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 Replies: 70 / Views: 8,982 |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts |
I have spent the last few nights looking on ebay and Colonial Acres. I see BIN prices for full issue in solds, Except for a select few coins are way under. O Canada and some less popular ones. Of course auctions are just dismal. Probably because everyone is waiting for a bargain. There's no real bargains with the BINs. The big Canadian dealers seem to be doing fine. Looking at Colonial Acres site, again no real dramatic price drops in regular listing. Maybe $10 here or there. Again over produced coins like O Canada have the deepest discount. I see the Great Lakes at regular prices. The other shocking thing, there was an awful lot of out of stock coins. So are dealers just overrun with certain issues. I don't think its as bad as has been made out. I agree Canada Post is overstuffed. However, who uses CP as a coin dealer. Until coming to CCF, I wouldn't have thought of CP for coins. Isn't this a recent development. Yes deals can be had, but some time and effort needs to be put forth. I thought a new thread is a better idea, than clogging up the Great Lakes thread, which has a great discussion, with lots of insights. I don't think things as dire as comments on other thread seem to indicate. It would be nice to hear from long time collectors or dealers, what trends have they seen and where was silver spot price. Maybe prices go in cycles. I know I was paying $20 for a regular non nclt $ in 2012, and looking on ebay yesterday there's only a couple of $ drop. Older nclt could be had $10-$15, still pretty much the same. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5324 Posts |
Take a look back at the previous 2 or 3 TCNC auctions lots of NCLT most with no bids starting around half of issue, and the sold prices were mainly one bid. Canada Post is the RCM largest dealers, eventually these coins will get blown out, there was a member in an earlier post that he taken some NCLT to sell to Canadian Coin was offered about half of issue or less if my memory is correct. Colonial Acres had a few auctions with quite a few NCLT, same results poor prices or no bids. |
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New Member
Canada
31 Posts |
This is a great topic- it would be nice to hear from some "experts" rather than all the negative comments.  I know a dealer in silver/gold who expects to see silver climb. He's had his company for about 25 years. He discouraged me to buy NCLT, but If I must only if they are low mintage. I really like NCLT and treat them like little pieces of art. If I don't get that warm, fuzzy feeling from a coin I see- I won't buy. I have to really like it, rather than hype. 2012 was a very exciting year (I bought too much) and now, I really have to like it or I'll start looking like a hoarder. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5324 Posts |
I think you answered your own question when your own dealer's advice on NCLT, but just to test the theory take a few 2015 NCLT to your local silver and gold store and ask what they would offer.
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
1751 Posts |
 cash03, you will find a well of knowledge here and the people are friendly. Read some threads from 2012 and the vibe is very different. A long time poster Kuh mentioned in another thread 5 yrs ago, a 10% discount was a great find. I think the market isn't as bad as everyone is making out. I do think mints are over pricing their coins with falling spot. It is true no longer can small profits be made on ebay on recent releases. However, majority of collectors keep their coins until a financial crisis. I think its more of a psychological thing. Its nice to know the coin holds some value. Dealers have to offer less to cover operating costs. How do we explain BIN sold prices at issue, if the hobby is in such a dismal state. Has anyone looked at dealer prices and seen which coins are effected. Yes I agree there is way too much and its bound to have an impact. However, what % of the population has access to these deals. Has anyone continuously built their collection around discounted coins. Auctions on ebay starting at 99 cent has been a bad premise for many years now, no matter what non hot item you sell. Listing a 99 cent auction for a non hot item, is just asking for a loss. Most people on ebay are bargain hunters. Prior to ebay did collectors worry about what the retail value of their coin was. Has ebay and the ability to sell privately influenced how we view collecting nclt. Its true no one will spend large dollar amounts day after day on something, with no useful purpose and declining value. There has been many changes in the hobby, with monthly releases. However new coins continue to be sold. Collectors are being more selective and this may lead to current perceptions. Lets face it not all 300 coins can be stars. Edited by pocket change 50
01/10/2016 5:10 pm
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Rest in Peace
Canada
1360 Posts |
The price of the coins went up with the price of bullion, and never came down. Why?
My take on it, is that as there was more profit in the higher priced coins, so the mint did what any industry would do.
