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 Replies: 16 / Views: 3,574 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2311 Posts |
I found this on google http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/...&whichpage=3The user Art spoken about what silver and gold will be in the next two years. Quote:
7/20/2010 - Art wrote:I see the biggest buying opportunity in gold and silver and if it keeps going down the opportunity even gets bigger.
I see within the next 5 years, probably sooner. Gold at $4000 to $5000 at least $3000 and Silver over $100 a ounce.
Write that down and see if this old man is right. I have been studying this for over a year now and all factors point towards this happening. What's funny is that gold and silver never jumped high. So does this mean gold will never hit crazy prices?  |
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Moderator
 United States
188213 Posts |
Let's move this to the PM forum and see what we get.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1200 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
The problem with price targets is no one really knows an exact price target hence why rather than emphasize price targets one should look for trends.
Trends are very powerful, when the momentum gathers, it can carry a price much farther than anyone expects. Many trends can last for years and in between carry a TON of back filling.
Therefore to be objective a thread such as mine offers the best insight. I dont attempt price targets because I know I will be WRONG. However, when it comes to spotting a trend and finding them, I can manage coming very close. Which btw, part of the success to trading trends is I dont put any sort of exact price target. In fact in all my trades, I solely shoot to get confirmation of properly entering a trend, having an exit should I be wrong and how to manage to stay in the trend.
The reason Art was wrong is because he filled to identify the subtle changes and clues in the uptrend. One reason he was wrong was failing to identify the retracements as gold and silver fell in price from their yearly highs. a successive list of lower highs and lower lows which brings us to were we are today.
That is why currently with all authority and certainty I can say gold and silver are still stuck in downtrends, and at BEST are broken assets. In time, this back and forth will be broken. At this point, based on all the reactions for gold and silver, another leg lower looks like the more probable scenario. As anyone can see, NOTHING helps gold or silver to get a sustainable move to break out of this downtrend.
Finally, at this point, one should completely STOP thinking about higher prices. Prices are stuck in a downtrend. The more it hangs here, the harder it will be for gold and silver to overcome all these price levels above it. In fact, before you can even start to DREAM about higher prices, you have to see the downtrend be broken.
To sum it up,,, we are no where near breaking the downtrend. Remember, trends and momentum are very strong and they work in both directions. After many great years of running higher, now the downtrend is the prevailing force.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
2311 Posts |
@Freddy, nice! Thanks for sharing. @Jbuck, I wasn't sure at all where to post this.  @Yup, I once thought gold and silver would go down a lot. Now remember back in like 2008 when gold was 500 and silver was about 8? I thought someday the prices would drop. But silver jumped higher and higher to 40. Then took a sharp drop to 20. So I think it's at the normal price for both metals. I wasn't buying silver coins once silver went over 12. I now started buying silver without caring what happens. |
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Moderator
United States
188213 Posts |
No problem. I knew it would get some responses here (as have all the others like it). Fat Freddy summed it up very well, "The one common denominator between all of these threads is that they're all speculative and nobody knows with any certainty just what the future holds."Can gold and silver hit crazy prices? Sure. Will they? |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2311 Posts |
I think their is just too much gold and silver being held by people.
For example, lets say you woke up one morning and saw Gold at 3000 with silver at 80.
Wouldn't you sell it right away? So therefore the market would be flooded so much that the
price would probably drop to like 500 for gold and 8 for silver.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1200 Posts |
That would be logical and you'd think that'd be what would happen, but...
Demand for physical Au & Ag has been running high while prices hang around in the vicinity of a 3-year low. It seems that spot is unimpressed by demand for physical product.
With that being the case, I have to wonder if a major skyrocketing of price (unlikely though that seems) being followed by stackers offloading major quantities of physical PM's
coupled with a drop in physical demand would have any effect on spot either.
The progress of spot prices in the last year seems to have been very little influenced by physical demand. It seems that the classic "supply and demand" model hasn't been
applicable to PM spots for over a year now.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
919 Posts |
I was not here in 2008 so all I ask for is one shot at $500 gold and $8 silver. I will run out and buy a 7070 Gold page that day and fill it with each type. To think that in 2001 $20 gold pieces were selling for $350 in MS63 condition amazes me. I would buy a roll at that price and put them away for the grandkids.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
The progress of spot prices in the last year seems to have been very little influenced by physical demand. It seems that the classic "supply and demand" model hasn't been
applicable to PM spots for over a year now. Probably longer than that. Considering silver got up 50 and sat in the 30/40s for a while you would think it would be hard to find something that had increased in price more tha 4 times. Even then it may have been hard to find low premium stuff or order massives quantities but it didnt take a lot of effort to find stuff for a couple bucks over spot. If it was simply supply and demand there would have been an increase but not to that extent. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
one of the SILLIEST arguments going around is how since there is a ton of physical demand that spot prices dont reflect whats really going on.
However as anyone who is logical can see, NOTHING is budging PM prices. Why?
because there is AMPLE supply over demand for gold and silver.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2311 Posts |
But can't gold and silver be used over and over again? What are the metals being used for that's causing a demand?
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Moderator
United States
188213 Posts |
Quote:
But can't gold and silver be used over and over again? Yes, assuming we are done with whatever it was being used for. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5850 Posts |
Quote:
I was not here in 2008 so all I ask for is one shot at $500 gold and $8 silver. I will run out and buy a 7070 Gold page that day and fill it with each type. Yeah, good luck with that. You might be able to get bullion at great prices, but my experience is that as soon as spot value dips the premiums on numismatic silver and gold skyrockets to compensate. It may eventually go back down, but by then the spot price will likely have risen again... |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Moderator
Australia
16817 Posts |
Spot price has remarkably little to do with availability of physical silver at that price. Especially when the price falls. No bullion dealer who paid $30 an ounce for silver is going to sell that same silver to customers for $20, just because the price falls. Instead, they'll hold it, until the price comes up again or until they have to pay the bills and can't hold it any longer.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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Replies: 16 / Views: 3,574 |
Posted 10/09/2013 7:34 pm
