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 Replies: 13,313 / Views: 1,067,495 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2525 Posts |
Quote:
I used to publish statistics about actual Jefferson circulation obsolescence ..... but nobody cares so I gave up on reporting that data It's not that we don't care about What's NOT out there, We just care more about What IS out there!  Thanks for your effort anyhow! We appreciate the stats! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
716 Posts |
Went through 50 bank rolls;
0 bufflaos;
0 wartimers;
0 proof;
Key and semi-keys: 42d;
5 more to go:
38s,39s,45p,45d,50d.
Total searched: 2100 rolls.
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Valued Member
United States
476 Posts |
Picked up a box from my bank last night and the darn thing was another full box of 2008-D's. Had to take it home and open it to make sure it wasn't 2009-D's. Guess I'll run through the rolls looking for the gem specimens, but will probably note it on the BST board as well in case anyone wants some of 'em.
It's my second box of full 2008-D's in the last couple of months.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
Nickelsearcher,today I have been searching nickels for exactly one year! Interesting that I believe we both need the same 3 to complete our sets. I really believe the 38 S is tougher to find than the 50 D. My theory goes back to the obsolecense issue you used to track.There are more issues than just minting numbers. Consider these facts, 1938 was pre WW2 1950 was post WW2,nickel loss may have accelerated during those years(maybe many of them are now in Europe for instance). Also,12 more years of circulation and collecting(hoarding) had to take it's toll. So, for those reasons and many others I know I haven't thought of yet,I think the 38 S will be the toughest pull. What do you all think of my"theory"?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2525 Posts |
Quote:
I really believe the 38 S is tougher to find than the 50 D I don't know. The 50D has been hoarded since they were released since they were the lowest mintage. That is why if one does show up in circulation, it is almost always in a higher grade (recently reintroduced into circulation). All the key dates are hard to find...just got to get the right box at the right time! Today 70 rolls (brinks box+10 and 10 customer wrapped) Had a hard time getting nickels today. 2 War Nickels (43S & 45D) and 35 other Pre 1960. |
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Moderator
 United States
15641 Posts |
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What do you all think of my"theory"? My view hockingzig is that you are on the right track ..... the older the coin the more likely that something has happened in the intervening years to cause it to disappear from circulation. Sooo .... I agree with your 'theory'. That said .... my statistics do not alas support your conclusion as to why we are both struggling to find that darn 38-S.  Allow me to explain my logic for this ... I enjoy keeping the detailed records of my nickel roll-search finds ... and have developed for my own use a method to record and analyze the 'data' that comes from my searches. With this data I can calculate a number of things ..... and one of the statistics that I have always tracked is circulation obsolescence .... as you mention in your post. I still track it .... just stopped reporting it assuming I was wasting everyone elses time. Sooooo ... that said ..... follow me here .... the point will be made soon .... Circulation obsolescence for 1930's Jefferson is 82.9% .... that is ... after 140,000 coins I have discovered that the ACTUAL number of 1930's found is 82.9% less than the MINTED number. The rest were 'lost' to us for all the reasons coins are lost from circulation. And .... circulation obsolescence for the Early-1950's Jefferson is 73.4% ..... and this period includes the 50-D which was famously hoarded. If you take that data ..... and use it in conjunction with the actual mintage figures ..... then you will arrive at the following list of actual Top-3 toughest Jefferson's to find in circulation today .... Drum Roll Time? #1 .... 1950-D #2 .... 1939-D #3 .... 1938-S Sooooo ... Quote:
I really believe the 38 S is tougher to find than the 50 D. My data says otherwise ..... and the good news is that we are both due that darn 38-s soon since we have already bagged the harder two coins. Hope this makes some sense to somebody out there! David Take a look at my other hobby ... http://www.jk-dk.art |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
Interesting! I assume that in your calculations you are assuming equal distribution with an equal chance of being found anywhere in the country. I assume also, that you are then projecting number still in circulation as a proportion of number you have found to number searched and that applied to total mintage. There are some possible biases if this is your approach. I don't want you to think I doubt your stats, I am just trying to understand how you arrived at them. It is always interesting to look at ways to"predict"probabilities. By the way, I hope you're right! I don't want to have to look forever. Also,are you finding less pre-1960's here the last month or so? I don't keep detailed stats but the general trend since the middle of October is a lot fewer pre-60's overall.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
687 Posts |
So I really only started roll searching in November and I've only done 30 rolls this year so far, but I found my first buffalo! It's not in the greatest shape, but at least I can read date. My wife things I'm crazy, but roll hunting is fun!  |
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Valued Member
United States
335 Posts |
Nickelsearcher, could you list the circulation obsolescence percentages you've calculated for the other periods of time? Or just list the pre-1960's in order of difficulty, as you see it?
My son and I make guesses about which holes he'll fill next. Some empirical data might be fun to see.
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Valued Member
United States
487 Posts |
 I'm a new member to this blog. Started to read this thread and it has peaked my interest! I do collect Jefferson nickles, and when I read all the finds people have came across I'm going to give it a try! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6326 Posts |
Just found another " War Nickel".......'43P ......  Got this box on Wed.......lots of early dates |
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Moderator
United States
15641 Posts |
Nice score RollHunter ...... it's always a thrill to find a Buffalo roaming amongst my Jeffersons! Quote:
Nickelsearcher, could you list the circulation obsolescence percentages you've calculated for the other periods of time? I will ..... but in the spirit of not hijacking CND's thread I'll do so in a seperate thread. Take a look at my other hobby ... http://www.jk-dk.art |
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Valued Member
United States
161 Posts |
I bought a box yesterday...finally! During the week my desk has to be solely a homework zone, or else I will procrastinate to no end. No coins allowed! This weekend, however, is a three-day weekend, so I cleared the textbooks off the desk and replaced them with nickels. I'm halfway through the box and so far it's a good one. I'll post the results when I'm finished (either Sunday or Monday).
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2150 Posts |
To date I have never tried roll searching, though I had a big jug of coins I was starting to roll cause I just lost my job and need some extra cash. First nickel I pulled from the pile....'42s silver War Nickel. YAY! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
716 Posts |
Went through two box and 50 customer rolls; 0 bufflaos; 1 wartimers;44P 1 proof;77S Key and semi-keys: 39s  ; So I found 3 out of the toughest five. Three down and two left! 4 more to go: 38s,45p,45d,50d. I can't believe those two War Nickels are so hard to come by. Total searched: 2250 rolls. |
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Replies: 13,313 / Views: 1,067,495 |
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Posted 01/14/2010 9:14 pm
