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 Replies: 15 / Views: 2,406 |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts |
Poll Question
I hear over and over mintage is a key factor in the popularity of a coin. However, I've noticed some high mintage coins that are popular, if using the measure of selling price above issue price.
Here are just a couple examples: 2011 Lotus rabbit over 19k, 2012 1st dino 25k, 2012 50 cent titanic coin 15k, early bird of Canada coins 17k,ghost bride 2014 15k, just to name a few. Many of these aren't even silver.
I have noticed so many nclt just tank on the secondary market, yet others are in high demand, even several years later. Sole low mintage doesn't always play into it, as my examples show. Nor does lack of precious metal make sense. I'm trying to make sense of what I see.
This indicates to me that design is a stronger fact than mintage or even metal content. Please share other examples and your opinions.
Voting Question: Which element do you feel most contributes to a popular coin. Again popular is defined by selling above issue price, as in my first sentence. Especially in relation to nclt coins.
Edited by pocket change 50
01/06/2016 11:15 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5828 Posts |
I assume you mean design/mintage? That's what I chose, because if you look at the 1909 S IHC and the 1909 S VDB Wheat cent, you'll see that the LWC has a higher mintage but is still worth more than the lower minted 1909 S IHC... This is simply due to the design, because more people collect wheats than IHCs |
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Moderator
 United States
54280 Posts |
A coin could be considered "popular" because people like to collect them for their collection.
A coin could be considered "popular" because the mint sells a lot of them.
Popular can mean "enjoyed by many", or it can mean "frequently encountered".
Lincoln cents are popular in both meanings.
Low mintage might make a coin popular because they want it for their collection so they seek it out.
High mintage might make a coin popular because it is frequently encountered in everyday use.
What did you mean by "popular"?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1192 Posts |
I think design comes first and then metal then mintage as far as popularity as far as how big of a market you have. Metal is more of a limiting factor then anything.
Metal dictates what market it can be sold to for the most part which affects if mintage. Silver coins are usually the most popular because the metal has value but it's not out of reach of most people. Gold coins or platinum coins have metal prices which put them out of reach of most ordinary consumers. It's a lot easier to find $20-40 dollars for a one ounce coin then if it cost over $1200 for the same size. Base metal sets can be seen as less serious by most people due to all its value is just from a collectors standpoint.
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
1751 Posts |
Very interesting answers so far. I clarified popular to mean defined by selling above issue in nclt. Still all answers provided me with some insight. I like the Indian Head cent more than Lincoln basically for its design. For me a strong design followed by metal, as I am partial to silver and cannot afford gold. Its true precious metals are more desirable and then limited by price. There are many gold designs I would drool at owning. However, I would need to win a lottery first. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1601 Posts |
Quote:
Base metal sets can be seen as less serious by most people due to all its value is just from a collectors standpoint. Last year's Coin & Chronicles kind of fits into this. While there was precious metal in the sets, I don't think they'd have sold nearly so well without the reverse proof. Collectors don't like the small president dollars, but make it a reverse proof & limit to mintage = instant hot ticket. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
6768 Posts |
One of the important factors, that increase the potential of the coin to be popular: Low starting price.
This is the reason, that the non-silver coins , that you listed became popular.
CAD 30 coin with attractively innovative design (GITD-1, 50c Titanic) or strong and clear theme (Birds series) are very welcomed, have been purchased and sought for.
2009 Moon Mask and Zodiac Rabbit - initial low demand and after - games with the mintage.
So, the above very important, but traditional hits are mostly due to design / novelty.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5324 Posts |
Design first, how many laughing, smiling, sleeping beavers do we need, and of course mintage, the Perth Mint has had 2000 mintage for years and still have some coins that does not sell out due to too many issue. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts |
I agree with price and design, its a big one for me. First I find a design I like and then I consider the price. Price is probably about 60% of the decision, since the past 18 months. Namely will I find it cheaper in half a year later.
Prior to the issue of coins rapidly falling below issue, price was at about 30% of the decision process. I wasn't worried I would find the coin for half price within 6 months, as prices tended to stay the same or increase.
So as the market has changed so have my priorities, in how I decide to purchase coins. Something that doesn't effect the circulation coins as much. I'm waiting for the market to stabilize more, before committing to more mint purchases.
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
Impossible to enter into a poll of this nature,
nevertheless, an answer IS possible.
There is no one on the Planet that can predict share prices or silver prices into the future with certainty.
Without being able to predict future prices is is safer to just track NCLT prices in the numismatic aftermarket. You may then make an intuitive decision to buy or sell, when you feel it is right, based on your own price research and judgement based on that research.
The numismatic aftermarket will make it's own intuitive judgement, based on a mix of all of the market forces operating on it, including all of the voting factors mentioned in the above poll. All you have to do is track the price of the items that you are interested in.
Edited by sel_69l
01/13/2016 06:30 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2408 Posts |
Very good poll.
I voted "all 3". But... deep inside the real winner is "metal".
Because in the end, what's left after time are molecules of gold, silver, platinum, ...
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Rest in Peace
Canada
1360 Posts |
You left out price. Thinking of the 2011 baby set... price was way down, population some would believe is low mintage, materials are circulation, yet the price keeps going up. (currently one being offered on ebay for $199.00) Answer... it's all hype, and timing. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts |
I left out price for two reasons, first coins are pricy compared to the metal made from. Secondly I plain forgot, as I didn't think of it as a factor in the popular coins. As the popular coins tend to trend up in price. Its one way to tell the success of a coin is price. There's been several votes and I am no further ahead, in finding out what makes a coin popular. It has been interesting. Hopefully more votes may provide some clear answers. We keep saying the same old stuff is getting released. Yet we cannot say what would be desirable offerings. So I will keep  . |
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Pillar of the Community
570 Posts |
pocket change 50, perhaps you should have asked what makes people RUN after the coin.
Then the answer would be like that: good design makes coin popular, low mintage makes it scarce. If the combination of design/mintage is below the threshold then the "extra" coins driving prices down. The more "extra" coins are on the market the deeper prices are falling. If the combination is above threshold then not only the collectors trying to buy it, but flippers too, which makes this coin even more scarce.
The bottom line, there is no balance, as soon as there is even a possibility for a good flip, then number of people who wants to buy this coin will be more then the number of people who wants actually to keep it. Obviously, when the "good flip" fails, then market is flooded with this coins and prices are tanked.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts |
I also wonder how many people are influenced by talk on various forums. I know I have bought in the past partly due to forum hype, so not to pay increased prices on the secondary market. I am still happy with those few purchases. I have also purchased older coins that have been discussed on the forum. Its like rediscovering a coin, you paid little attention too. For me its the silver dollar series.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2845 Posts |
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I also wonder how many people are influenced by talk on various forums.
I'd never buy a coin just because someone pumped it, but certainly it you asked any politician about the influence of social media, the answer would be a great deal......particularly if that question were to be asked in Alberta!  Seriously though. the psychology behind marketing is quite fascinating and it's widely known that "what others have" can be a huge buying factor to some. It used to be referred to as "keeping up with the Joneses. RCM's MC overlaps that philosophy somewhat - it offers prestige and status. |
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Replies: 15 / Views: 2,406 |
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Posted 01/06/2016 10:06 pm
