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Previewing The Coin Market In 2017: A Long-Term Outlook For The Hobby

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CCFPress's Avatar
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 Posted 12/28/2016  10:44 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add CCFPress to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
CoinWorld - To open 2017, Steve Roach tackles the appeal of rare coins and why they command the hobby's attention. Below is the fourth and final segment of his extensive look at the rare coin market as it exists today and what may garner attention in the coming year.

Previewing-The-Coin-Market-In-2017:-A-Long-Term-Outlook-For-The-Hobby

As the stock market reaches for record heights and precious metal prices stay at relatively stable levels, one wonders where the rare coin market is headed in 2017. With all of the potential for change under a new presidential administration, many are optimistic but cautious; hesitant to make any major changes in their investment strategies and perhaps waiting for the right time to buy rare coins.

Will established collectors come out and buy rare coins in 2017? Will new collectors and investors enter the rare coin market, increasing demand?

If you're interested in stepping up your rare coin game, or if you're entering the rare coin marketplace for the first time, you should look at the rare coin market as it exists today and seek to understand the pitfalls and possibilities inherent in rare coin investing. Smart coin buying today requires at least an awareness of the changes that might impact the future when it comes time to sell.

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Dustin6's Avatar
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 Posted 12/28/2016  11:18 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Dustin6 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks for the article. 2017 will be interesting!
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moxking's Avatar
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 Posted 12/28/2016  6:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yes, we live in fast and interesting times...
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oriole's Avatar
Canada
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 Posted 12/28/2016  7:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add oriole to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It is all very well to focus on the really rare coins, but there needs to be a huge collector base for the lower grade ones in order to draw on for the one in a thousand who join the tops ranks. Just like a pyramid. If there were only 100 coin collectors in the US, nobody would pay a $1 million for anything. Coins would go begging.
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Joe2007's Avatar
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 Posted 12/28/2016  7:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Joe2007 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The economy is the elephant in the room here holding back millennials from collecting in any meaningful way. With prices rising in housing, education, & healthcare at rates that far exceed inflation it should be no surprise that many simply cannot afford to even consider collecting.
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oriole's Avatar
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 Posted 12/28/2016  8:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add oriole to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Right, @Joe2007. If there are fewer millennials coming in, the market as a whole will drop, including for rare coins.
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joeysanders627's Avatar
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 Posted 12/29/2016  03:36 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add joeysanders627 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
One particularly jarring graphic showed a decline in the numismatic customer base over the past decade paired with declining sales volume. The Mint confirmed the statistics seen in numismatic publications and hobby organizations like the American Numismatic Association: the people that buy coins are largely white males; few collectors are women and even fewer are non-white.


How true. I've been to a few coin shows and it is very much like the Republican Party fundraisers and conventions that I attend. It is mainly populated by old white people.

The problem is that these old white males are going to take the hobby with them instead of understanding that they need to appeal to different audiences for the hobby to thrive. It starts from the top. The Mint does not try to appeal to women or minorities. It trickles down to the rest of the hobby.

In fact, you really don't want to. There is a section of this website I stay away from because I know that many of you are not people I would ever want to hang around with. Some of your opinions are reprehensible. I stayed. How many other nonwhites and women left this site because of it?

I will definitely stay away from that section again if The Mint ever decides to release a President Obama coin. What a great opportunity to interest African Americans into buying coins. I have a feeling you are going to drive them away.

You know you are going to. You guys are very predictable. God forbid that Harriet Tubman is going to be on the twenty dollar bill. What's wrong? Are there not enough old white males on our currency? Don't worry. I think you guys will be okay.

Many of you, on this site, are dealers. Think about how many more customers you would have if you appealed to different customer bases and more. It is definitely in your financial interests. So why have many of you not done anything about it? Uh huh.
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twslisa's Avatar
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 Posted 12/29/2016  1:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add twslisa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Without digressing into politics or debate, there are some really good points in the previous post. The people at the one and only coin show I've attended, and the fellow customers I've seen in most coin shops I visit, tend to be older white men. Not a lot of women, only a few people under 30, and, in a city with a rather large Latino population, VERY few people of color.

It can't be blamed on economics. Lots of very young people who don't even own a home yet have extensive collections of other kinds--move memorabilia, comics, etc. There is disposable income in the younger demographic; they're just not spending it on coins.

As people who are interested in the future of the hobby (and the value of our collections), what can we be doing to draw in a wider, younger, more diverse range of new collectors?
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scopru's Avatar
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 Posted 12/29/2016  3:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add scopru to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Nice broad net you cast joey. However, I think the tone of your post and innuendo in it is better suited to the same section of this site that you speak ill of.

twlisa I agree the discussion needs to be what can we do to draw more people in. I could not care less what demographic they belong to as long as we get "butts in the seats" so to speak.

I went to a coin show last month and was really impressed by diversity of people I saw there as dealers and customers. However, I will not for a minute think that is the norm, although it is promising!

