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Silver Declining Rapidly, Is It A Good Investment?

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e-baguio's Avatar
Philippines
107 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  10:20 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add e-baguio to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers

why is silver declining rapidly? I have observed it had decline to 1.5USD within just a few days...and continue to be..

i have read some articles that silver would continue to increase because it has a huge demand, some saying China alone would consume the world silver so this makes it rarer than gold.

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MorganNoob's Avatar
United States
533 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  10:25 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MorganNoob to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It has pulled back lately mostly because the dollar as recovered a bit. IMHO, I think silver will go higher before it goes much lower.
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e-baguio's Avatar
Philippines
107 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  11:01 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add e-baguio to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

I'm no knowledgeable about why is it that the rise of USD makes the silver lower
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jbuck's Avatar
United States
188102 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  11:15 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Because a stronger currency lowers the price paid for goods and services with that currency.

Think of it this way...

One can argue that silver, gold, and other commodities are pretty much worth what they were worth fifty years ago. For example, an ounce of silver has always been traded for a certain amount of food, clothing, or some other commodity regardless of the value of the dollar. It is an argument for the use of a gold or silver standard keep the value of a dollar stable.

When the dollar is weak, prices go up. As the dollar weakened, other things, not just silver, got more expensive. Commodities are usually seen as a safe bet when a currency weakens. The dollar could crash and become worthless, but the same amount of silver would still be traded for the same amount of some other commodity.

Clear a mud?
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MorganNoob's Avatar
United States
533 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  11:31 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MorganNoob to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well, thats why the price here has gone down. Personally I think having some investment bullion is never a bad idea, and unlike a stock gold and/or silver will never go to $0... I can't decide what I think silver is going to do...

Why does strength of the USD make the price of silver go down you ask...
Well, look at it this way: imagine hypothetically that $1 USD = 2 British Pounds (GBP) and the 'price' of silver is $17 USD/oz, or 8.5 GBP. If the USD strengthens in relation to the GBP so that $1 USD = 1.95 GBP the 'price' for 1oz of silver would be lower in the US but higher in Britain.

That is (in a nutshell) what I mean.
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jbuck's Avatar
United States
188102 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  11:34 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Personally I think having some investment bullion is never a bad idea, and unlike a stock gold and/or silver will never go to $0.


Quote:
Well, look at it this way: imagine hypothetically that $1 USD = 2 British Pounds (GBP) and the 'price' of silver is $17 USD/oz, or 8.5 GBP. If the USD strengthens in relation to the GBP so that $1 USD = 1.95 GBP the 'price' for 1oz of silver would be lower in the US but higher in Britain
Good explanation!
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Australia
3831 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  11:51 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add gxseries to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
That's not the only case. The supply level of silver actually dropped as the large silver producers, India and China decided not to sell in the international market for a couple of years (if I read it right somewhere), hence reducing the supply available. That doesn't mean that other countries are not ramping up production levels, in particular Russia is trying to increase production at this current high silver prices.
My partial coin collection http://www.omnicoin.com/collection/gxseries
My numismatics articles and collection: http://www.gxseries.com/numis/numis_index.htm
Regularly updated at least once a month.
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eaglefoot's Avatar
United States
6326 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  11:58 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add eaglefoot to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Also look at "precious metals" in 50 and/or 100 year increments for it's future value indicator and potential value.......not the roller coaster ride in between !
Just my Two Cents.....
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huntercav's Avatar
United States
44 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  3:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add huntercav to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I cant agree more with Eaglefoot. One of the most difficult things to do with any investment is to divest yourself from the emotions surrounding it. If one looks too closely at the day to day moves of a market, you lose sight of the big picture. To compound this you generally have to take into account where you get your information from. I am becoming more skeptical by the passing day as to the motivations of the financial press. An hour watching CNBC is like watching a pep rally.

