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 Replies: 12 / Views: 1,522 |
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Valued Member
United States
212 Posts |
I'm in a freakishly unusual (for me) and ironic position to buy up a little silver, maybe even gold for the first time, and it just so happens to be when spot prices are falling, but there's also this bizarre shortage. I did manage to get an order in for some bulk dimes before they put the big shipping delays on, and/or froze sales altogether, and I've won some auctions on ebay. But I think I should stop and make sure I'm not doing it foolishly before proceeding any further. First of all, I've never been really interested in bullion or stacking for stacking's sake, but it seems to be a fairly wise investment at this time. So what I've done in these recent buys is sort of a hybrid approach, buying coins in lots and individually, at prices not terribly above spot, either because they're in bulk or because I can tell the coins are better than the ebay seller's camera or skills, and/or they didn't consider the implications of their auctions closing at 4 A.M., ha. My thought is that when silver goes back up, even ugly and common-year coins I bought will be worth more than I'm paying now, and some much more because they're nice and/or key dates. Is that even close to a sound approach, or should numismatics not be considered at all, as an extension of metal prices? Are they fully separate? If anyone would like to answer I'm all ears, or a time-saving link would be just as much appreciated. |
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Valued Member
United States
170 Posts |
At the end of the day, all silver coins will always be at minimum worth that much. And while your approach of investing does indeed make sense from a numismatics standpoint, stackers (so far as I know) don't care about condition or rarity (again, assuming that it's not wildly out of proportion, I.e. 1916 Mercury dimes). So if you're trying to make an investment and solely an investment in precious metals, it shouldn't really matter. If you're planning on reselling/making a profit/letting go of the investment later, then yes by all means get the more rare coins. This is certainly an interesting discussion. Jasper |
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
The reason why there is a shortage of bullion silver is that
those who hold silver won't sell just now, because they will be forced to make a loss, so they have withdrawn from the market.
That includes dealers.
If you can buy silver, then go for it, but just remember:
IMO, the price of silver will probably continue to fall in the short term.
Medium to long term, you are likely to make a profit, but only if you sell in the medium to long term future.
It's really just another form of gambling.
That is, of course, you are not too worried about the current silver price, and just like stacking.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Always remember that coins should never be used for an investment.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1613 Posts |
I've been doing the same. Until a few weeks ago I would buy bulk and silver coins when silver was around $14 an ounce. BU common date Peace dollars at around $17-$20 and bu Mercury dimes for close to five. Now that silver has dropped to around $12 an ounce I've switched to bars and rounds. Over the years I've sold some coin bullion when the spot reached $20.00. I have not sold any rounds as these will be my retirement hedge in another nine years. Hopefully the spot will be somewhere close to thirty leaving me with a 100% return. Hopefully. Either way, a conservative estimate on both at that time should be in the 60% range. ANA member - PAN Member - BCCS Member There are no problems only solutions - the late, great John Lennon
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Valued Member
United States
442 Posts |
I got into coin collecting because silver had gone from $42ish to $14. I had done well buying into the stock market when it tanked in 2008, 2009. So I figured here was another opportunity to buy when everyone else was panicking. First, all I wanted was silver and cull coins for the silver value. Over the years I have gotten more and more interested in the collectible side of the hobby. And I think both have value. I have educated myself, and found lots of online tools, that can help me find bargains. Maybe it's a roll of XF Franklins that go for under melt. Or a 1878 8TF Morgan that goes for $25 because everyone was saving their money for all the MS CC Morgans later in the auction. That 8TF graded out at MS63. I could easily sell it for. a profit, but never will.
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
Buy in gloom, sell in doom !  |
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Valued Member
 United States
212 Posts |
Just Carl l'm not a fan of "always" or "never." But why do you say that?
Edited by Kawliga
03/28/2020 09:29 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4469 Posts |
Keep numismatics collecting and silver stacking separate. Do the math, if silver goes up $20 on buying one ounce of numismatic silver (common date Morgan MS64) where the price can be impacted by spot vs total ounces of stacking silver you get for the same price paid for the Morgan. Numismatics collecting is about rarity, eye appeal and condition. ebay is typically not a good venue to purchase stacking silver as the seller has to pay the ebay and pay pal juice and it cuts the margin. You can often do better buying stacking silver from dealers, this site's buy and sell, etc. If you want to purchase numismatics coins ebay, it is a good place to buy. |
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Valued Member
United States
128 Posts |
Watch buying junk coins too. I see one bag of $500 in quarters for over 8k at a popular silver seller. The current silver content is $2.6 each: that's $5200 silver value at current spot (14.xx). https://www.NGCcoin.com/price-guide...-values.aspx may help, or other sites like it. if you have a good amount to spend, a couple places that won't ship but make you store it to resell back to them have 1000 oz bars available at something akin to spot+profit price range. Everything smaller is either out of stock or labeled out of stock until price recovers, depending on whether you believe they emptied the vaults or closed them for a bit. I haven't seen anything near spot price since it dipped under $15. The best I see now is 16/oz which will eventually be profitable, but its high vs spot. And the 1k oz bars may also be gone now. Those are less desired: they are reported on your income tax when you sell. |
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
There is no relationship between the numismatic and the bullion price for any coin.
Having said that most of the time, both the numismatic and the bullion price for coins generally tend to be counter cyclical to the current economic conditions.
However, when there is a sudden economic crisis, as there is right now, everyone wants cash to be able to meet their current and near future financial responsibilities. That means the price of everything else falls: shares, bullion, numismatic items, real estate, and even cash investments.
Nobody wants to sell capital investments whatever they are, unless they are forced to, in order to raise cash, otherwise a loss will be realized. That includes bullion.
Bullion dealers simply withdraw from the market, and that is why bullion is scarce, despite the price being low, except perhaps, for gold.
Also, numismatic collectors simply go quiet, and also withdraw from the market. Most numismatic collectors do not really concern themselves about the value of their collections, after they have acquired the coins they are looking for.
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I hope this provides some background as to why there is little to no relationship between bullion and numismatic values, other than the market bullion value that a numismatic item may have.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4469 Posts |
Quote:
There is no relationship between the numismatic and the bullion price for any coin. The closer the gold or silver numismatic coin is to the spot price the stronger the relationship is to bullion spot price. Look at common date numismatic $20 gold that sell near spot. The price is always going up and down depending on the spot price of gold. Common date numismatic Morgans MS65 and under also trend up and down based on the spot price. |
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Valued Member
United States
128 Posts |
There is no relationship between the numismatic and the bullion price for any coin.
This is true. What I am calling junk coins are only really of value for the bullion price alone: if not for their silver content (or gold etc) the condition would have them worth face value.
If you were looking to buy 'junk coin' silver, just be wary of the pricing, is all I wanted to say. That attractive 'big price drop, IN STOCK, blah blah' banner on it doesn't mean its a good buy...
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Replies: 12 / Views: 1,522 |
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Posted 03/24/2020 01:08 am