They increased the Sales and manufacturing staff in quantity and salary.
Now with bullion dropping to near 10 year lows, the larger part of the cost of producing the coins remains
high - ie the cost of labour will not fluctuate as does bullion. Just MHO or 2 cents worth.
Edited by Dcadon
01/10/2016 5:44 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts |
However, the bullion input is cheaper, so giving them more profit. I am still trying to wrap my head around how a 1 oz medallion at $50 is profitable after paying royalties. They still have the same production costs plus royalty, and are still making profit. So what is the profit on 1 oz at $149.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
798 Posts |
I am a dealer and I can tell you that most inventory sits and does not move. Hot issues, and brand new stuff moves but the margins are very tight on those items. The market for graded coins is very strong, but mostly just for top issues. When I'm buying from someone, I will offer 50% of issue price (cash), but only if I believe the issue can grade MS/PF/SP 70. I send the issues to NGC and my hit rate is about 50/50. PF/SP/MS 69 usually sells for a loss or at cost, but the 70s cover those losses and then some. Look, an MS69 2016 Maple is selling for $22 USD, and grading fees are $17 USD per coin ... so you tell me where the profit is being made, especially with FVF and Paypal fees. MS70 maples will sell for $300-400 USD.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts |
JGG, when did grading phenomenon start. I have noticed it getting bigger each year. I thought it was in response to the counterfeit issue. Is it mainly a US thing. Do you handle a lot of nclt graded coins. With ms69 barely breaking even and going for less at times, I don't see much profit being made. It must be a numbers game. Do you see this as a growing trend. Its nice to hear a dealers viewpoint.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
532 Posts |
It's disheartening to have paid top price for the first four. At least I can shop for the last. I also bought this set because I liked it so regardless it's no loss for me. The Case is a nice bonus.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts |
Interesting thing, case mania has settled down too. People used to order just to get the case and then cancel the order. Many found case flipping profitable. Now no attention is paid to series with nice cases. It seems have come full circle. It could be steps leading to prices stabilizing, since most flippers have left for greener pastures. This should lessen artificial gluts, as flippers were buying from dealers too. This would artificially create demand. Dealers benefited from higher prices and higher demand. Now everyone is going through a period of readjustment.
Anyone ever total a years worth of units the mint offers. It adds up to needing a large number of collectors to consume a collectable.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
798 Posts |
Pocket Change, Grading NCLT is mostly due to registry set competition on the NGC site. Basically, wealthy folks competing with each other for the very best coins. It is common with US and China issue commemoratives and bullion, but has started on Canadian coins as well. Definitely, the finest graded Canada NCLT coin collections are in the USA, with the exception of one or two ... but hey, who knows what raw coins people have stored away North of the border. Profits on graded items are not as good as they used to be in 2009-2012, but things even out so that the lights stay on. I used to sell mint items in OGP at a profit, but had to move into NGC graded NCLT to keep the business in the black. I sell 80% of my coins to US customers. I find the market up here to be very weak, and often have issues with payment from Canadian customers on larger orders. Not trying to infer any reasons as to why, but the money is in the US market - even for Canadian coins. Now, all this being said, I never really got into coins to become rich, I did it because I enjoyed the hobby and wanted to build my own collection. There are much easier ways to make money. Park your money into a dividend stock that pays 7% annually, and then you don't have to pull your hair out dealing with HST, customs/duties, CRA, tariffs and taxes on imported coins that aren't supposed to be taxed, FVF fees, FVF on shipping fees, the nightmare that is Pitney Bowes, PO box rentals, Paypal fees, website fees, the list goes on and on. The only way to really make money on coins is to pander to wealthy clients and secure what they want (Dan Hughes, Martens and Augustus on the NGC Registry for example), convince a fund to include graded coins (like the PCGS 3000 index)-which will likely never happen since the late 80s coin frauds and the coingate scandal, bottom feed the Overstock and sell it at 10% margins, or make your money on premiums (have clients sell their collections through you, and you generate a % fee no matter what they sell it for). One thing that is important with the registry sets, is that these guys take a decade to build a set and they are usually only a few hundred or few thousand points away from each other. If you have a coin that they need to boost them up past their competitor, they will secure it from you at a very decent price. Most big dealers live paycheque to paycheque, but are sitting on a million dollars worth of inventory. So that inventory can be used to secure loans during the down times, and can also be liquidated when they decide to pack it in and retire South or if they need to pare down until prices pick up. This is the first time I have seen the Mint take such an active role in saturating the market and fatiguing the customer - and worst of it all, they seem very cavalier about the situation on the whole. Edited by JGG
01/10/2016 10:25 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2845 Posts |
JGG that's a very interesting perspective that you've shared.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts |
JGG, there is so much to digest in your post, I've read it 3X. It raises a ton of questions. I guess most of us don't think about the very wealthy collector interests. Who would of thought there's a way to compete with nclt coins. Sounds like graded nclt coins has been around since 2009, so its not new.
