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Replies: 14 / Views: 1,342 |
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Moderator
 United States
23507 Posts |
Over the years there has been discussion as to why people collect, some do it for history, some do it for fun, some do it for investment, there are many reasons. In the United States there is a concern over what is happening with the Mint and the Federal Reserve. There have been past forum discussions on the Amero. My question to the forum is- If you were now going to collect coins and/or banknotes for investment, would you purchase American Coins and Banknotes or would it be wiser to invest in Chinese coins and banknotes as they are now financing much of the US debt. This is NOT a discussion about the American President or Politics. It is a fact finding mission as to what you think of the possible future value of Chinese money  rggoodie aka Richard "catch em doing something right"
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1083 Posts |
American coins and banknotes.
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Moderator
 United States
6563 Posts |
IF I were to collect any coins solely as an investment I'd only want to do bullion coins. That being said then I would trust Chinese coins the least as they are the most highly counterfeited.
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Moderator
  United States
23507 Posts |
I believe bullion is the best but I have a feeling it may help to have some Chinese money in the future for more than collecting?
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Valued Member
United States
357 Posts |
There is no currency better then the U.S.Dollar for the most secure investment for the long run. Even thou the chinese are growing in leaps and bounds, that I feel, Is masking many many internal problems of all types because of its fast growth its only a matter of time before the p**p hits the fan. look what happen to Iceland, All that fast wealth over night, and it all got out of hand. I know my other side of my family lives there.
Edited by norseman012 03/26/2009 12:17 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3098 Posts |
The problem for any of you is that you can't get it in the USA OR the west. It's not a freely traded currency so you can't just go to the bank and order a few hundred. But, for me, who came to the states in the 1st grade, and many other first gen immigrants, we have a bunch so when we go back, we would already have money to spend. My pic on my profile shows a bit of what I have.  But, in an financial perspective, the PBC - People's Bank of China, will not allow the RMB to fluctuate. China still needs the cheap RMB to supply its growth. So, if you get any, it would be a few years until you see it really grow (2004 it was $1 = RMB 8.27, now it's $1 to RMB 6.82), but that was only until the central bank allowed it to start floating. But if you ever go to China, you will see and hear that "Wow! Everything is so cheap!" That's because on parity of wages and spending, about 2.5 RMB has about the same purchasing power as $1. Will it ever get to $1 = 2.5 RMB? Not really considering the status quo, but if and only if the world stops keeping USD as a reserve will that happen. (And that's going to take a lot of grease to happen. I can say 90% of the world is still dependent on the USD and the fact that the US has the most robust economy in the world and the runner up, Germany, has been sucked into the now-cracking Eurozone.) So... there's my thoughts.
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Moderator
 Australia
16826 Posts |
For years, people have been saying that "third world" coins are sleepers, on the theory that one day these countries will emerge from third world poverty and a new generation of native collectors will want to collect the coins from their country's past. But whatever you might think of this theory, China is an exception to it.
China's history goes back much further than other "emerging economies", and it already has a long history of coin collecting - they've been collecting coins there for over 1000 years, and the "alien" nature of the language and the coinage itself makes it difficult for a westerner to fully appreciate the series. As a result, the vast majority of collectors of Chinese coins and notes are actually in China, and this is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future - so those theoretical "future collectors" are already there, and already affecting supply and demand.
The added complication to all this is the matter of fake coins, which are particularly numerous in the Chinese series. It really means that you have to already be very familiar with the series to have any hope of detecting fakes - which makes it hard for new collectors to enter the field.
All of this means that I don't think Chinese coins are going to increase in value any more than other coin series will. Collect them if you like them, but I wouldn't recommend them as an investment.
Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
3831 Posts |
I have to disagree with the points above. Let's take it into the other perspective and a good example is Russian coins. In the past, collectors would be like bah hambug or boycotted anything that was commie. Sure not a problem - there wasn't much demand overseas back then and the general Russian population either didn't care or weren't encouraged to collect (perhaps people looked at you strangely back then).
When prices crashed during 1990s, some collectors took advantage of it and bought what was cheap. 20 years down the road, prices of many coins are outrageously expensive in their own home country and many buyers tend to buy them back from us. For instance, 1970-2 mint sets, 1957, 1961 cardboard mint set, pattern coins and a lot of the gold and platinum Tsarist coins. Doing a quick price comparison in auction houses will help to illustrate my point.
