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Mintage Records To Determine Rarity

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SeatedNut's Avatar
United States
2797 Posts
 Posted 08/25/2008  3:31 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add SeatedNut to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
This was discussed briefly in another thread and I believe more folks could benefit from a larger discussion.

https://goccf.com/t/34462&whichpage=1

The question: Do published mintage figures determine rarity?

To a large extent the answer is yes, but there are exceptions and that's what I would like to address here.

- Morgan and Peace dollars discussed in the linked thread
- Bust half dollars were hoarded during their production years and many nice examples exist today
- In the Lincoln wheat cents there were years that collectors speculated correctly and saved larger than normal quantities of nice examples (31-S comes to mind)

Can others add to the list?
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1sikevo's Avatar
United States
1130 Posts
 Posted 08/25/2008  4:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 1sikevo to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
1883 V nickels w/o cents were hoarded. Even though it's mintage is lower than the w/ cents version, the w/ cents had a lower survivability, resulting in higher prices in the mid to upper grades.
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biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 08/25/2008  6:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
All first year squirrel effect coins, like Buffalos, SVDB, 1917I 25¢.

Classic condemnorative halves.

Any silver coins.
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1sikevo's Avatar
United States
1130 Posts
 Posted 08/25/2008  6:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 1sikevo to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
How about last year? 1909-S IHC have low mintage but high survival compared to the 1877.
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biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 08/26/2008  05:01 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Forgot. That's also squirrel effect.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts
 Posted 08/26/2008  08:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Not sure if you mean rarity in ability to find one or rarity in value. Many problems with your question. For example no one really knows how many of a certain coin is left in existance after a long period of time. Then there is the hoarding situation as noted. Example of that is the low mintage of the 31S Lincoln Cent but the low value since so many hoarded those coins. In the past many people used coins for throwing in wishing wells, melting to make jewlery, placed on RR tracks for fun, pressed into something for a novelty, melted for the metal content, placed in concrete for good luck, thrown in rivers and lakes and many, many more possible distructive methods of getting rid of coins. Also, note the many coins with low mintages that just are not popular for some reason and not sure why. The 1931D Mercury dime is an example of that. 4th Lowest mintage in the entire series and yet not much value.
Then to there is the error coins. Again, no one knows how many of a certain type are out there so the value goes up and down as they are discovered. With error coins rarity is apparently not a good method to determine anything. For example there are probably Double Dies of Lincoln Cents for almost every year. Noticable in "Looking Through Lincoln Cents" by https://www.coppercoins.com Yet it seams like the entire world wants the 55 Double Die Cent and the heck with all the others.
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Prethen's Avatar
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3234 Posts
 Posted 08/26/2008  09:06 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Prethen to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'd have to say, No, not really. The only real exception where this is the case is where the mint produced under 50,000 coins, then you can generally say the coins will be scarce to find. Other than that, it totally depends on the coin and whether collectors hoarded it or not. Even under 50,000 coins, you can see certain examples readily available such that they really don't appear to be "rare".
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Sap's Avatar
Australia
16829 Posts
 Posted 08/26/2008  10:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sap to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The final years of a withdrawn coin denomination or series will also be much scarcer than official mintage figures indicate, because most of the newly minted coins sitting around in the vaults waiting for distribution would go straight back into the melting pots. The USA has two extreme examples of this phenomenon: the 1933 gold $20 (official mintage: 445,000 - surviving specimens: less than 12) and the 1964 Peace dollar (official mintage: 316,076 - surviving specimens: zero).

There are other examples worldwide. The Hong Kong 1941 1 cent had an official mintage of 5 million. These coins were struck in London and split into three shipments bound for the Pacific. But it was wartime - one shipment was sunk, the second was captured by the Japanese (who promptly melted them down for war material). The third never left Britain; it was sent back to the melting pot after the Japanese captured the colony. Only a handful of coins, souvenired by either the Japanese or British smelter workers, survived.

A low survival rate (and therefore rarity) does not always translate into a higher price. A classic example from down under: the official mintages for Australian 20¢ coins for 1983 and 1984 were 55.1 million and 27.8 million respectively - judging by mintages alone, they should be common as dirt. But the entire mintage languished in the vaults for awhile, before they were melted down and recycled - apparently, only one box of 1000 coins from each date were spared, as well as the ones issued in the mint sets (numbers of sets issued were 155,000 and 150,000 respectively). Yet the prices for these coins are little different to those with much higher survival rates.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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wwhitman's Avatar
United States
1415 Posts
 Posted 08/26/2008  10:48 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wwhitman to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There appears to be a great disparity between rarity and value. So depending upon the person acquiring/owning the material will directly derive the value. As Sap points out even thou few examples exist, the value is not affected. This would be driven by demand for the material. I guess the old adage: It's value is determined by what someone will pay for the object.
I am sure that we all own a coin that we would not part with regardless (within reason) of amount. These are coins that are special to us personally.
So it depends why we collect as to the value we assign to our coins and the rarity is only a judge as to our ability to 'find' coins
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