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 Replies: 9 / Views: 2,740 |
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Valued Member
United States
275 Posts |
Curious what the community thinks about the survival estimates (and therefore rarity rating) on the PCGS CoinFacts website.. It is obviously a tough thing to get right, but are they hit or miss, within a certain percentage would you guess? More reliable for some series than others? Any idea how the figures are sourced or calculated? Is PCGS the standard, or Heritage, or is there some other recognized expert group, or is it up to the collector to just make their own assessment based on the myriad of data points? So many questions...
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Rest in Peace
United States
17900 Posts |
Heritage is more accurate. When I buy a Coin that has only sold twice in 14 years in grade, that's a rare coin. Especially in a commonly collected series.
Lord knows how many coins have been resubmitted.
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Valued Member
 United States
275 Posts |
Are you sayig Heritage has lower survival estimates and are more accurate? Are they also known at times to be higher and more accurate?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1261 Posts |
Quote:
or is it up to the collector to just make their own assessment based on the myriad of data points? I think this is the answer, at least for me. I look at PCGS Coinfacts, look at their auction history and population numbers, read the narrative. I also go on the Heritage website and look at auction history data. I try to find reference data from books (online searches, etc.) There are numerous sources I go to. I will say that pop numbers and survival numbers are only part of the story. Some series like Half Cents, Half Dimes etc might have lower survival numbers than other like Morgan's but there are a lot less collecting those series so that plays into it as well. It really takes studying and a good deal of experience to understand the rarity and true scarcity of coins. There are some coins that might have higher survival numbers but trying to find a nice, problem free example is a real challenge. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12057 Posts |
PCGS survival numbers (and population numbers in general) are mostly inaccurate, with a few exceptions for very rare coins. Just checking the number of ebay listings for a coin can help debunk some of the "low survival" myths. The survival numbers are a flat-out guess, and population is vulnerable to crackout-and-resubmit which inflates counts. Member ANA - EAC - TNA - SSDC - CCT #890 "Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." -- Louis D. Brandeis Edited by paralyse
11/27/2017 8:16 pm
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Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
A survival rate of 5,000 isn't much if 6,000 people want one. I think "survival estimates" are an interesting cocktail party topic, with no bearing on reality.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3479 Posts |
I also hang out in a Seated dollar forum. Many sld's have survival estimates of 1,200 to 2,000 according to PCGS. With all the crackouts over the years, I have no doubt the numbers for business strikes are inflated to the tune of 10%-20%. Folks who crack them out get lazy and don't send the broken holder back into the TPG. Also many circulated proofs end up in business strike holders. Edited by MikeF
11/27/2017 8:43 pm
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Rest in Peace
United States
17900 Posts |
After you use Heritage sold data for specific coins in specific grades you will learn two important facts. The first is that a TPG s listed grade is only a starting point for value. The exact "same" coin in the exact same grade from the same TPG can vary by 100's of % because of eye appeal. You will also learn how frequently a Coin sells in the last decade or so. The availability trumps the census numbers. If you filter by most recent you see how long the intervals are between sales. A specific coin that sells dozens per year isn't one you have to worry about finding. If there are years between sales, you need to be more forceful with your bids. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
The survival estimates are usually pretty decent. They have their limitations in the sense that they're educated guesses and some probably do need to be updated a little as new information has come out. Really the criticisms of survival estimates is really more just about that type of information as it's really just an educated guess.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1959 Posts |
Agree with basebal21. It is what it is. An educated guess. The folks at PCGS realize there are a certain amount of resubmittals. I'm sure that is taken into account. At the end of the day it is, and always will be, an educated guess. I really enjoy analyzing these numbers and am glad they are making an attempt at determining the survival estimate. They get a lot closer than I can.
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Replies: 9 / Views: 2,740 |
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Posted 11/27/2017 6:46 pm
