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Could Someone Explain This?

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dcv's Avatar
United States
142 Posts
 Posted 06/16/2008  02:04 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add dcv to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Admittedly, I am inexperienced so my guess is that I am just missing something.

I have seen a situation that relates to several coins, but I will just pick one to make my example.

I spend a fair amount of time looking through the PCGS Price Guide. Now in other forums, it has already been established that the PCGS Price Guide may be a bit inflated or "optimistic" as it was put by other members. So, when I look through it I take it with a grain of salt and mentally subtract about 25%-30% to gain a ballpark assessment of a coin's value.

Today I was looking through it and noticed that they value an MS63 2007-P Jefferson nickel at $8. OK, discounting the PCGS price as I do...this would translate to between $5 and $6.

At this stage of the game, aren't MS63 grades quite common among 2007 coins?

I mean if someone bought a brand new roll of 2007-P nickels when they first hit the banks, wouldn't more than half of them be MS63's and many be even higher?

Is that roll that someone bought last year for $2, really worth $200? I am guessing not so can someone provide the piece of the puzzle that is obviously absent from my reasoning?

Is this a flaw in the PCGS Guide or in my assumption that most new coins would grade that high?


On a different, but related note, there was on other thing that baffled me. On the very next line in the PCGS guide, they showed that the same nickel with "Full Steps" was worth only $5. Worth $3 more because it doesn't have full steps? I am so lost!



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KurtS's Avatar
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5318 Posts
 Posted 06/16/2008  02:21 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KurtS to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Is that roll that someone bought last year for $2, really worth $200?
I seriously doubt it, because what kind of demand would drive a $8 price on a basic ms grade 2007 nickel? Would PCGS plastic help?
Since there's little demand, I'd expect a proportional price. As an example, Statehood Quarters actually have collector demand, yet a local dealer sells me those from mint rolls for $0.55 each. So if that 2007 nickel is a clean BU, I might offer $0.10.
Edited by KurtS
06/16/2008 02:31 am
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dcv's Avatar
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142 Posts
 Posted 06/16/2008  04:04 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dcv to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Kurt- Let me make sure I am understanding what you are saying. I mean first of all it seems you are agreeing with me that the price is off. But are you suggesting that being in a PCGS slab could make that big a difference. 80x in this case? WOW! These people have some clout don't they?

Any clue or guess on why the "FS" version is listed as less valuable? That must be an error, isn't it?
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KurtS's Avatar
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 Posted 06/16/2008  04:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KurtS to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
"But are you suggesting..." No, that was a bit of dry humor.

FS--less valuable? OK, my offer's $.07
Edited by KurtS
06/16/2008 04:23 am
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dcv's Avatar
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142 Posts
 Posted 06/16/2008  04:17 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add dcv to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Oh. Well that's a relief! Sorry I didn't catch it. (good humor...dense audience).
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GO's Avatar
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 Posted 06/16/2008  08:21 am  Show Profile   Check GO's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add GO to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As far as I understand....PCGS pricing is based on what the highest possible price has ever been sold for each individual coin.

So because someone bought one for $8 doesn't mean every single one is $8. However that simple piece of plastic with "PCGS" on it gives a sense of security and it's all too easy to sell these site unseen for the trust in the companies grading capabilities.
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eaglefoot's Avatar
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 Posted 06/16/2008  08:39 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add eaglefoot to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Actually.....pcgs.....ignore prices listed......Redbook....ignore prices listed...Bluebook...ignore prices listed...........and Greysheets aren't easy for everyone to get......
So, obviously, "price guides" found any and everywhere are to be ignored and when they go to print vs. reading it six months later for gold and silver values would be fool hardy.......
Other than following ebay..............there really IS no such thing as a reliable "price guide". Something to carry around and accurately look up prices for all ones various coins.......
(auction listings are also unreliable I've been told, because it's the "highest" a coin went for at a particular time........for instance, a New York auction winning bid for any particular coin, won't mean that's what my coin is worth here in Topeka, Kansas)
So, I would say......the larger question here is.......THEN WHAT IN THE WORLD COULD SOMEONE PURCHASE, TO PUT A "PRICE VALUE" ON THEIR COLLECTION ?
From average ole coins with no gold or silver........to Classic ones.....to Ultra Moderns...?
What can one "run out and buy", that will give accurate prices for coins ?..(obvioulsly not including the ever changing roller coaster market of Silver & Gold)
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