Look at the headlines of the last week. In one fell swoop, the US gov't just doubled the national deficit with the Fannie/Freddie bailout. How will that ever be paid back? It is easy when you have control over the amount of money that is produced. The problem though is that the dollars being created lose their value dramatically, particularly when held up in comparison to something tangible and somewhat rare.

In a few years time we will look back on 17$ Silver and 925$ Gold as bargains.
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Australia
3831 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  3:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add gxseries to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You people are absolutely crazy if you base prices on historical performance. That is NOT how prices are determined. If you know your economics 101, prices is determined by nothing more than supply and demand. For instance the US government is determined to get rid of lead from PC related products which silver is found to be a suitable replacement, which in turn raised demand for silver and reduced demand for lead. Platinum prices wouldn't be this high either if the automobile industries weren't mandated to use platinum for catalysts. Can you imagine if alternatives are found? Or more sources are to be found? Prices fall. Good example would be aluminum.
My partial coin collection http://www.omnicoin.com/collection/gxseries
My numismatics articles and collection: http://www.gxseries.com/numis/numis_index.htm
Regularly updated at least once a month.
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eaglefoot's Avatar
United States
6326 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  4:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add eaglefoot to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Whooooaaaa Nellie !....
1 oz $5.00 gold piece "back then" in the 1800's, only bought $5.00 worth of goods. Now a 1oz $5.00 gold piece will buy you almost $1,000.00 dollars worth of goods. That's all I meant with the comparison and "increments" historically.

Well.....demand will be higher because of the amount of people in this world increasing every 50 years or so. 50 years ago the U.S. and planet Earth didn't have half the population we do now. Demand WILL increase with more people and more technology to find various uses for it.......is all I meant really I guess.......
And no, I would never suggest that "prices are based on historical perfermance".......there are new uses for old materials ALL THE TIME. Something may come down the pike where massive amounts of silver, for example, are needed for the world to use on it and the supply isn't there to meet it maybe ....
Or a major superpower falls like the Soviet Union did and it took Russia many years to come out of it....they still are trying.
Economic woes or huge world wide disasters......or just simple ol' industry inventing something new......
Okay....I'll stop now....
Edited by eaglefoot
07/29/2008 4:54 pm
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snowman's Avatar
United States
1840 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  4:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add snowman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Precious metals will just keep going up at astronomical levels, just like housing prices did and tech stocks before that. Yeah right. Failure to identify the pattern could get people burned.
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QuickSilver's Avatar
United Kingdom
1077 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  4:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add QuickSilver to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
gx series, Do you really say "aluminum" in Australia? Or was that for the benefit of our American cousins?
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jbuck's Avatar
United States
188102 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  5:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
1 oz $5.00 gold piece "back then" only bought $5.00 worth of goods. Now a 1oz $5.00 gold piece will buy you almost $1,000.00 dollars worth of goods
One cannot just compare yesterday's dollars to today's dollars without adjusting for all of the factors involved.

This will get you started.
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eaglefoot's Avatar
United States
6326 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  5:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add eaglefoot to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Temporary investors in gold or silver and people playing "the market" will ABSOLUTELY LOSE THEIR KISTERS !!.....That is an up and down rollercoaster ride that can "tank" for a few years and then "dramatically rise" for a few years.......NO ARGUEMENT FROM ME ON THAT ONE !
But past "your" lifetime.....and in terms of many many many decades later, for your decendants to enjoy, the gold and silver Great-Great Grandpa aquired 80 years ago ?.....Yeah...I'm cool with that and confident that it'll be just fine !!
"Investing for your retirement".......no.....not a "safe" bet.....but 50, 100, 150 years from now......yeah....it'll be waaaaayyyy up IMHO !
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eaglefoot's Avatar
United States
6326 Posts
 Posted 07/29/2008  5:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add eaglefoot to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Jbuck....

I almost got 4 hrs. last night !..
Should I go home now ?.....

Now, where did I park my truck and where is home >>>?
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