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 Replies: 25 / Views: 3,918 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1903 Posts |
Do slabbed common dates, even low MS grades always trade for spot+$250 or do they stay at the $1450-1500 range regardless of gold prices? Am trying to learn this market and frankly I am surprised to see how close to spot these coins are. Edited by unholyroller
11/06/2013 12:45 am
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
In very broad average terms over a long period,
I would think that the premium would be linked to the inflation rate, and the gold to the current spot price, whatever that may be.
a):That is the general rule I apply to all coins that have significant bullion value, be they numismatic or bullion items. b):Of course, I also consult current total market prices as well.
Rule 'a' is very useful, if rule 'b' is not available, for any reason.
I do not apply this rule to very rare gold, and almost all numismatic silver and bronze coins. Generally, rule 'b' only applies, but if my latest numismatic market values are getting old, I apply an inflation rate anyway.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
Quote:
Do slabbed common dates, even low MS grades always trade for spot+$250 or do they stay at the $1450-1500 range regardless of gold prices? Absolutely not. Premiums are way, way down over the past two years. In fact, just a few years ago when gold was much lower in price (< $1,000/oz) generic gold was more expensive in MS grades than it is now with $1300 gold! There is no range "they stay at". The market dicates where they trade and the market now says low MS generic gold trades at a very low premium to melt value. |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1903 Posts |
So BH...are you stating that right now, MS common gold is seeing a "buyers market"? Or do you feel that the values of MS commons have been permanently damaged for at least the foreseeable future?
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Valued Member
United States
368 Posts |
IMO, MS common date gold is a Buyer's Market currently....I'd expect if gold drops, for MS common date gold to remain steady where it's at. If gold rises, MS common date gold will rise accordingly. I don't think we'll ever see a significant drop in MS common gold value.
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Valued Member
United States
461 Posts |
The value of these coins is directly tied to their bullion value. When I first started collecting in the early 2000's Double eagles sold for $300 in low MS grades. If gold were to plummet to $500 and ounce there is is no way these would hold a premium at $1500, they'd likely drop to $700-800. The question is will gold be that low again, I doubt it but I think it has a better chance that say silver sinking to historic lows because of the electronic demand on silver. Gold is down $400 this year alone and in June was down $550. To me this is a good time to buy because of how low it is, if I were a seller I would hang on and hope for another upswing.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4337 Posts |
common date pre-33 MS gold already slabbed is easily traceable for market history through auction archives and I highly recommend this research as a means to answer your own question and truly familiarize yourself with the market trends for top tier slabs over the past several years
that having been said, if you're keen on investment, the advice given to me on this forum has paid some serious dividends:
1 - learn how to spot cleaned versus not cleaned raw pre-33 eagles be it quarter, half or whole
2 - buy raw and send for grading
it's a bit like "playing a scratch off lotto ticket" as it was once described to me but well worth the education. You can wind up buying a half eagle for $425 raw and have is slab at a mid level MS and wind up with a $700 coin. End up in a top MS grade and you might have a $1200 coin. Buying already slabbed is a smaller gain, if any, over the course of time and a long term at that.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
Quote:
So BH...are you stating that right now, MS common gold is seeing a "buyers market"? Or do you feel that the values of MS commons have been permanently damaged for at least the foreseeable future? It's a buyer's market based on $1,000+ gold, that's for sure. As noted above, if gold were to plummet 50% then today's prices would seem high. As far as permanent damage? Nothing is permanent and I would expect choice MS to return to $2,000+ in the future. It might take $1700 gold to get there though. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1903 Posts |
So BH...then based on your commentary and others...you do indeed then agree that MS common gold double eagles see roughly a $300 premium over melt on a consistent basis. To summarize everyone's comments... $500 gold melt sees $700-800 double eagles ( per sirdizzy ) $1275 gold melt sees $1450-$1550 double eagles ( as seen today on ebay) $1650 gold melt sees $2000 double eagles ( per BH ) This also seems to hold water from another of Sirdizzy's comments in that he was buying Double Eagles in the early 2000's for $300. Back then gold was averaging about $275 an ounce, so the numismatic premium was even in place then (when gold per ounce was less than the $300 premium, the premium became the street value of the coin.) Edited by unholyroller
11/06/2013 6:35 pm
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Valued Member
United States
461 Posts |
Yea when the double eagles sold for $300 gold prices were $250-275 and the Eagles sold for $300-350 I was doing the gold page of the 7070 at the time. So yea even at historic lows they held a premium. I think you will always see a premium, I wasn't buying when gold was $500 so I am speculating on the premium there, I do remember the premium and the costs when the prices were at historic lows though. I miss being able to pick up a 2 1/2 Indian for like $125-150. The Indians are my favorite gold coin.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
A couple more (generalized) comments about generic MS double eagles: 1) Saints have a lower premium than Libs. 2) This involves pieces certified as Mint State by the top two TPG (PCGS & NGC). 3) Don't expect a $300 premium over melt to hold. For example, when gold was $500 in 2006 MS63 Saints were selling for around $1500. The same price as today with $1300 gold. Again, we're talking about MS certified pieces. YMMV |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1748 Posts |
IMO the premium above spot on MS common date $20's is high right now. Been quite while since I added a double eagle to the collection.
