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Opinions Needed: Ebay Seated Liberty Buying Strategy

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MikeF's Avatar
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3479 Posts
 Posted 11/18/2016  05:33 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add MikeF to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
So I went through the mintage list for Seated Liberty dollars and came up with a strategy for acquisitions.

Keep in mind I'm looking for rare undervalued issues.

So my parameters were for mintages under 30,000 and above 20,000. I came up with five: 1844-p, 1845-p, 1855-p, 1859-s, and 1863-p.

Then I backed-checked that against how many active ebay listings per coin type.
1844-p - 14 listings
1845-p - 19 listings
1855-p - 3 listings (I'm assuming b/c so many were melted)
1859-s - 16 listings
1863-p - 18 listings

Armed with that, my first purchase was an AU-50 PCGS 1845-p issue-free for $1,500.

I would post a link to the coin but I was reprimanded by CCF for posting a link in a previous post. I imagine it's because I'm a new member.


Edited by MikeF
11/18/2016 08:18 am
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Fuzzy317's Avatar
United States
14463 Posts
 Posted 11/18/2016  05:37 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Fuzzy317 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you are talking an ebay link, those should be fine. Posting a link to a store you own, not fine (just an example).
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MikeF's Avatar
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3479 Posts
 Posted 11/18/2016  05:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MikeF to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks for the clarification Fuzzy,
I don't have a store. I posted it in the counterfeit section asking if it was indeed a counterfeit. A couple hours later I was emailed the following:

"Hello MikeF

This is a note about your posting on Coin Community Forum
titled: New listing- 1870 Seated dollar conterfeit or real?.

It has been removed from public display. Please review the rules to see if you were in violation.
Rules: http://www.coincommunity.com/forum/rules.asp

If you review the rules and do not feel there was a violation, you may reply to this email."

I reviewed the rules and figured it was the line about new members posting links.

Thank you!
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BStrauss3's Avatar
United States
4591 Posts
 Posted 11/18/2016  06:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BStrauss3 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I can't tell whether you are looking for information, a pat on the back, or what... It seems like you are trying to cherrypick from ebay.

I'm assuming you want to avoid buying from knowledgeable dealers and organizations like the Liberty Seated Coin Club and the dealers who advertise in the magazine and website? Since they won't be underpricing?

In terms of establishing the market price (so you have a definition of undervalued), there are several resources.

The bluesheet and greysheet. The bluesheet lists prices for sight unseen transactions between dealers, in other words the minimum you should be able to sell the item for. The greysheet lists prices for sight seen transactions between dealers (and at auction) and represents what you should be able to buy for - anything above greysheet is basically the retail markup. Although they are not inexpensive, you can buy single copies or a subscription.

NGC and PCGS both have price guides (take them with a huge grain of salt).

The NGC page lists recent auction sales, here. You can hide details coins via the checkbox and that will give you auction pricing over the years.

PCGS's page (here) has a "shop" link that searches ebay (not terribly well).


-----Burton
50+ year / Life / Emeritus ANA member (joined 12/1/1973)
Life member: Numismatics International, CONECA
Member: TNA, FtWCC, NETCC, EveryCountry (online) coin club
Owned by three cats and a wife of 40+ years (joined 1983)

Author: 3rd Edition of the Sample Slabs book, https://www.sampleslabs.info/
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MikeF's Avatar
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3479 Posts
 Posted 11/18/2016  06:41 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MikeF to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Bstrauss Thank you for the reply.

This post was meant to solicit opinions about my strategy-that's all. To your other questions:

"It seems like you are trying to cherrypick from ebay."

Answer: Absolutely

"I'm assuming you want to avoid buying from knowledgeable dealers and organizations like the Liberty Seated Coin Club and the dealers who advertise in the magazine and website? Since they won't be underpricing?"

Answer: I don't have any contacts in this business nor do I subscribe to any industry publications. I'm certainly open to suggestions on reputable dealers. Thank you for the introduction to the Liberty Seated Coin Club, but I have to ask: since when does looking for good deals in soft markets seem unreasonable?

Also thank you for the helpful suggestion on the grey sheets. I've been reviewing the auction sale prices on PCGS but never considered NGC. Most come from heritage auctions but it is my understanding that the sale price doesn't include the %15 buyers premium.

Again thank you for the helpful reply!
-Mike


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Fuzzy317's Avatar
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 Posted 11/18/2016  07:26 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Fuzzy317 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
MikeF,

I don't actually know why your thread was deleted, and there may be reasons I am not seeing.

