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 Replies: 42 / Views: 6,065 |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3234 Posts |
Quote: I frequently see ebay listings flogging the pretenders as the real RA4 die. The real one is very, very scarce. So Rob,..approximately how many RA4 are out there that you've come across..? Got to get this down to PCGS soon..  . Edited by DEVLEC
03/08/2017 1:45 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
1442 Posts |
Two sold on ebay on Feb.18 and Mar.3...so must be very common  just joking... bosox puts them at 0.5-1.0% by my calculation, that converts to seeing one on ebay every 3-4 months (in any/all conditions). Fair warning...the next nice one is all mine, since two EF-AU (damaged) just slipped through my hands  |
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Moderator
 Canada
10460 Posts |
Quote:
Fair warning...the next nice one is all mine Assuming, of course, you win it... "Discovery follows discovery, each both raising and answering questions, each ending a long search, and each providing the new instruments for a new search." -- J. Robert OppenheimerContent of this post is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses...0/deed.en_USMy eBay store
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3234 Posts |
Quote:by my calculation, that converts to seeing one on ebay every 3-4 months (in any/all conditions). Fair enough then..and with your calculation, we should have had ~ 20 FVBS come across our sights in the last 5 years.. So definitely a lot to go around for all of us..and that also means that I can get another one..in 6 or 8 months.. |
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Valued Member
United States
302 Posts |
This variety should turn up every 3-4 months? Really? Somebody forgot to tell that to the bidders on the last two. I think Rob's assessment of the rarity is correct and it was just a fluke that two turned up so close together. We'll probably have to wait another year (or more) to see the next one.
Edited by JHax
03/08/2017 8:39 pm
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Valued Member
Canada
491 Posts |
In the last 3 years I have only seen 3 of them show up. This includes many coin shows and auctions that I have been too. Funny that all 3 I have seen have been on E-Bay. I think JHax post is right as to when the next one might show up. Maybe it's scarcer then we think?
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1442 Posts |
I feel like I engaged in a bidding war on the FVBS with someone here...I'm getting.....  From Rob Turner's book, approximately 0.67% of 1858s are RA4. With ~ 116 1858s posted on ebay every 3 months, there should be 1 RA4 showing up every 3-4 months (that's where that came from). If the experience of collectors is that one shows up only once a year on ebay, then 0.2% of all 1858s are RA4, not 0.67%. In other words, instead of 1:150, the rarity would be closer to 1:500. Interestingly, the last 3 months were FULL VINE months on ebay. There were 6 FV that sold (2 of them RA4). I bought two (an NGC AU58, ICG VF35) and lost the bids on the two RA4s (an ICG EF45 corroded, raw AU cleaned). The remaining two were a VF30 scratched, and a VF20 corroded.  Edited by canadian-varieties
03/08/2017 10:31 pm
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Valued Member
United States
302 Posts |
Rob's statistics are approximations, to be sure. I think overall he did pretty well, considering his sample size. RA4 is very scarce, whether one pegs it at 0.2 or 0.67%. The full vine die that isn't very scarce is RA3. I suspect it represents at least 90% of the full vines and must have been a pretty robust die.
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
5591 Posts |
I think that Rob's estimates were pretty accurate. Research and data collection preceded the publications by years. Once the calculations/estimates were down on paper and the book(s) came out, further random accumulations and data continued to be supplied to him and relatively verified the initial figures published. Some very scarce varieties could be modified by a single discovery and further research has been ongoing and passed along to contributors. As I stated from my post in the thread about 58's and 59's above, any correlation between ebay data and populations/scarcity is EXTREMELY misleading and I advise folks not to bite on that hook. Edited by okiecoiner
03/09/2017 07:53 am
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Valued Member
United States
302 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1224 Posts |
If you had the opportunity to buy this coin in AU50+ what would be considered a good price?
I saw this coin last weekend and I let the owner know what he had ( He is a friend ) The coin I'am talking about is very nice and is problem free with exceptional eye appeal.
it has a hint of red remaining is lustrous and could very well grade higher. I will be meeting with him again on the weekend and hopefully make him an offer, all opinions on a fair offer would be appreciated.
Unfortunately I never had a camera to take pictures at the time and we never discussed price but he had it marked at $600.00 on the 2X2.
Cheers, Bill
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1442 Posts |
A fair offer would be Full Trends $350 if its AU or $600 if its MS.
That being said, its already worth double trends (a brillo pad scrubbed AU already selling for $600) , and will eventually be worth triple or maybe even more...
Edited by canadian-varieties
03/09/2017 2:21 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5591 Posts |
If the coin that you are talking about is the 15 stem, full vine, then I'd go with something above what was in the 2011 Charlton. These are scarce. The prices from CV above appear to be for a vanilla 1858.
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Valued Member
United States
493 Posts |
Was just reading through this discussion. I guess I'm one of the handful of people that actually collect both 58' and 9/8's by die pair. I can concur that the RA4 seems to be the hardest to find of the full vine group if I look at what I have in my collection. I would offer up this thought however, die pairs I have not managed to find yet are equally as difficult if not harder to acquire than the full vine group. Based on what I know of current die pairs (not reverses), I see my completion rate as follows.
RA = 100%
RB = 92%
RC = 75%
RD = 95%
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Valued Member
United States
302 Posts |
Yes, Dan, I completely agree. The same can be said for the 1859 N9 die pairs. There are some where I have recorded only one or two examples. From the standpoint of evaluation the rare die pairs in all groups present a challenge. How does one price a rare RB die pair or an 1859 N9 die pair? The RA (full vine group) was put into the Charlton catalog as a single listing, but that, of course, is based on its most available member, RA3.
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Replies: 42 / Views: 6,065 |
First Page
Posted 03/08/2017 5:21 pm
