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 Replies: 19 / Views: 3,113 |
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Pillar of the Community
Israel
2420 Posts |
Consider one of the classic coin series (Barber/Seated Liberty/Capped Bust) [dime / quarter / half]. While there are sources online which gives an estimated value of each coin throughout the year, I didn't find anything about the availability of the coins. You could consider availability as the frequency in which it appears in public auction/flee markets or any other definition which makes sense (availability in ebay for example, although it's interesting can only answer the question for the last decade or so). So my question is: Do classic coins become less available in the market over the years? (which could be a result of hoarding / coins that gets ruined/lost / etc.). Or do they become more available at some point (say when the last people who lived to use them as currency pass away and the younger generations cares less about them)? |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2373 Posts |
Quote:
Or do they become more available at some point (say when the last people who lived to use them as currency pass away and the younger generations cares less about them)?
We are approaching the end of that cycle for the classics. The availability is not always mintage specific but the quality(no problems) of the coins available seems to be evident. I believe the collectors and hoarders take the better coins out of availability. For example, take a look at a semi or key date Indian Head cent. Page after page of entries but each page might have two problem free coins. It is not likely that the only ones left are problem coins. The better ones are in collections or strong hands. nlp |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5825 Posts |
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Do classic coins become less available in the market over the years? The key phrase in your question is " in the market". The answer as I understand it is " sometimes" (how's that for waffling). Right now the answer appears to be " yes". Collectors are buying coins and putting them in their collections. There they sit for years which makes them unavailable to the market. Currently dealers are having a difficult time getting good stock. Some time down the line (generally measured in double-digit years) something will cause collectors to sell off their collection. Then the answer will lean towards " no". Could be something like a collector dying and the heirs selling the collection off; but that sporadic. Or a collector needing money for bills; probably happens more often. But a hobby-wide sell-off is unusual. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4337 Posts |
To answer your question, I think, yes, they do become less available in problem free examples or truly worthy CAC examples. A savvy collector, with enough financial backing, will scoop up the specific series of coins you've mentioned and make them less available on the market.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1536 Posts |
Depends on what is and what time of the year it is. Some stuff is in demand while others not so much. For instance, I have a lower grade 1917-S obverse Walker, people want it for melt. Others they snag up at list price or a slight discount. It just depends on the demand. Some collectors are more price conscious than others. One thing though is that forums like this one has successfully past coin collecting interest to the next generation. I sell lower cost coins to beginner collectors surprisingly many of those are women, a departure from the typical collector of the past. Of course there are coins that I keep and are no longer available to anyone like full "LIBERTY" Barbers in any condition.
Edited by buddy16cat
06/23/2014 6:49 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1584 Posts |
It's inevitable. Slowly but surely.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4416 Posts |
Having attended hundreds of shows over the years, I've witnessed a continually declining flow of higher grade type coins. This is especially true for raw ones. A large percentage of the higher grade classic coins seem to now reside in slabs and are traded more so by investors, methinks. That's not to say that investors are not collectors. I do believe that investment tends to drive the higher grade material into auction houses and away from the reach of average collectors.
Then too, type collecting seems to be a natural progression for collectors who previously filled date sets. Look at the popularity of Dansco's 7070 album. The many books out there on coin varieties and explosion of shared knowledge on the internet is making collectors more studious and vigilant in pursuing better numismatic material. It stands to reason then that there is more demand and competition to obtain desirable, classic coins. One can easily buy complete sets of modern coins, touted as investments. The true investments are classic coins that are not often seen ...
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Valued Member
United States
450 Posts |
One thing I have noticed is that a lot of collectors from the 1960s are passing and their collections are being sold by their heirs.
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Pillar of the Community
 Israel
2420 Posts |
noD, I'm not sure I agree. You have examples (see ancient Roman coins for example) of series that are available thousands of years after being minted, and for cheap. Why are the US classic coins different?
