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 Replies: 14 / Views: 2,527 |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12057 Posts |
A question that has been in my mind lately. On major auction sites, DMPL MS 62-64 Morgans are consistently bringing in 1.5-2x over Bluesheet ask, and the major consumer price guides (CW, PCGS/NGC) are also lagging behind the market by quite a bit. As an example, a Bluesheet 1880-S PCGS MS-63 DMPL is somewhere around $170 ask, sight unseen. PCGS's price guide has the same coin at $130, and it's usually extremely optimistic, to say the least. However, a quick ebay search will tell you that the cheapest listed 1880-S example starts at $399.99, and the cheapest PCGS any-date in MS63DMPL is $275.00 for a highly suspect 1904-O in an OGH. It's not just slab inflation; NGC coins are also pulling strongly ahead of both Bluesheet and consumer price guide values, and the gap between a NGC -63DPL and a PCGS -63DMPL is very narrow compared to other coin series, where PCGS can carry up to a 30% slab premium grade-to-grade vs. a coin in an NGC holder. Bidding is strong even at 2x or more of price guide levels, with some coins selling for ridiculous amounts over book (a 1880-S in PCGS MS63DMPL with dark peripheral toning took in $582.81, quite surprising for a coin "valued" at $130 on their own site.) The bidding for MS-65 examples is even more bizarre. A quick ebay search reveals that the cheapest PCGS 1881-S 65DMPL on ebay is priced at $895.99, which is not much ahead of Bluesheet ask ($860 or so), and substantially less than PCGS price guide, which has the same coin at $1175, and the coin on ebay has very attractive peripheral toning. Generally speaking, it appears that Morgans in DMPL/DPL from 62 to 64 are selling strongly above book, and 65 and better examples are more in line with expected prices. I'm not sure what exactly is going on with this. I have some thoughts, and perhaps you'd like to throw your $1 into the ring. Is this a case of demand driving price relative to supply, or are MS-62 to MS-64 Morgans in DMPL/DPL slabs perhaps undervalued by the price guides relative to their scarcity and demand? Are there other factors at work here? DMPL Morgans continue to move in mid MS grades, while other silver coins suffer (e.g. the massive recent drop in mid to upper grade slabbed FB/FSB Mercury dimes.) Do you think that the strength in these coins is likely to continue, or perhaps even put upwards price pressure on 65 and higher examples? In other words, with common-date 65 and 66 examples bringing much lower premiums vs. book, do you think that bids and buys at current 65/66 DMPL prices are attractive with respect to their possible future value increases? Perhaps the market in the lower MS grades is overheated, and will experience a market adjustment soon. Thanks for reading this. Please feel free to jump in if you have anything to contribute to the discussion, or if you want to share your thoughts on DMPL's or Morgans in general.  Member ANA - EAC - TNA - SSDC - CCT #890 "Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis Edited by paralyse
08/01/2015 8:24 pm
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Valued Member
United States
403 Posts |
DMPL Morgans detached from guide prices 5 or so years ago and continue to accelerate in value because true DMPLs are stunning coins and simply blow PL Morgans out of the water. I own a few and the fellow collectors I show them to often remark about how stunning they are and in several instances, have acquired lower-grade examples not too long thereafter.
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
12057 Posts |
So, Cartwheel, do you think the market price pressure from lower MS DMPL/DPL coins will cause increases in value for the -65 and better specimens?
I agree with them being both beautiful and stunning. I have only one, and it's got neat toning, and sometimes I find myself staring at it just to stare at it.
Member ANA - EAC - TNA - SSDC - CCT #890 "Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4469 Posts |
The pressure is already on the DMPL 65s. I was after a 1898 O MS65 DMPL in the last Heritage auction and I should have been able to buy the coin for under $900 based on past realized prices and I quit on the coin when the bidding got over $1200.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12057 Posts |
Sounds like now might be a good time to pick up some 65 DMPL's.
Member ANA - EAC - TNA - SSDC - CCT #890 "Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis |
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Valued Member
United States
403 Posts |
No, the higher grade specimens appeal to a different class of collector, in my opinion. The upward pressure on MS63 and MS64 examples exists because they are well within reach of the majority of collectors. I think it is a lot easier for a non-Morgan collector to justify a one-off $300-$500 purchase for a great type coin, rather than the $1,000 or so a quality MS65 DMPL will run you.
However, PQ examples will probably continue to rise.
Edited by CartwheelCollector
08/01/2015 10:04 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4469 Posts |
It is hard to predict the future of any market. I like the PL and DMPL coins, so I have them in my Morgan collection. Once you get away from the 1881 S, 1883 CC and 1884 CC the DMPL coins are hard to find in PQ for the grade. I collect MS64s and MS65s in PL and DMPL. I try to buy my PL coins with a white cameo.
