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How Does The Charlton Guide Come Up With Its Price Estimates?

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Silver101's Avatar
Canada
1081 Posts
 Posted 03/29/2020  11:02 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Silver101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
I've been doing a lot of slogging through the results of past auctions, comparing the prices people are paying for various coins of interest - also lining them up against PCGS POP reports and that sort of thing.

While I respect the Charlton guide as a guide - there's a ton of useful information in there - their prices quite frequently don't make sense.

Does anyone know how they come up with those prices? Or perhaps more specifically who comes up with those prices? My conspiracy theorist side has some theories but, well, lets leave that side of me out of this.....
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Canada
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 Posted 03/29/2020  11:25 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add okiecoiner to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The prices in Charlton (or Trends) are NOT what the market price is. You can go to most any larger coin show up here North of the border and buy coins at approx 70% of Charlton or Trends IF you know the dealer, but most will discount. They will buy the coins at 50-60%, or less, of the same books. It used to be (when I knew folks at Charlton) a consensus of various dealers, but that was 7-8 years ago. I think that ebay "sold" prices are a good indicator, coupled with auction prices for the higher graded stuff that doesn't come up very often.
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doubleeagle59's Avatar
Canada
2495 Posts
 Posted 03/29/2020  11:52 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add doubleeagle59 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
They will buy the coins at 50-60%


Not a snowball's chance in H-E double hockey sticks a dealer will buy your coins at this percentage.

Those days are long, long gone.

More like 35% and most dealers don't even want to buy at all.
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Silver101's Avatar
Canada
1081 Posts
 Posted 03/29/2020  12:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I know at least one dealer who buys but he's very selective - problem-free, key dates only. That is, coins that have a reasonable chance of re-sale.
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doubleeagle59's Avatar
Canada
2495 Posts
 Posted 03/29/2020  12:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add doubleeagle59 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I know at least one dealer who buys but he's very selective - problem-free, key dates only. That is, coins that have a reasonable chance of re-sale.


There will always be these exceptions to the rule.

I'm talking about going into a dealer's shop and having a box of ICCS Canadian coins to sell.

Good coins, not junk, but not key dates either.

Let's say coins like 1916 10c in ms63, 1940 25c in ms64, 1919 5c in ms63.

Good coins right?

Try selling those at 50 to 60%.

Good luck.

95% of the coin prices listed in Canadian Trends should be sliced in half......50%....then and only then you have a more realistic value of Retail.

Then a dealer would offer 50% to 60% of this new value (which would equate to the dealer offering 25% to 30% of the present, overvalued amount).

See, this make sense now, doesn't it?
Edited by doubleeagle59
03/29/2020 1:01 pm
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Silver101's Avatar
Canada
1081 Posts
 Posted 03/29/2020  1:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
yeah, I'm sure you're right about that. I'm mostly building at the moment so I have limited experience trying to sell. I'm sure there's a line up of people who would want to buy one of my, at least, 15 copies of the 1947 Newfoundland 5c right? I mean come on - they're at lease VF-20!

Anyway?

Hellooooo....

<crickets chirping>
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doubleeagle59's Avatar
Canada
2495 Posts
 Posted 03/29/2020  2:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add doubleeagle59 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It is a very good time for collecting.

Just do it for the passion and not for the profit and be firm on the price you want to pay for a coin.

Don't let a dealer bamboozle you into thinking the market is strong so thay can justify their high prices.

Pay between 50% to a maximum of 70% of trends.

If this is too low for the dealers, then you can be patient and find it eventually on ebay, most likely for 40% to 60% of trends.

I've been actively buying and selling in this market (to dealers and on ebay) since 1999, so I should know a thing or two about pricing.
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Canada
194 Posts
 Posted 07/19/2020  3:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sergiomomesso to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You are absolutely right on this, I tried to sell some normal date, high grades coins, they all said the same thing :

"i have plenty coins that I cant get rid of at the moments"

So, they were open to trade but not to buy. When I showed up with key dates, it's another story, they sell well and fast but still around maximum 60-65% book price.