Back to the Chinese coinages, I guess it depends on how "patriotic" Chinese collectors will become and that will determine how fast the price rise. Counterfeits just add to a big challenge to it - if you really own a genuine coin, I don't see how flooding counterfeits undermine the prices of rarities. For the general public, yes but for serious collectors, it has a thrill factor.
In short, I think Chinese coinages are still underrated. However don't take my word for it - try looking up some Chinese mint sets struck back in 1980s, especially proof mint sets. Prices may shock you.
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Valued Member
United States
414 Posts |
The crown-size silver coin from Qing are no cheap even now. MOst of them have condition problem. I got most of them in PCGS or NGC slabbs for safty. Image: Y254o.jpg70.8 KB Image: Y254r.jpg57.92 KB
Edited by monster 03/27/2009 7:18 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
I would like to completely disagree with everyone. I suspect that all monitary items are soon going to be collectables only. By that I mean I really don't see a future for our US coins or anyone elses either. Same with currency. Maybe not right now but very, very soon money as we all know it will slowly vanish. Many people even now do not carry money. My Son is an example. He neve carries money. He does have some change in his car just in case, but his system is 99% plastic. I've seen him just wave his card at a gas pump. In restaurants, grocery stores, general stores, anywhere, plastic is taking over. Trade between different countries is becoming so common that a universal type of monitary system will soon be a necessity, not a possibility. And that system will be electronic. No more trying to figure out how much something costs in Turkey, Germany, China, Brasil, etc. Just show your plastic card and the computer will take care of how much things costs. Even now Europe is attempting to standarize a monitary system but that too will soon be outdated. Why have numerous monitary systems when a computer will transpose all transactions. I really believe that our so called monitary systems are on their way out. Just watch what goes on at any store today. \ Someday soon a kid will be saying, "Hey Gramps, what was that stuff you people used to use and collect called money?"
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
3831 Posts |
Good luck trying to use your credit card in Japan or China, just carl. It just doesn't work out - people there don't trust cards.
My partial coin collection http://www.omnicoin.com/collection/gxseriesMy numismatics articles and collection: http://www.gxseries.com/numis/numis_index.htmRegularly updated at least once a month.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3098 Posts |
Quote: credit card in Japan or China Japan possibly, but in HK and mainland, it's cash all the way! (Maybe that's why there are HKD1000 notes)
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10045 Posts |
Quote: ...would it be wiser to invest in Chinese coins and banknotes as they are now financing much of the US debt. I suppose if there's a growing collector base in China, and one knows enough to know exactly what to buy? Otherwise, I'm not sure if currency fluctuations alone would bolster value in Chinese coins, because demand-->price. So if US currency/collector buying power wanes, that's another hit to demand on things from China/Asia. I would think to invest in China's currency, one would have to know the details of their banking system--and that's not exactly transparent. How much did they funnel into MBS?
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Quote:
Good luck trying to use your credit card in Japan or China, just carl. It just doesn't work out - people there don't trust cards.
Maybe not now but soon enough people everywhere will just have to change. People are already a little nutty when trying to purchase something in another country and have no idea how much it costs. Soon this will be true of people everywhere. Why should there be someone standing in a store trying to figure out how much something costs. No, the computerized monitary system is the only way to standardize all monitary systems. You purchase something for some unknown amount in some oddball country, insert your card, it tells you that item costs xxx of your total amount available. You do not learn a monitary system, you only learn quantities available and amounts of that used for a sale. You pay check goes into that account electronically and you go to your computer and it tells you you know have xxxxx for usage. No dollars, no peso, no arguments about a cent vs a penny. Everything is just amounts. Notice even now how many companies want you to have your pay check sent electronically? Ever notice how many companies want you to pay on line? Ever notice how many stock brokers want you to accept an electronic statement? Everything will soon enough be electronic. Notice how many toll roads are now electronic and fewer and fewer toll booths? Notice how many cameras are going up to catch traffic violators and the fine is sent out to you and your requested to pay electronically. Keep watching. I'll bet soon a kid will have to have a credit card for a gum ball machine. Or are there some already?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1840 Posts |
I'd go wiht U.S. coins. We have an established market full of people willing to overpay, especially for key dates.
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Replies: 14 / Views: 1,342 |
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