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Valued Member
United States
68 Posts |
Very interesting observations
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4469 Posts |
Paralyse,
I find the MS61, MS62 and some MS63s in DMLP to be heavily bag marked with the bag marks distracting on the mirror fields and frosty cheek, and I have seen this comment from other collectors of DMPL. In lower grades often the DMPL price would be close to the price of the MS coin in the same grade. In the higher grades MS65, there would be a larger separation in the price for a MS65 and a MS65 DMLP. For example, at the high end of the price scale a 1881CC MS62 would sell for $560 and a MS62 DMPL would sell for $675. There is not much difference in price between the two coins, but the populations totals there is a big difference as PCGS has graded 1289 in MS62 and only 107 in MS62 DMPL. There may be many factors at play causing the MS62 to command more money. For example, the perception of the coin quality of the MS62 DMPL may be changing. There could to be a price correction going on for the lower grade DMPL as the MS62 DMPL appears to be a good buy when compared to a MS62 based on PCGS population counts verses price, and many of the lower grade DMPL coins are affordable to the average collector.
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Valued Member
United States
459 Posts |
I noticed this same thing on ebay before the Summer FUN show. I planned on acquiring a DMPL Morgan for somewhere south of 500. Whenever I arrived at the show I expected (roughly) the same prices as ebay, but I was somewhat surprised. I walked around asking everyone if they had DMPLs, and the price of the coins. I found that most dealers at the show were around the PCGS listed price. (I was looking for a 64) I was able to purchase an 64 DMPL 80-S, with Green Cac, for 375, where PCGS lists it at 400. Some of the other coins I found were an 85-P in 64DMPL for 300, but the mirrors were not as strong as the 80-S. I saw a couple 63s for 140-200ish depending on the dealer. I think that the ebay sellers jack up the price because of the lower quantity available on the net, and if you were to go to a major show, you'd see prices closer to PCGS's Price guide. Note that I did not look or price any 65s because they were simply out of my range...  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4469 Posts |
Here is a 1883 CC MS64 DMPL that I went after at a recent Heritage auction. PCGS price guide lists the coin at $650, and this PQ coin sold for $1057 more in line with the prices of a MS65 DMPL. I quit bidding when the coin got above $800, but I would have liked to have this coin in my collection. It looked like a slam dunk for a MS65 DMPL or at least a green bean, but you never know.  |
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Valued Member
United States
171 Posts |
I have to agree it looks like a good ms65 coin and so did the buyer. I'm thinking its going to get cracked out and resubmitted, but buyer is not going to gain anything because he paid 65 $$ for it. Only way he is going to make $$ on it is if it gets a 65+ or 66 out of it. And then go for the bean.
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Valued Member
United States
403 Posts |
That coin does not look like a DMPL by modern standards. You really should not purchase the older holders in DMPL or PL unless you have seen the coin in-hand and confirmed it meets the modern definition of DMPL/PL. They are far more difficult to get today than they were back then, since the TPG's didn't institute strict standards for the designations until around 2002 or so, from what I recall. That rattler slab likely dates to 1988 or thereabouts, correct? CAC will likely not sticker the coin either due to the lack of depth of mirrors. Likely, the only way the buyer gets themselves unburied from that coin is to crack and resub, and land it in a 66PL holder, which I do not believe it has a shot at. Even then, they will be lucky to break even. Either that, or hope they find a greater fool who will take it as-is. For what it is worth, I recently parted with an 1884-CC in the GSA case, graded 64 DMPL by NGC, and with a green CAC sticker, for $685. That was a superlative example, however, with stunning mirrors and beautiful contrast, and I only parted with it because it was not right for my set. A coin like this is probably worth around $550-$600 tops, and I cannot believe that three bidders were willing to chase it down the rabbit hole to over $1,000. Edited by CartwheelCollector
08/05/2015 2:11 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
Has anyone here actually completed a set of Morgans in any condition? To complete the set in any condition is a consummation devoutly to be wished. To complete a set of Morgans in MS condition would be a life time achievement. I could buy a nice house in my neighborhood for less.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4469 Posts |
Here is a auction that I was involved in a couple of weeks ago. The 1878 7tf R79 MS62 PL retails for $240. The OGH looked a grade higher, so I put in a bid in the high 300's that the MS63's were selling for, and was planning on adding it to my collection. I was shocked the coin sold for $577. Do you think the coin sold for the correct amount or was it a result of auction fever? Do you think the coin could find its way into a MS 64 holder as the coin would have a value over a $1000?   |
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Replies: 14 / Views: 2,527 |
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Posted 08/01/2015 9:18 pm