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DannysCoinsYEG's Avatar
Canada
15 Posts
 Posted 07/20/2020  5:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DannysCoinsYEG to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Out west here, dealers are basically trying yo give away stuff at half of trends. Even key date ICCS and PCGS graded Victorian stuff is not moving at 50% discount of trends. If this is happening now, what will happen when the financial situations of collectors and people who had disposable income to spend on coins etc.? I can tell you it's heading the way of the stamps out west here (if its not a key date or high grade it is basically selling for face or melt value) Right now everyone I know is selling more bullion and almost no actual numismatic coins.
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Pacificoin's Avatar
Canada
5392 Posts
 Posted 07/20/2020  6:33 pm  Show Profile   Check Pacificoin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Pacificoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Anyone with a bunch of Solid VF or better ( properly graded ) Victoria or Edward 10, 20, 25 or 50 cents
That wishes to sell @ 50 per cent of CCN trends Just let me know , I am in.
Goes for nice World Crowns as well . Could use a bunch of key date 1945
To 1948 Dollars in 63 or better added to the list .
ebay has been so good for sales in this pandemic , I would drool to buy a nice parcel right now with money not an issue!
The Canadian Coin Market is not doom and gloom , save maybe Canada .
But that was never the REAL market anyways .
I anxiously await any parcels , but highly suspect .........crickets .
Edited by Pacificoin
07/20/2020 6:39 pm
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papeldog's Avatar
Canada
1923 Posts
 Posted 07/20/2020  7:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add papeldog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I haven't really sold any coins to any dealers for a few years but 50% was the norm a few years back. I use all coin book prices as a point to work from not really a set price but a starting point for bartering. I agree with Pacificoin about nice graded coins will move better than common grades if graded they move even better, I prefer EF and better myself. Common coins will always be less money more to choose from, the higher the grade the better. I think variety coins have an edge on regular coins of the same year. My opinion only
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silverwolf's Avatar
Canada
3733 Posts
 Posted 07/20/2020  8:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add silverwolf to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
me as well, I would be second on board for someone selling nice coins at 50% of trends, I would love to see some examples of what you are seeing, because I am ready to buy..
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Pacificoin's Avatar
Canada
5392 Posts
 Posted 07/20/2020  9:32 pm  Show Profile   Check Pacificoin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Pacificoin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@silverwolf ......darn , competition already ! Trouble is we won't get offered 1 NICE coin at those levels .
As to the comments about going the way of Stamp Collecting , umm no never going to happen.
In fact some of my stamp colleagues are seeing increasing prices!
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47P7's Avatar
Canada
1505 Posts
 Posted 07/20/2020  11:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 47P7 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Papeldog
you are 100% right.
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DannysCoinsYEG's Avatar
Canada
15 Posts
 Posted 07/21/2020  02:00 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DannysCoinsYEG to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There are deals to be found if you look around. For example I picked up some MS-60 to MS-64 ICCS graded victorian large cents at 60% off of trends with the impression to trade/sell and then pick up some key dates with the fund etc. I managed to sell most to get my money back and make $5-10/coin but jeez it is not wort the time and effort. With regards to key dates at discounts, I have managed to pick up keys such as '25 nickels for 50% of trends all day long now. Even some keydate Victorian NFLD which were graded in EF+ I have been offered at 50% and I have passed on them. I believe this to be the beginning of a harsh new reality of the market. Don't get me started on the Canadian paper money market out west here... Have been picking up 1937 series and devil's face for close to face...
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Silver101's Avatar
Canada
1081 Posts
 Posted 07/21/2020  05:49 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The key is to do your homework. Trends and Charlton may be somewhat arbitrary but, for better or worse, they're part of the conversation.

In fact, my biggest coups have been when the person making the sale was unaware of what they had or didn't care. I was able to pick up an 1898 NFLD 50c small w, obv 1 as a package deal with a large w obv 2 for $200. [Both are ~VF/EF]. And, looking at my notes for the last two years I see that I've purchased two 1876 recut 7 over high 7 NFLD pennies: one for $575 the other for $73 both are ~EF. Also two 1882 20 cent - $320 for one (NGC graded XF), $62 for the other - ungraded but in the same ball park. Inevitably, the higher price went to the person who knew what he was doing.
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