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
856 Posts |
Well, if anyone has followed my posts they'll know US classics aren't my field. But I'd suggest not. It might seem that's the case, but I suspect that's partly due to 'early collector mentality'. When we start collecting there are many gaps and we can pick up coins quite easily and frequently on places like ebay. Like some here, my fellow collectors and I have commented on how little decent material there is about today. But the coin market is cyclical. And its a long cycle by comparison with ebay. So as collections fill it becomes more of a challenge to find the remaining coins. Not because there are fewer, just that there have never been that many and if they are all in collections ... well, we just have to wait. Tomorrow, as they say, is another day! For example, in the British series, when Richard Lockett's collection was sold, there were so many coins, it took thirteen auctions over the years 1955-61. John Brooker's collection consisted of over 1300 coins. The coins were there. But not available to other collectors until the collections were sold. And when they were sold it probably flattened the market for years. So I would suggest the opposite - that there are more coins available than ever - essentially down to metal detecting. OK, may of those will be poorer quality. But every now and then a find (Saddle Ridge anyone?) will mean a sudden abundance of material for collectors. Yes, in the US in particular, people are hoarding coins not for a collection but for the precious metal. Some of those will end up in melt. But generally the better coins only become unavailable when acquired by a museum. What does happen is that many collectors have to shift from sites like ebay and local coin shops to auction houses and international dealers. Because if you want an ex Eric Newman collection coin, well, that will be where you will find it. It becomes more of a challenge to find the coins you want. I myself buy less than half a dozen (one year it was just two) coins for my collection! A combination of wanting coins that have always been scarce and being fussier about the grades I will accept. But does that mean the coins I want are less abundant? Probably not IMHO. Edited by Tom Goodheart
06/24/2014 06:38 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1959 Posts |
I too have noticed the decline in quality examples of most classic coins over the last 15 years. I attribute this to a broadening of the collector base. Basically, more people after a finite number of coins means higher demand and less availability. The collector base has broadened for a couple reasons. The internet is one. All of the sudden, a rancher in the middle of Wyoming can have access to coins from his house. Also, a new generation of collectors is emerging before the old generation has kicked the bucket. Those 12 to 15 year old kids that began collecting the Statehood Quarters are now 27-30. Less coins available? I would say yes to that also, but not enough to affect the market much if any. Say a serious collectors house burned down. He kept his coins in the closet in albums and ziplock bags. Those coins are lost forever. Someone inherits their dad's coins and cleans them all to make the nice and shinney. Those coins are not gone, but forever cleaned. Scenarios like this play out on a continual basis eating away at the number and quality of available coins. Heck, my wife accidentally threw away a Seated Liberty quarter that belonged to my son about a year ago. It was a nice one. Luckily he noticed he couldn't find it and we began a full fledged shakedown of the entire house and "interrogated" everyone in the house and eventually began a search through the trash where, low and behold, there it was! If we hadn't discovered it, to the landfill it would have gone. Lost forever. Trust me, no one would have found it in the quarry/landfill near our town. Edited by jpbone
06/24/2014 8:13 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1584 Posts |
supdog, great topic. IMO, it's the same with any man made thing, not only coins. Slowly is the key. Lost, buried, damaged, melted, corroded, thrown down a rat hole, made into jewelry, whatever. I may be putting too fine (or too dull) a point on it, but slowly, in time, it is inevitable.
Edited by noD
06/24/2014 8:41 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3843 Posts |
I definitely believe that the numberss of original problem free coins in certain earlier classic series is declining. Over the years coins get cleaned by novices and non-collectors that may have inherited collections or collections are improperly stored further limiting supply. Furthermore opportunistic dealers and collectors are constantly trying to "improve" the appearance of coins by cleaning, dipping, or otherwise altering them in the hope of making a quick profit so the number of coins with original surfaces declines. I wonder how many collections were damaged/destroyed in Sandy or Katrina, I suspect a significant number. U.S. Population in 1800: 5,236,631 1830: 12,866,020 1860: 31,443,321 1890: 62,979,766 Those population numbers for the U.S. in the earlier half of the 19th century are very small thus meaning less coinage during that period. Edited by Joe2007
06/24/2014 10:59 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Israel
2420 Posts |
noD/jpbone - While I obviously agree that the number of coins "in existence" are a monotone decreasing function, it doesn't mean they are observably less available (consider the Roman coins I've mentioned as example). True - the collector base have increased when coins became available online, but there's a definite attraction for modern coins within younger collectors. As the years pass, more modern coins are minted, looking better and shinier than ever before, which means the percentage of investment going into classics is decreasing per collector, even if there are more collectors out there. As opposed to cleaning/losing coins I could mention the metal detector finding and inherited collections which are brought back to the market as the younger generation many times doesn't have the same connection with the classics. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3843 Posts |
I don't think that comparing ancient Roman coinage to early U.S. coinage is an apples to apples comparison.
The Roman Empire had nearly 100 million people at its peak. Ancients are so affordable and available because there are lots of them out there with new hoards uncovered every year. Just dig down in an area that was urbanized during Roman times and you will find large quantities of coins.
Edited by Joe2007
06/25/2014 02:50 am
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
Quote from a numismatic auctioneer:
"The rare coins get rarer, the common coins stay common".
The big ticket very high grade coins, and the big ticket rare coins tend to disappear into investment portfolios. They are retained by people who are not as genuinely interested in numismatics as some of us with lesser financial resources.
Applies to all areas of numismatics, which includes U.S. classic coins.
I think that is a bit sad, but that is just the way it is, and we have to accept it, weather we like it or not.
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Replies: 19 / Views: 3,113 |
Posted 06/23/2014 11:21 am
