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 Replies: 59 / Views: 5,936 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2077 Posts |
Every year that silver prices increased over inflation, it caused a greater percentage of prices of common silver coin series to become effectively the same. After years of these increases, many of the minor differences in value basically washed away. Think of it like a mountain range being flooded. The peaks are still there, but every year more valleys become hidden. So my question is, what happens on the way back down? Will coins that used to have slightly higher value continue to do so once their numismatic value exceeds the silver value? Will it be slightly higher than it was pre rise? Will prices just stay elevated until sales slow down and cause them to fall? I know that when prices shot up, dealers did not hesitate on raising prices for coins that they bought earlier on low silver prices. I'm sure that rationale won't work in reverse.
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Moderator
 United States
188001 Posts |
Price differences will probably settle back to where they were. The value becomes numismatic again; rarity and demand have the normal affect without being washed out by bullion value.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
With the run up in silver we saw a lot of people enter the bullion market and I think its reasonable to assume that some of them got interested in numismatics because of it so I'm not sure if well see things all the way back to where they were before, but I agree they should drop
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Moderator
United States
188001 Posts |
True. There is also the possibility that a significant percentage of the common dates have been melted and are not so common now.
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Rest in Peace
United States
4078 Posts |
Interesting points from well known members here at CCF. Look at their post numbers# 800+ through 17,608.
Let me see? Should I believe their knowledge? Nobody is perfect but, CCF people know their stuff!
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
There is also the possibility that a significant percentage of the common dates have been melted and are not so common now. Thats the wild card to me. Itll take awhile to see how much was lost during the run the up. I have a bad feeling morgans arent going to get significantly cheaper though I hope they do. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3755 Posts |
I do not see Morgans dropping a lot. Simple fact is they were under valued to start IMO. The increase in silver simply forced the "common" dates (I am not a big fan of calling coins 100 or more years old common) to gain some value they deserved to have.
As mentioned, with the influx of collectors the bullion market created and the number of coins likely melted, I think a retail value of 29 bucks or so average circulated Morgans is not unreasonable.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
899 Posts |
I think this will be an interesting thread to follow over the next few months. There are even some recent coins that will be challenged to hold their numistic value... I am thinking the silver proofs sets - the silver quarters and many of the recent commemorative coins. The older coins will sort themselves back to rarity and demand. The newer coins may not have the same fate.
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Valued Member
United States
196 Posts |
Who now decides what coins were melted in quantity and adjusts a specific coins rarity? I am sure we can agree that a large number of Morgans were melted which will ultimately make the remaining ones more rare. Wonder how long those numbers will take to cycle through.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5205 Posts |
Talked to a coin dealer who is a member of the local coin club and he said no one melted coins this time around like they did during the 1980's boom.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2734 Posts |
Quote:
jbuck: There is also the possibility that a significant percentage of the common dates have been melted and are not so common now. The market still hasn't accounted for the meltdowns of 1980, really. Quote:
jack jeckel: Talked to a coin dealer who is a member of the local coin club and he said no one melted coins this time around like they did during the 1980's boom. Same deal here, they just get cleaned out of junk silver during the big price changes (up or down!) |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2764 Posts |
When silver run up, all those 90% silver coins just got traded 'as-is' (another form of bullion at 90%, not 99.99%).... there are no need to melt these 90% coins down and refine them to become .999 or .9999 silver bullion.
I can only see the scenario when these 90% coins being melt down is when there's a shortage in bullion blank from miners (ie: industrial demand exceed mining supply).
The silver run up this time just brought out more silver coins sitting in closets for years. There are no actual physical silver shortage because of industrial usage; the shortage is in the supply need to satisfy 'investor' demand..... these people don't "use up" the silver like industrial/military application.... so when there's an actual need/squeeze for physical supply, these silver reserve (disperse among the population and investment storage facility) will become available.
Getting back to the question. "Common" coins will retain/increase in premium (if you look at the the percentage of premium vs. silver value) of these coin, there are some increase. For example: $2 premium for a Barber Half when spot is at $30 look cheap, compare to the same $2 premium for the same coin when spot is at $20. Another example: At the high of silver price, premium for common circulated morgan was about $3-$4 over spot ($27-$28 while melt was around $24); what about now?
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Moderator
United States
188001 Posts |
Quote:
The market still hasn't accounted for the meltdowns of 1980, really. True. The market is based on what is available, or at least perceived as available. If a large number of a common date coins are melted, but there appears to be enough to supply the demand, then the price will retreat with the melt premium. |
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Valued Member
United States
140 Posts |
That would explain why I have not seen a Morgan dollar for less than $30.00 at least at local coin shops and flea markets in North & South Carolina. I agree with comment above. A coin that old and rare could carry a $30.00 premium after all who really does not appreciate a good Morgan dollar for its beauty and history. |
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Valued Member
United States
140 Posts |
I am trying to figure what is a better buy lets say a 2012 ASE for $28.00 due to Silver Value, or a nice circulated 1878 Morgan dollar for $30.00. Yes the ASE has more Silver but I still don't see how that coin could be as valuable or so near cost of a Morgan. This is my struggle every month with my $150.00 a month coin budget. Oh what to buy and what book should I feel up first!! :) |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:I am trying to figure what is a better buy lets say a 2012 ASE for $28.00 due to Silver Value, or a nice circulated 1878 Morgan dollar for $30.00. Assuming you dont love one over the other the Morgans are the better buy to me. They arent made anymore, and their price is less affected by silver movement. Bullion demand comes and goes with the flow of the silver spot price but morgans are always appreciated. |
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Replies: 59 / Views: 5,936 |
Posted 06/27/2013 12:38 am
