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Why Were Uncirculated Coins So Overvalued In The 80s/90s?

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machine20's Avatar
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 Posted 03/04/2014  12:08 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add machine20 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Many of the prices for Morgans/Peaces/Walking Libs/Franklins among others have come down since then. Why?
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
United States
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 Posted 03/04/2014  12:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A "perfect market." Wall Street money incoming, then-new PCGS and NGC to create an easy sight-unseen trading atmosphere, a guy named Iraj Sayah spending millions accumulating coins (he later got busted in the Goddard Rarities scandal/lawsuits/prosecution, so you know where those coins went).Heady days for numismatics, but an unsustainable bubble. It had actually burst by the 1990's.
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machine20's Avatar
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 Posted 03/04/2014  12:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add machine20 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I saw a book from 1986 at my campus library that was meant to give advice on which coins to buy in order to make good investments. It was one of the most ridiculous books I've ever gone through. For ever denomination, the advice was, "sell your ms60/63 coins and buy ms65", because no "real" collector would ever settle for an average uncirculated coin. Looking back, I think it was pretty lousy advice.
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machine20's Avatar
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 Posted 03/04/2014  12:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add machine20 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think it may have been someone with PCGS who wrote the book in an effort to keep the demand for those better uncirculated coins high
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
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 Posted 03/04/2014  12:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I see nothing but wisdom in that advice. Don't buy a 61 when you can afford a 63, and don't touch a 63 when a 65 is within reach. As the value goes up, so does the coin's sellability in a difficult market. It's the low end that gets abandoned first when times get rough, unless (as we discussed above) the market at that grade is artificially-propped by transient demand.
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dsfreeworld's Avatar
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 Posted 03/04/2014  12:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dsfreeworld to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
absolute wisdom. I wish I could rewind a couple of years and have adhered to it quicker. Another good piece of advice is that common dates are dead money and it really is the rarities that hold value in the absolute highest grade you can find them in. Build your cash reserves, buy the rare dates in the scarce grades and you'll build a serious collection.
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Lex1705's Avatar
Germany
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 Posted 03/04/2014  12:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Lex1705 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Internet in every home has brought a lot of new collectors:)
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SsuperDdave's Avatar
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 Posted 03/04/2014  1:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Never buy coins purely for investment, but never forget you won't own them forever.
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Conder101's Avatar
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 Posted 03/04/2014  3:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
For ever denomination, the advice was, "sell your ms60/63 coins and buy ms65", because no "real" collector would ever settle for an average uncirculated coin. Looking back, I think it was pretty lousy advice.

Same advise you hear today, only today they are saying don't settle for 65's or 67's, sell them and buy 69's and 70's.

One reason why everyone was so sure the Wall Street money would come flooding into coins was because Solomon Brothers had been publishing a claim that rare coins had been going up on an annual percentage better than just about anything else, and that the new advent of the slabbing services meant that coins were now fungible!

Yes that is something that is never talked about any more, that slabbing would make coins fungible. What does that mean? Something is fungible if one of them is interchangeable with any other one of the same item. Any share of GM common stock is like any other share and it doesn't matter which share you own. One oz of gold is like any other oz. And in theory one of the advantages of slabbing was that it would make it possible for people who didn't have a lot of numismatic knowlede to be able to buy and sell coins sight unseen because say any MS-65 1890 Morgan dollar was just like any other MS-65 1890 Morgan. So if you bought one it didn't matter which one you got. (Something you need to understand, sight unseen does NOT mean that you are buying something you haven't seen and if you don't like it you can send it back. Sight unseen means if you buy a PCGS MS-65 1890 Morgan, when it arrives if it is in a Morgan dollar in a PCGS slab labeled MS-65 it is YOURS, no returns, exchanges, or refunds. It doesn't matter if it is overgraded, scratched, ugly toned etc, it is yours period.) An the American Numismatic Exchange ANE was set up just for such sight unseen trading.

And of course it failed, because even with slabbing coins are NOT fungible and one MS-65 1890 Morgan is NOT like any other MS-65 1890 Morgan. Coin dealers knew this and knowing they could get stuck with some pretty low quality coins on the ANE they adjusted their bids accordingly. Bids on the ANE eventually dropped to about a quarter of those on the Graysheet.
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barryg's Avatar
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 Posted 03/04/2014  4:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think if you're buying coins purely (or primarily) as investments, you want to focus on rarity. And rarity usually includes condition in the sense that old coins in mint condition are much harder to find than those in circulated condition. But condition by itself should not determine whether a coin is a good investment or not. And this is especially true (in my opinion) with regard to modern coins for which there are millions of examples in MS65+ condition. I don't care if you have a shield penny or an ASE or a state park quarter in MS70 -- there are just way too many "perfect" examples out there for them to be considered rare.

The hard part for me is that the coins that are truly rare and in truly nice condition (and which would, in my opinion, make the best long-term investments) are already way too expensive for me to purchase. I simply cannot justify plopping down $10K on a single coin right now. And I really wouldn't want to blow my entire yearly coin budget on a single coin anyway, since then the rest of the year would be very boring.

My plans going forward is to try and find coins that are rare enough to be valuable even in lesser condition, and then try to find examples that I can afford. I doubt any will be in MS67 or above. But hopefully they will at least be MS62 or so.
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