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 Replies: 15 / Views: 1,508 |
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Rest in Peace
United States
18456 Posts |
Poll Question
Lets just say a 19th century classic silver coin with a mintage of say 150,000 .
Between the following ; how many do you think survived to the present day ?
* Melted by government
* On bottom of ocean (ship wreck)
* Buried in ground, in cave, etc. and forgotten .
* Melted by private smelters .
* Individual lost coins in ground .(3-4''down)
* Lost in swimming holes , lakes ,beaches. rivers ,etc.etc.
Comments please !
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
There is absolutely no way to come up with average survival rates. What it is matters, it's mintage compared to others in the series, the actual time frame, denomination and so on all play a role in what the likely outcome would be.
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
I think it IS possible to make an estimation of average survival rates for a particular type, but a lot of research is needed to be somewhat accurate.
For this reason the question asked by the OP is a valid one.
One place to start looking is for populations for slabbed coins, but I think that in this case, populations are for coins that have been recorded, and most submitters would naturally send in higher condition coins, such that higher valued coins would justify the grading fees.
When comparing total population rates for recorded for all conditions, against a survival rate for all conditions I think there would be a bias towards higher condition coins. Lower condition coins would have a tendency to be less recorded.
On major factor is the fact that mints recall coins, so that new coins can be struck from them. Perhaps there are some stats. in the Mint records for bullion recall.
Perhaps the ANS can provide some information on research that has already been done on this subject that can be found in published articles.
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Having said all of this, I will make a rank guesstimate.
I will say that for U.S. classic 19th Century silver of all denominations 1850 - 1900, the survival rate is around 5% to 10%.
From this guess, it follows that in a mintage of 150,000, perhaps 5,000 may have survived , in all grades.
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I am aware that some work has already been done on this subject by the British Museum on the survival rates of medieval hammered coins, based on archeological find sites and metal detector recovery. Some work has also been done by the BM on the survival rates of ancient Roman gold aureii. It makes for interesting reading.
Edited by sel_69l
01/25/2019 5:24 pm
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Valued Member
 United States
461 Posts |
PCGS coin facts website lists estimated survival rates for many US coins including virtually all 19th Century coins by date, mint mark and often variety. The estimates are said to be made by a panel of experts. They are also said to be evolving and incomplete. I find the circulated survival estimates often to be questionable. For example, I have an 1839-O L.S. Dime I acquired 50 years ago for about $1. I would grade it G-4. PCGS estimates that only about 600 survive in all grades. This cannot be true as the issue is easy to find and not expensive in low grades. On the other hand, I have a MS-64 1849 LS dime that PCGS estimates is one of 40 in mint state. I don't know if the estimate is reliable, but it makes me feel good. Other sources confirm that this is a very scarce issue in mint state (to bad about the demand side of supply and demand). I do feel the estimate on mint state survival is likely to be more reliable as mint state coins are more likely to be slabbed and therefore accounted for. Basebal is 100% correct. Numerous factors influence survival, and each issue must be evaluated separately. As another example, 1879-1890 LS half dollars have tiny original mintages ranging from 4,000-12,000. Yet they are not hard to find in mint state grades because people knew the coins were rare when issued, and therefore a high percentage were saved in mint state. Often, the rarest coins in a series are not those with the lowest original mintages. To answer your question, I'd expect the answer to be way less than 75,000. |
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Rest in Peace
 United States
18456 Posts |
Thanks all for replies . I forgot to mention that figures would only be rough estimates and of cause no one can guess an exact number . Also let me clear up , said coin would only a business strike common coin raw and slabbed . I am surprised at the poll results so far ,didn't think half of the mintage would only have survived today . Very interesting survey .  |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1723 Posts |
I voted less than 75000. My thought line is very similar to Sel_69l
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3540 Posts |
I think a LOT of silver coins were melted.
There are fewer collectors. There are fewer coin shops. There are fewer coins being graded (because of expense and availability to have graded).
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Bedrock of the Community
United Kingdom
17911 Posts |
I think 5,000 sounds about right. Remember that coins had a hard life in the 19th century, as can be seen from the very worn Barber and Victorian British silver coins you see in junk trays. Many coins will simply have done their job, got worn out and been withdrawn and melted down.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
Remember that coins had a hard life in the 19th century, Morgans had a hard life? $20 dollar gold had a hard life? Any estimate is dependent upon what it actually was. There is no generic hypothetical estimate that applies across the board, without listing a specific issue it is silly to make random guesses Edited by basebal21
01/25/2019 11:49 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
Morgans are the obvious exception. Average condition testifies to this.
Everything else had a hard time in circulation.
No doubt both Morgans and everything else have been the subject of bullion recovery by the U.S. Mint.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
Morgans are the obvious exception. Average condition testifies to this.
Everything else had a hard time in circulation. No not everything else. That was my point from the start. Bring up a specific issue and we can start to use knowledge to try and come up with a rate. When its a generic statement across all series its just a complete WAG |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
7936 Posts |
Interesting discussion with a lot of good points. I agree with basebal21 that the series probably matters a lot, and with the comments on which series had a "hard life" and wound up getting melted down at higher rate, vs series that were collected, hoarded, etc. from the get-go. Within a series, I would think market price in proportion to mintage is a very good indicator of survival rate. Like an earlier poster, I agree that an estimate of only hundreds of extant examples of common Seated Liberty dimes sounds way off. Just look at how many of them are in play on ebay at any point in time. Edited by tdziemia
01/26/2019 07:29 am
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Valued Member
United States
261 Posts |
I agree with basebal21. Without a denomination it's impossible to make a guess. The first coin that came to my mind is the 1893 Columbian Exposition half. It's said nearly 50% were melted by the government. Of the 50% that remained, what percentage are still left? How many were melted when silver was $40-$50 an ounce? With that said, what percentage of this particular coin are left? 25%-40%? Just my Two Cents. |
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Rest in Peace
United States
18456 Posts |
Beachnut , Exactly what I'm trying to say ,but what about all those other reasons for loss that I listed . Now maybe we're down to about10-20 % .  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7936 Posts |
Quote:
Lower condition coins would have a tendency to be less recorded. Thinking about this comment a little ... There are a tremendous number of low grade coins that trade on ebay. I sometimes wonder if anyone, anywhere has ever tried to keep track. I realize that misses all the other transactions like coin stores, but I also wonder about the proportion of business done in each venue these days. Probably impossible to come up with that. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
Quote:
On major factor is the fact that mints recall coins, so that new coins can be struck from them. Perhaps there are some stats. in the Mint records for bullion recall. There are records on numbers of coins melted down, but they tracked them only by dollar amount , no record of denominations, dates, or mintmarks. |
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Replies: 15 / Views: 1,508 |
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Posted 01/25/2019 5:11 pm
