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 Replies: 14 / Views: 1,344 |
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Valued Member
United States
122 Posts |
I am sure there is literature on the subject. The USA had tremendous inflation for close to ten years. I expect that we will see more of that starting in about 18 months. This is my personal feeling. I would like to know what to expect from coin values during such a period. Does anybody out there have any documentation on this factor? Thanks a lot.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2602 Posts |
Hey that's a good question and I'm eager to hear thoughts on this too!  I don't have any knowledge since I was a youngster at that time. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5318 Posts |
Perhaps a good starting point for discussion might be some figures of trends for coins during this period.
I'll look around for some numbers.
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Valued Member
United States
226 Posts |
I have to agree with Big-byte on the issue of an inflationary period that is sure to follow this recession. I too have recently wondered how this will effect coin values. I also think that the very near future will be good for coin buyers. I am looking forward to your search results Kurt.  |
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
I'm not sure how far back their figures go, but check the CU3000 on the PCGS site/
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
From what my old aged brain can recall, I've never seen coin prices drop at all in over 60 years of collecting. I've seen coin prices level off, stay basically the same, but I never can remember a coins prices dropping. I remember the amount of coin shows deminishing. Coin stores closing or beginning to sell other items for collecting. There used to be a really great coin departemnt in a large department store in the area I used to work. Way, way back they started to also sell baseball/football cards and other sporting items since coins were leveling off in sales. That too was in the late 70's to 80's. All through ups and downs in the stock market, recessions, etc I've just never seen coin prices fall.
A good example is that coin shows are more popular than ever lately. And that makes me mad. I was kind of hoping with all this talk about how bad things are that the coin shows would be empty and I could haggle down prices better. But with those crowds, not much chance there.
I don't know what statistics would show, but I do know from memmory that coins just don't go down in value.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10284 Posts |
Except for the famous Hunt Brothers trying to corner the silver market in 1979, there was a steady slow growth in coins. This was before the encapsulated grading really took off in the 80's and higher graded coins seemed to skyrocket. I recall most common coins did little in value increases while the key coins and classics seemed to have a more healthy rise in values.
Things kind of stagnated at the beginning of the 80's except for "slabbed" MS65 and better coins. Then some interest was sparked in the 7 varieties of Lincolns, the beginning of modern commemorative coins and the 1983 doubled die reverse Lincoln was widely publicized. I put a lot more attention into antiques and collectibles after that and wandered off collecting coins.
Seems to me that collectibles and antiques do quite well in good times, but coins hold their own in bad.
Silver and Gold kept dropping in good times. My brother suggested I get and buy it up in the mid 90's but nobody ever thought it would get like it is today.
I remember the gas lines and unemployment and ridiculous minimum wages of the early 70's.
But I think that these times are similar but far more serious. The way things are going, I think we are maybe going to be lucky to get out of this or it will make the great depression look like a walk in the park. So much greed and corruption, it's scary.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2734 Posts |
A pair of old Redbooks (1970 and 1980) would answer that question! I like to read my 1966 RedBook and adjust its prices for inflation with an online inflation calculator. When you check the long-term values of coins adjusted for inflation, you might find a few surprises. Here's a good one from the 1947 RedBook: An "Uncirculated" 1909-S Indian Head cent was valued at double the value of an "Uncirculated" 1909-S VDB Lincoln Cent!  Consider that what we now call "Wheat Cents" were the regular circulation issue at the time! The Indian was a whopping $30, compared to the S-VBD at $15. That's $286.20 and $143.10 respectively, adjusted for inflation. If Grandpa bought an MS-63 1909-S Indian Head cent in 1947 and left it to you, the coin is now valued at $1,100 in the 2009 RedBook. The coin almost quadrupled in inflation-adjusted value. Not too bad, eh? Then again, if Grandpa bought an MS-63 1909-S VDB Lincoln Cent in 1947, that coin is now valued at $2300, which means that it's now worth sixteen times as much in inflation-adjusted value!  Edited by DNA
04/17/2009 4:37 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3294 Posts |
That is a 8.1% annual improvement on the S-VDB, so that's not bad at all. And if you can assume it will continue at that rate, in 10 years it will be valued about $5200.
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Valued Member
United States
327 Posts |
Coin Collecting is allegedly the second most popular hobby in the US according to an article I read somewhere. If this is true, then it stands to reason that many of those collectors faced with a poor economy with money to invest will look at coins first
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2734 Posts |
I don't think that numismatic-valued coins are going to appreciate too much in inflation-adjusted value for the next few years, due to the fundamental problems in the economy. In other words, if the S-VDB is $5200 ten years from now, most of that price gain could be from inflation.   The good news is that the S-VDB should not lose in inflation-adjusted value, it should continue to be worth at least the equivalent to "$2300 in 2008 Dollars" for the foreseeable future, and I would certainly bet that it would have some increase in inflation-adjusted value. The "$5200 in 2019 Dollars" might be "$3000 in 2008 Dollars" in Big-byte's viewpoint... |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
As I was mentioning though you really can't base this on statistics. And you for sure can not base values in the past on the Red Book nor any books. The only sure method is to have been there. Like I said, I just never remember seeing coin prices drop. Yes they have leveled off at times, but never dropped. I've been collecing coins for well over 60 years and I sure wish there was a time when the prices fell. Where I grew up there was a coin store, actually a hobby store but mostly coins. I spent a lot of time there in the 40's and 50's. The coin prices there never went down. At that age I couldn't go driving around for better deals though. |
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Valued Member
United States
259 Posts |
I think that prices for obsolete and scarce coinage will continue to rise, even with inflation adjustment. World populations are rising. The way I look at it is: The more people living in the world, the more coin collectors in the world. If the number of coin collectors that want an S-VDB keeps going up, but obviously no more S-VDBs are being minted... the law of supply and demand dictates that prices will rise.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2541 Posts |
Sadly, more coins are being minted in China.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1055 Posts |
From all the "old timers" I have talked to aligns with what has already been said, coin prices never drop. common issues may become stagnant for a while but never dropped. It seems to always come back to supply and demand.
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Replies: 14 / Views: 1,344 |
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Posted 01/29/2009 5:49 pm