Is your purpose to start a double eagle numismatic collection or do you simply want to invest in gold? If you simply want to invest in gold, I would buy 1 oz American eagles instead. Much less premium and you don't have to worry about learning how to select desirable double eagles over less desired ones. Patina is very important to numismatic double eagle collectors.
Edited by DoubleEagle20
11/06/2013 10:57 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1903 Posts |
My intent is to collect pre-33 double eagles for the numismatic aspect, but I also don't want the rug pulled out from underneath me regarding their value because of intrinsic vs. numismatic value. Coins containing precious metals are one of the very few collectibles that have two independent components which determine their ultimate value. It makes for shaky ground that, well, frankly is why I am doing my diligence before I leap into this realm. At $1500 a throw...I don't take that sort of expenditure lightly.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1748 Posts |
I would recommend that you look at double eagles that will hold their value, numismatically speaking. Carson City double eagles or other rarer dates and mints immediately pop to mind. Make sure you aim for nice clean looking coins with a rich patina to them. From my experience, I tend to find those more often in PCGS holders, followed by NGC. The common date MS double eagles tend to be championed more by the investment community and of course ride that respective "roller coaster".
For example, a nice looking 1852-O is going to hold its value much, much more than a common date 1928 when gold becomes volatile.
You are correct on your observation of the bimodal aspects of the double eagle market, IMO the first realization a collector needs for this series.
How I handled that uncertainly is I made my collection a mix of rarer dates and common MS doubles. I have a really nice XF 1852-O and little over half of the dates issued by Carson City. Of course, then I got REALLY picky when it came to the common dates...i.e orange peel color...the "European" look as they call it. Most of these coins got their patina from sitting in bags or such in European vaults.
The one that I would hold up as as monument to my pickiness is my 1916-S. Those coins are really hard to find in a lustrous, nicely toned state. Took me 4 years to find one I liked.
Edited by DoubleEagle20
11/07/2013 12:47 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4337 Posts |
You're buying coins where intrinsically speaking, there have been major swings in that value which obviously affect the overall value. If you buy at $1500 with gold at $1300 you're relying heavily on the intrinsic versus numismatic. Much older gold may not follow that trend but you've got to compare the charts to make that determination. Ex: 10 years ago a common date 1895 liberty head twenty dollar PCGS MS 63 were avg. $1,050. Presently the avg. is $1800. An 80% swing in numismatic value based against a 300% intrinsic swing. Measure that against a ST. G is all I'm saying
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Valued Member
United States
291 Posts |
I don't have an answer for LOW MS grade common Saints, but I'd be curious to kow everyone's thoughts and analysis as it relates to MID MS grade, both common and not so common (yet not rare), date Saints.
By MID MS grade I mean: MS64 and MS65.
By common I mean: 1908 (no motto), 1922, 1923D or P, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927 and 1928 (all Philadelphia).
By not so common (yet not rare) date I mean: 1907, 1908 motto, 1909S, 1910D, 1911D, 1912, 1913D, 1914D or S, 1915S, 1916S and 1920P.
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Replies: 25 / Views: 3,918 |
Posted 11/06/2013 03:29 am
