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 Replies: 7 / Views: 1,951 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1192 Posts |
Do you think gold will ever drop back in the $500-$800/oz range? I'd love to own a nice $20 pre33 gold coin but at today's prices it's not cheap. I've made posts before asking about what years/mm to look for but now I'm curious about melt value. I'd hate to spend $1500 on a saint today ($250-300 over melt) and 2-3 years from now gold drops and they can be had for $800-1000. However if gold rises much more and they go up to $2000+ I'd never get my chance to own one. Obviously no one knows the future for sure but I wanted to get your opinions. Is it more likely for gold to drop, remain steady, or continue to rise over the next 10-20 years? What about even more long term..50 years? Thanks!
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Valued Member
United States
85 Posts |
Of all the forums I visit, this is the most asked question. Your guess is as good as anyone's. Some will say up, some will say down, some will say up then down then up or down then up then down. You get my point... Don't plan your spending based on the opinions of the few who happen to reply to your post on that given day. Now that I got that out of the way....
Personally I say up. Why? I dunno. Everything has gone up. Will it be worth the same later when you take into account inflation... I don't know that either. But I know the coin here and bar there will be worth more than the fancy dinner or whatever else I might buy now that I don't need.
50 years? That's my (middle) sons timeline. He's on board with PM's. He's only 13 but I'm glad he likes to stack & collect because most his age spend every dollar as soon as they get it. With our population growing so quickly, things like antiques, art, even PM will become scarcer. In my opinion. I started stacking (and my son) when silver was at $18.50. Sure I bought too soon. Hindsight is always 20/20. But he has a long life with plenty of opportunities ahead of him.
If you can afford it and like it, buy it. It's not hurting anyone. Will it go down? Maybe. That just means you will have to wait longer to sell it as history shows it always seems to be a safe haven.
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Valued Member
United States
85 Posts |
BTW pre '33 gold wil be our next purchases. We got all the bullion, ASE, 90% that we want (for now). Pre '33 looks to be a winner in our eyes. Edited by Ryans Rust
03/15/2016 5:02 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5244 Posts |
The price of commodities does not follow any natural law (like gravity), but psychological elements some into play, so it cannot be predicted.
That being said, some aspects of human nature are fairly predictable:
Greed and fear (would drive the price up)
Thirst for power and market manipulation (could artificially raise or lower prices).
That being said, the price of gold cannot plummet like paper to zero, so there is some consolation there, unless the event described in that "Twilight Zone" episode from the 1960s comes to pass. Odds are, long-term, inflation will return and the paper cost of gold will rise. What it will buy is a whole other issue.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
Gold has had two major bull markets since 1979 and one just ended. The more chaos in the world the higher price of gold especially if something happens in China or India since they are gold hoarders for centuries. During the recent stock market sell off of 2009 the gold market went up to $1800 an ounce and now is back to $1250 an ounce. I don't know where it goes from here. Statisticians say that prices of stocks and everything else reverts to the mean over time. If that were so then gold would be $825 an ounce.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
Physical gold's value never changes. Only it's measure of value, the fiat dollar, changes. When faith is lost in the dollar, it takes more of it, thrown at gold, to get any gold.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
849 Posts |
You could pay $1500 today on a used car, a new entertainment system, a short trip somewhere, or a new kitchen table. You'd get use and enjoyment out of those things and in 10 years all of them would be worth less or gone.
Or you could buy that coin and enjoy it for ten years and still have it. It might be worth what you paid or somewhat less or somewhat more. I'd say buy it and enjoy it and if it be worth more that is just a bonus.
Just don't do that now if you have to get a loan to buy it, or really need the money for rent or food or car insurance.
Edited by punman
03/16/2016 12:00 am
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts |
Buy it when you want it. Buy now: have now and later. Buy later: have later. When do you want it and why? @sa#: I'm guessing that you're more worried about your dollars than whatever gold may be bought, so that's why my answer is so vague, because at the heart of wanting gold it's mainly because it's a shiny awesome metal like none other, it has /perceived/ rarity, and it has heft which psychologically translates into security. You can have plenty of money and you can have plenty of gold, so it's not up to us to decide your budget, how much you actually want/need to cool your fancies for whatever goal you may have. Will the dollar price move around? Yes, and that's all anyone anywhere can ever say, because if they tell you they know for sure they're taking you for a long long ride.
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Replies: 7 / Views: 1,951 |
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Posted 03/15/2016 5:01 pm