The counterfeit sections are for reporting counterfeits, not asking if they are real or having a discussion about them. Discussions are for other sections.
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MikeF's Avatar
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 Posted 11/18/2016  07:35 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MikeF to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
No worries. Thank you for looking into it.
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scopru's Avatar
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5029 Posts
 Posted 11/18/2016  08:29 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add scopru to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My opinion about your strategy would be this: If you're just flipping coins then whatever makes you money is a good strategy. More research into the series by Year MM and grade may give you opportunity to have larger return though.
If you are looking to build a collection then your strategy is great if that is how you want to approach it. Everyone on here will have a different opinion about the best way to approach building a collection. And at the same time everyone will tell you there is no wrong way to collect as long as you are happy with the coins you are collecting. And that is a nice group to start your build with.
Edited by scopru
11/18/2016 08:29 am
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dsfreeworld's Avatar
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4337 Posts
 Posted 11/18/2016  08:34 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dsfreeworld to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A few things:

I believe paid above current known retail market for the 1845-P by some percentage. If you're holding long you could be okay but don't expect a profit in the near future considering seller fees on any known platform.

The last 5 auctions of the coin you purchased in PCGS AU50 holders have hammered since December 2015 at an average of $1,194. The last sale was July 2016 for $1,293.

I don't think the market went up 16% in the past 90 days so you're not getting the value you perceive based on this.

Strongly suggest that you research major auction houses including HA, DLRC, S&B and others as well as The Bay sold listings to ensure you're not overvaluing a rare undervalued issue.

Next is the approach you're taking which I am not questioning but merely trying to asses. Yes, 24,500 minted for the 1845-P is low but the rarity rating is only a 4.6 with 1,800 known survivors. I am not saying that this is equivalent to say a 192x peace or Morgan dollar but its not at the upper echelon of rarity either. Now if you get into a PCGS MS60 or better on the '45-P you're down to 25 known coins and your rarity goes to a 9.0 (out of 10).

Lastly:


Opinions-Needed:-Ebay-Seated-Liberty-Buying-Strategy
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MikeF's Avatar
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 Posted 11/18/2016  08:49 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MikeF to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
dsfreeworld
The last 5 auctions of the coin you purchased in PCGS AU50 holders have hammered since December 2015 at an average of $1,194. The last sale was July 2016 for $1,293.


The $1,293 was a sale by heritage auctions. Am I correct in my understanding that the 15% buyers premium is NOT included in the sale price?

*** Edited by Staff to add quote tags. Please use them in the future. Posts are very difficult to read without them.***
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MikeF's Avatar
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 Posted 11/18/2016  09:13 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MikeF to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@scopru, I understand but it's always nice to get varying opinions from knowledgeable folks. These are long-term purchases that I plan to hand down to my heirs.

And since Fuzzy has given me the ok, here is the coin listing on ebay. http://www.ebay.com/itm/391404693412
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BH1964's Avatar
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10982 Posts
 Posted 11/18/2016  09:15 am  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Heritage's 17.5% Buyer's Premium IS included in the sale price.
ANA #R3154474
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moxking's Avatar
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17900 Posts
 Posted 11/18/2016  09:15 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The 17.5% Is included in their sold prices. You might not know it unless you have won lots with them. It is listed on their site.
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MikeF's Avatar
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 Posted 11/18/2016  09:22 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MikeF to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well then, looks like my next purchase will be from heritage auctions. OUCH!
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BH1964's Avatar
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 Posted 11/18/2016  10:20 am  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Well then, looks like my next purchase will be from Heritage Auctions. OUCH!


They say buy the book before you buy the coin. If the coin you bought was the one that sold this week on ebay I would cancel the sale or return it. It's about $400 overpriced IMO. Don't fret just keep researching and learning.
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GR58's Avatar
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11951 Posts
 Posted 11/18/2016  11:11 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GR58 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Finding good deals on ebay is possible, but you should know what your
doing ....should do your research.

Jumping into the hobby and buying higher priced coins means there is
a good chance you will not get good deals.

Buying coins as a investment is very hard to do. You have to know
what the coins your buying will sell for, and find a system that will
let you buy as close to that price ..or less. Some dealers have trouble
doing that consistently.

Greysheet on a 1845 Seated dollar AU50 is $1275. A dealer would pay
a customer less than Greysheet, maybe in the $900 range.

Plus .. price guides ... are only guides. As others have posted you should
check sold auction listings, to find the range you should be at.

Coin collecting should be ..because you love coins. Yes you should learn
how to purchase coins at good prices. Most collectors hope that if and
when their coins get sold, it is at a profit or at least get what they paid for them. Many times when someone inherits a collection they take it to a coin
shop and take what ever is offered. Unless the coins were bought at a good
prices and/or held for a long time ... the offer a coin shop will make is much
less than was paid.
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