As for young - I have several and their time and money is spent on technology and things that have more immediate reward vs. time spent gaining knowledge in numismatics. One of mine doesn't even use money - instead it is all on the card. So I can easily see why this hobby may not interest many young people. And that is the crux of the matter- what is the hook that will get people interested. And that has been a discussion on many threads here.
Edited by scopru
12/29/2016 3:14 pm
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twslisa's Avatar
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 Posted 12/29/2016  3:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add twslisa to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
One huge draw for me with coins is the history. I just got my hands on a prooflike Morgan, MS64. Someone back in 1881, likely out west, got this coin fairly fresh out of the mint and put it aside, kept it safe and separate from other coins. I find myself trying to picture that person and the world he or she lived in. Was she someone like me, who maybe got it as a gift from a grandparent or parent, and treasured it because of where it came from?

Not a lot of young people are history geeks, either, which is a darned shame. If more people cared about history we might sidestep a few of our previous mistakes (course we'd just make all new ones).

Probably the one thing that would draw people in is plain old greed. More mainstream news items about those coins that someone found in pocket change and sold for the kind of money that could put a kid through college.
Edited by twslisa
12/29/2016 3:36 pm
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scopru's Avatar
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 Posted 12/29/2016  3:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add scopru to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I find myself trying to picture that person and the world he or she lived in.


I do the same thing.
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cladking's Avatar
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 Posted 12/29/2016  4:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add cladking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
2017 will provide a little taste of the direction of the hobby but it will be 2018 before things get booming. Like a roller coaster the hobby moves slowest at the tops. You can be lulled into a false sense of security as you approach the gradients. Keep your hands inside the car and hold onto your hats.
Time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.
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jillabean's Avatar
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 Posted 12/29/2016  8:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jillabean to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Without digressing into politics or debate, there are some really good points in the previous post. The people at the one and only coin show I've attended, and the fellow customers I've seen in most coin shops I visit, tend to be older white men. Not a lot of women, only a few people under 30, and, in a city with a rather large Latino population, VERY few people of color.

It can't be blamed on economics. Lots of very young people who don't even own a home yet have extensive collections of other kinds--move memorabilia, comics, etc. There is disposable income in the younger demographic; they're just not spending it on coins.

As people who are interested in the future of the hobby (and the value of our collections), what can we be doing to draw in a wider, younger, more diverse range of new collectors?


What got me interested in coin collecting was two fold.

1) My dad and my uncle collected and my dad helped me start a collection as a kid. I only learned the basics (like don't touch the coins, don't clean the coins, what a proof is vs. a circulated coin, etc). Mostly I just liked to look at my "treasure in a book."

My dad sold his collection (and mine with my permission years ago). I don't know why, but it was also about the time he bought into what would be his business venture.

Years passed, but that early impression stuck with me and I've always liked coins. For years I would look at change and pull out mostly silver coins. I never really had the money to buy coins though and even then I put off collecting because I lost my dad to cancer... I lost my mentor to guide me. My boyfriend however, gave me the gentle push to get me started (he's awesome BTW).

Next I needed this...

2) Disposal income. I only just started seriously considering collecting again when I reached the milestone of having 20% of my income go into retirement, I had my emergency fund set aside, and I bought my little house. That took a lot of time and there were setbacks. Of course, I wanted to collect like my dad used to: nice looking, silver American coins. I could have collected something less costly and I guess I did with my junk silver, but my real desire was those old silver dollars, half dollars, etc from my favorite period in history to study, the time between (and including) the World Wars.

Starting to seriously collect probably happens later in life when people have disposable income. But to get there, I think coin collecting is something that has to be instilled in young people... kids. Plant that seed in children or grandchildren, nieces or nephews. Maybe even something like school outreach on career days.
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Joe2007's Avatar
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 Posted 12/29/2016  11:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Joe2007 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What section of the site are people calling "toxic"? This place is very civilized compared to the rest of the web, plenty of hate on both side of the political spectrum out there.
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dd27's Avatar
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 Posted 12/30/2016  01:11 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dd27 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
What section of the site are people calling "toxic"? This place is very civilized compared to the rest of the web, plenty of hate on both side of the political spectrum out there.


There was a 2016 Election thread, but the moderators/admins wisely decided to delete it.
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CSOTUS's Avatar
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 Posted 12/30/2016  08:46 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add CSOTUS to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
While everyone here has varying opinions on numerous topics, introducing politics and/or religion is a bad idea. I am glad that I have been slightly absent this year because had I been active I would have clicked out of curiosity and likely been disappointed by the conversation. Nevertheless, it is wise that the election topic was delete.

I am a member of a few different collecting websites, so I do have something to compare to. The group here at CCF are generally very informative as well as sincere. Of course given the size of this community there are some that you may not agree with, but in my experience that number is lower than some of the other websites I frequent.

To get back on topic; I am not old enough to know the cycle coin collection goes through with different generations, but I assume that each generation of new collectors have the same fears that are brought up here. millenials are no different than gen-x in that they will buy cars, houses, have jobs and look for a hobby. Some will collect movie memorabilia, some will collect fire king, and some will collect coins. I agree that the US Mint needs to expand the base and add more coins that appeal to the different nationalities, ages and genders of this hobby but don't think this will happen quickly if at all. The mint will not change if they are making ridiculous amounts of money on the same thing year in year out.
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