wondering if I'm buying from a reputable place, dealing with taxes/fees/(shipping is absurd where I live). This is opposed to new nclt, where I can just log on to the mint's website, click add to cart, voila. Secondly, there are some coins I want that have a going rate significantly higher than their issue price, and I just can't justify the spending that kind of money. If everyone on the planet suddenly decided they hated nclt, and the price of all the nclt coins became zero, would I value the nclt any less than I currently do now? No. My kids can take a ugly piece of paper, draw stuff on it with crayons, and the resulting price of the drawing would be zero. Value wise, it's at the top of my list. Sorry for the ridiculously long post. Should have just ended it after 'I selected it will have no effect'

As a collector, DoobyRak, I hope you are right. Every year the prices of NCLT from the mint have been rising with the price of the metals. With the metal prices in decline, you would hope that retail side of the coins would follow suite. However, if you follow the gas companies lead, as the price at the barrel for oil increased, so did the price at the pump. Once the public had adjusted to the higher prices, that's it, that's all.. the barrel price dropped almost to 1/2 of it's maximum, and yet the pump price, though it came down, never came close to matching the pre-rise prices.

Now that we are used to spending $100 on a $20 silver coin with $25 worth of silver, IMHO, the prices will stay high on the retail side.

Price vs value.... it's all a game, and you have to draw your own lines, on it's worth. Quite frankly, it's been a fun ride, but my credit card has been retired.

Demand has picked up for NCLT coins that were not a sales success and ended up being a really low mintage... maybe it is the hockey playoffs, maybe it is a reaction to those who try to flip coins, but the 2009 lenticular 50-cent puck coins have suddenly jumped up in value on ebay.

I bought my Canucks coin 2 months ago for $45, another one recently sold for $120 and they are now listed at $90 on ebay...