Morgan Buying Strategy - Question

Of course. I said the highest grade for under $500 not the highest MS under $500. For the 1889-CC I was looking at about a 5 or the close to worn away can sorta make out what it is grade




I am thinking 20 years or more. And I'm not trading in my 401K to buy these.




Agreed although in this case it might be slighter higher but part of that is just the joy I get from collecting them. I consider this more hobby than investment but as it is an expensive hobby I want to try to follow some strategy

My thinking is if the bottom fell out on prices and I lost 50% of the value of my coins would it materially affect my retirement? As long as I can answer no I figure I am good

"Just curious Andrew, why do you consider FB nonsense? If I'm collecting I'd want the best example possible which means a fully struck coin."

The price differential for that single attribute and a 90% struck up coin is 4-5x right now, which is ridiculous IMO. I'm not sure it isn't a fad and the premium could disappear or just contract to a reasonable amount, which might be 25% or so. Just my opinion; maybe 30 years from now people will be paying 10x the MS-65 price for MS-65 FSB, but I think my idea might be more likely to happen.

To make for easier reading, you should use the tags for quotes when quoting someone. I will edit the first post on this page. A sample is below

[quote]text[/quote]

Jax

It can be an expensive hobby depending on what you collect and what condition you demand for your coins. I collect Morgans and I have about 75 of them now. All the rest go from pretty expensive in AU to expensive in VF. I admire your ambition so don't get me wrong thinking I am just being critical of your ideas. There a quite a few Morgans you cannot get even in VF condition under $500. I went to the coin shop yesterday and they had a few coins I bought that I felt were in decent enough condition to buy. They had lots of coins in Good condition and maybe VG condition, but for Morgans these coins look ugly. They are very worn with zero luster yet they were not cheap because they were CC Morgans or early to mid-1890's.

I also view my collecting as a hobby, but it can be a consuming hobby. I spend about $500 a month at least on this "HOBBY". As long as my dividends keep coming in I will keep collecting just for the heck of it. If I began to view coins as an investment it would become work and pretty boring work at that. That is why I don't collect bullion or bags of junk silver while waiting for the "Great Depression" to return and make all our paper money worthless. One thing that is good is to concentrate on one set at a time because this is about the only way you will ever complete the larger sets like Morgans, Liberty Walking half dollars, or even the 2.5 gold Indian. I think the Wheat pennies are the same. You really have to focus on the big sets to ever complete them. Many here will disagree with me I am sure because there are so many ways to collect coins and none of them are really bad. The value of our coins in the future is nothing we can control. You have a long time to collect which is good. I bet if you complete a decent set of Morgans and keep it for over 20 years you will make a profit when and if you ever sell. There are some here who have been collecting since the 1970's. If they just bought GSA Morgans back during Nixon's time and held onto them they would be pretty happy today. I don't have that much time but I just get a kick out of the beauty and the stories behind each coin I collect. So I am with you in your ambitions.

There are many fantastic large foreign silver coins. Many go for about melt price. 90% junk silver is not such a bad idea if you can find a safe place to store it. If really hard times come you will need an arsenal to protect your coins and bullion. A in-house safe is just an invitation to a home invasion. I have the trusty Remington 870 with 00 buckshot ready. I carried an M-16 (AR-15) and if you use one you will end up killing half your neighbors. All those assault type weapons over penetrate and a stray shot can kill someone half a mile away. Storing bullion goes along with the whole survivalist thing. I think I am too old for that world. Before that would happen we would have martial law and the next FDR would probably make owning silver currency illegal.

Setting a limit is a good way to dollar/cost average when you buy coins or anything else over time. Setting $1000 limit means you will buy less coins when prices are high and more coins when prices are low. So when and if you sell your coins 30 years from now you will have bought most when prices were lower if coin prices do rise over time. It works for stocks at least so far.

beem I tend to agree and disagree with you. Because there are so many available they are easy to collect which means key dates in good condition will most likely rise as more collectors chase those few good examples. There are only so many 1893-S Morgans in good condition compared to the millions of MS 1881-S's that while the 1881-S might be a bubble the 1893-S will probably never be. So while overpaying for common dates might be foolish, especially if expecting them to rise, investing in select key dates with a combination of low mintage's and low survival makes sense

What I wonder more is will the prevalence of counterfeit coins damage the market?

I see a number of 1893-S Morgan dollars available, took less than 2 minutes to find on ebay. There are coins on my wanted list I haven't been able to find available for months or even years.

Edit: Ok, so after a bit more research, looking at NGC's census, there are 15 1893-S Morgans graded au-58, another 27 graded higher. And au-58 is a $60,000 coin? I haven't even looked at what PCGS has graded. IMHO, that's just ridiculous.

I dunno, maybe the nominal value for that coin could go higher, I just don't understand why it would. Pure mania, IMHO. $60,000 for a AU Morgan dollar is just mind boggling. It tells me American coin collectors haven't stepped foot in the foreign coin market. I see many gorgeous foreign coins with less supply, more age, and much more attractive valuations. Again, just my opinion, and I hope my opinion is not found to be offensive, that is certainly not my reason for sharing it.