Making Sense Of PCGS Survival And Rarity Estimates

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Author	Replies: 3 / Views: 1,633
MisterT Pillar of the Community United States 2003 Posts	Posted 07/22/2022 12:02 am I'm trying to make sense of the PCGS estimated survival population and the rarity factor. In one example the 1909S vdb cent, it is estimated that the survival population is 50,000 and the rarity factor is R2.5 Then I am confused by this next example because PCGS has graded a total of 7500 of the 1909S Indian cents, yet the survival estimate is only 3,000 and the rarity factor is R4.4 How can the survival estimate be lower than the actual graded examples? So my question would be, How accurate are the estimated survival numbers and would it be better to consider the rarity factors rather than survival rate when cherrypicking coins. Report this Post to the Staff

SpeedDemonND Valued Member United States 357 Posts	Posted 07/22/2022 02:11 am This may provide some helpful information, if you haven't already seen it: https://www.PCGS.com/news/tips-on-u...-coinfacts-8 As far as survival estimates and number of graded examples...the number of graded examples includes coins that have continuously been resubmitted, therefore this number is always going to increase. If there is a huge difference in price between two different grades of a coin, collectors will continue to resubmit that coin in the hopes that it'll one day get a higher grade. This affects the number of graded examples, but obviously does nothing to change the survival estimate since it's the same coin. Hopefully this helps. Report this Post to the Staff
MisterT Pillar of the Community United States 2003 Posts	Posted 07/22/2022 04:01 am SpeedDemonND, Thank you for your perspective. I never even considered the possibility of re-submissions being counted in the total of graded coins. So even though we are just talking "estimates", The posted survival population should still be a good indicator as well as the rarity factor. Report this Post to the Staff
Jaobler Pillar of the Community United States 6383 Posts	Posted 07/25/2022 11:38 pm I appreciate the estimated survivor stats in PCGS CoinFacts. They are useful for comparing rarity of different dates but at best they are educated guesses. Report this Post to the Staff
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