What is coin gate, I never heard of it. Where do see the hobby headed in the next 4 yrs. How has the internet influenced the market. I know with out the internet I would be stuck coin roll hunting, as a coin shop is 4 hrs away. I have never been in one and only attended 1 coin show. The nice thing about the internet is I can compare prices from various sources and not tire myself out. It probably has brought in people who wouldn't be collectors otherwise.
Lastly how has various silver prices impacted retail prices and sales. Have you notice any correlation between prices and spot.
Edited by pocket change 50
01/10/2016 11:50 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2366 Posts |
Quote:
Of course auctions are just dismal A couple of thoughts on this. First, with the flood of coins from the RCM starting around say 2012 the overall coin market didn't grow to keep pace. I don't think it shrank though. My theory is that it fragmented. Buyers refined their interests to what they could afford. So, for example, somebody who used to buy animal coins and used to be able to keep up now only buys wolf coins because that's all they can keep up with. In other words, the market has been spread out thinner over each individual coin issued. Second, dealers (can probably include flippers here as well) didn't pick up on the sea change that flood initiated right away. Who can blame them? So they continued their historical ordering patterns and ended up with a bunch of inventory that wasn't moving. So they dumped it on the market for whatever they could get as they used to do when the market was 'thicker' so this second flood rapidly pushed prices down on coins that were RCM released just a year or less earlier. So this created an expectation of 'just wait a few months and pick it up cheap' in buyers. I've seen previous posts about people saying only a 99 cent ebay auction start indicates the 'true' price of a coin and while I think that is generally true I also think it's a bit of an oversimplification in light of my first point above. For an auction to indicate the 'true' price of a coin you have to have a sufficiently large pool of bidders. AND those bidders have to participate in your auction within the limited (usually just 1 week) time the auction runs. It used to work that way when they were only a relatively few coins hitting the auction blocks each week. A buyer could log in once a week and check what's up for sale in a few minutes and participate in everything they were interested in. Today you would need to spend an hour a day to keep up and who's going to do that? So you're getting a noticeable number of auctions where the only bidders who even show up for them are the super bargain hunters so you end up with a low ball price at the end. To continue my frequent stock market analogies for coin market behaviours, look at what happens when liquidity dries up. Straying even further into personal opinion here, I think the flood phase is starting to pass. Dealers should have noticed the changes by now and reduced their ordering which provides feedback to the RCM to reduce mintages and number of releases (Looks like that's starting to happen. Take the mintages on proof sets and the cancellation of the BU silver dollar as examples.). Buyers have also reduced their RCM orders to move to the cheaper secondary market which provides further feedback to the RCM. Fewer 99 cent start auctions are being posted; they're being listed more with higher minimum prices or BIN w/ BO instead. As another example mentioned earlier in a different thread, Colonial Acres was dumping the 2013 $10 Skimmer at 99 cent start auctions week after week for months during 2015 which drove the price down to ridiculously low levels at one point. But the 2014 Bison coins dumping ran for a significantly shorter period of time. So I'm cautiously optimistic that the market has bottomed out and may start to recover somewhat going forward. At least until the next shock hits of course! |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5324 Posts |
Once you start the downhill trend in a collectable, it's really hard to reverse the process, we lose faith and it is hard to get people back into the market place. We need the RCM to listen, and stop the commission coins, lowered mintages, better themes, and at least halved the offerings. Your insights are also bang on. |
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Replies: 70 / Views: 8,982 |
Posted 01/10/2016 4:16 pm
